Philip Giraldi’s Deep Background from the American Conservative for September 25th
The Pentagon continues to develop a series of contingency plans that respond to the likely scenarios that the US will face in the event the President orders direct military action against Iran after the November elections. The following scenario, based on intelligence analysis, suggests a rapidly escalating conflict that might only be concluded through the use of nuclear weapons:
If the US conducted an air assault against Iran, the Persian Gulf island of Bahrain, which has a majority Shi’a population that has been strongly influenced by Tehran in the past, would become a prime target, particularly since the US Navy has a major base there. The Joint Chiefs expect that Iran’s national TV would begin calling for an uprising on the island and that US F-16s belonging to Bahrain’s Air Force and military communications centers could easily be taken out through sabotage, making the government isolated and vulnerable. An uprising of Fifth Column partisans in Manama would be able to overwhelm security forces and seize control of government and media centers. The U.S Fifth Fleet is based at the tip of Bahrain, but if the government became unstable, there isn’t much the US could do to prop it up. Manama would become a battlefield and Iran would probably be able to make successful strikes against Bahrain’s air defenses, eliminating any ability to resist. Control of Bahrain would give Iran the key to Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf by way of the strategic King Fahd Causeway, whose possession would provide Iran with a land bridge into the region.
Iran’s Kilo-class subs, purchased from Russia, would be able to patrol the waters of the Gulf and disrupt key shipping lanes. Since Iran has underground missile batteries for HY-2 Silkworm and Scud C missiles on the southwest tip of Abu Musa Island, it could also hit any point in the Gulf, forcing the US to take those batteries out. Iran would then probably opt to make devastating strikes on the tiny oil rich emirates lining the gulf, including the UAE, Abu Dhabi and Dubai and could also begin to attack Saudi Arabia with a series of car bombs, using high quality hexogene and the plastic explosive pentaerythritol tetra nitrate (PTN). Major terrorist bombings of Saudi targets would begin and could include all major cities and oil producing centers. Surviving Iranian missiles and small suicide craft would be used to try to close the Straits of Hormuz. By then the US would be forced to broaden the scope of its attacks, striking Tehran as well as all of Iran’s other major cities and ports, densely populated areas that would produce thousands of civilian casualties. Another concern is that the Iranians would activate their Hezbollah cells that are presumed to have entered the United States via Mexico since 1984. Such cells, if present, might attack soft targets in the continental United States, to include trains, subways, malls, and sports stadiums. If Iran were to unleash its terrorist surrogates, the US military would probably argue for the use of tactical nuclear weapons to end the conflict.
