11/24/13 – Nima Shirazi – The Scott Horton Show

For KPFK November 24th, 2013.
I'm Scott Horton.
This is anti-war radio All right, everybody welcome to show I'm your host Scott Horton This is anti-war radio here every Sunday morning from 830 to 9 on KPFK 90.7 FM in LA you can find my full interview archive at scotthorton.org more than 3,000 of them now going back to 2003 and you can follow me on Facebook Twitter and YouTube at slash Scott Horton show this morning's guest is Nima Shirazi Rests a great blog why to sleep in America at why to sleep in america.com and he's an editor at muftah.org That's muftah Org welcome back to the show good to talk to you again.
Thanks so much for having me Scott.
Hey Congratulations celebrations.
They did it the Democrats actually signed a deal with the Iranians.
Yeah, indeed.
It's been a fascinating Number of days.
I know a lot of reporters who were in the intercontinental hotel in Geneva waiting for these talks to To get done and for some news to be reported and I know that they were working very hard and there was finally something to Report late on this Saturday night Yeah, I saw where Trita was saying at one point.
He kind of had a negative attitude He's hearing negative things But then he says that wait a minute This is going way too late into the night for them to they obviously Think they really have a deal at hand here or yeah There was a period I think you're you're absolutely right.
It really kind of started to lag for a period It looked like there was going to be a deal like there was going to be an announcement earlier in the day today on Saturday the foreign ministers of Of all seven countries that were involved were there in Geneva.
That's John Kerry and Hagen Fabius and the reef and and and Lavrov and everyone else So it was it was really a something to see and I think that everyone was was really expecting something Earlier in the day and then as the talks dragged on and there was nothing to report I think people started becoming a little wary of what was actually going on But for my part, I think the the longer things took and the less that we heard was actually a really good sign it meant that there was actually real diplomacy going on behind those those closed doors and that Those those foreign ministers were we're really trying to get something done.
Obviously people are going to have certain Negative and also positive reactions to what the final result was so there's plenty to talk about there's plenty Unresolved issues, of course, there's plenty of apprehension.
There's plenty of very negative Ridiculous reactions from from from obvious sectors, which I'm sure we can get into a little later.
But generally something very good came out of this if if nothing else it proved that Diplomacy can work.
It pretty much guaranteed that War is off the table for any foreseeable future.
If not forever in terms of Attacks on Iran.
There's no way I Believe Israel would unilaterally attack Iran after a deal has been signed with five Nuclear powers that the five permanent members of the Security Council as well as Germany There's no way that this can be undermined unilaterally by Israel Obviously, I have no illusions as to what Israel is capable of doing and they have very little regard for international law or diplomacy But I think we're a bit beyond that now and it proves a number of things Correct that anti-war folks have been saying for a very long time.
It it pretty much guarantees That we won't see the end to certain talking points such as that sanctions worked however If you actually look at what the deal is and how and how all this was Resolved and where it's moving forward.
It really shows that sanctions Really did not work in this case and that they were clearly just a punitive measure That that wound up hurting Iranian people and had no bearing on the outcome of any of this Well, go ahead and prove your case there well for one the the contours of the deal are actually very reminiscent of Positions that Iran has been promoting offers and proposals that they've been putting forward to the same group of countries virtually for the past decade so since 2003 and then and then more more often in 2005 2006 and onward that Effectively Iran has been has been putting together Many of the of the very same proposals for quite some time in terms of capping enrichment to certain levels far below weapons grade in terms of halting the number of centrifuges they have operating at any given time and increasing inspections Increasing transparency stuff like that Iran has really been proposing that for an extremely long time So the sanctions really have just served as a delay and it's just let the Iranians build up a lot more to negotiate away That's precisely right I mean what we've been been hearing kind of a common little soundbite of the past few days has been that a Decade ago when these very same issues were effectively being discussed Iran had fewer than 3,000 centrifuges spinning they were not enriching Uranium at any gigantic gigantic levels they were enriching to two levels far below 20% even which is not even weapons grade.
It's it's basically for for the use of in medical research reactors For for for medical isotopes so at the time they were enriching to about three point five percent Which they still are but three point five percent Which is good only for nuclear reactor fuel having nothing to do with weapons production and now a decade later after all of these sanctions international multilateral unilateral all of these sanctions have been heaped upon Iran and the people of Iran and And and and what and what do these people have to show for it?
Well Iran has over 19,000 centrifuges spinning they enrich To just under 20% Uranium and and they have facilities that are operational and safeguarded that Didn't even exist ten years ago, so if we look at if we look at some of the elements of the deal Iran is committed to effectively halt enrichment above five percent So that that means that you know they will no longer operate their centrifuges that Enriched to nearly 20% for the Tehran research reactor Which which is the the medical facility?
They have committed to neutralize their stockpile of that higher enriched uranium It's still low enriched uranium according to IAEA safeguards And nomenclature, but it is it is obviously higher enriched than the three point five percent and so what they're going to do with that is basically convert that to a form of Enriched uranium which cannot be be further reprocessed Towards weapons grade which they've never done in the past anyway, but they will basically preclude any diversion of this of this higher Nineteen point point seven five percent enriched uranium, which is a really big deal We've we've been hearing for quite some time now by Alarmists such as David Albright who we have talked about in the past and Israeli officials members of Congress all sorts of all sorts of naysayers That this 20% enriched uranium nearly 20% enriched uranium is a major proliferation risk It's just a stone's throw away from weapons grade Obviously we centrifuges need to be completely refigured and they wouldn't be able to do it without the IAEA inspectors Readily knowing that that was happening, but hey, whatever either way this has been kind of Noted as as a real as a real risk this this 20% enriched uranium so now by taking that out of the equation completely a lot of the a lot of the hysteria Over Iran's intentions and potential really kind of go away.
Obviously.
I don't think they will go away I think we will keep hearing about things from these same people that the deal doesn't go far enough that with any capacity to enrich any uranium to any any Enrichment levels whatsoever will still pose this gigantic threat that obviously doesn't actually exist But we're supposed to think it exists But either way if you actually look at this at this deal on paper It goes a long way to dispelling a lot of these myths Disagree me if you like, but it seems to me very obvious that a conversation went on in Iran where they said look We never were making bombs.
We're not making bombs We've had our hands up, but let's just go ahead and bend over and let them do the strip search Who cares it all it, you know, even if they don't have a warrant at least that'll keep us from you know Protect us from the no-knock raid.
So come on in guys and look around.
There's nothing to see they've completely Bent over for the Americans demands here and they're getting some sanctions relief in return I I will push back on that just just a little bit the additional protocol and and Code 3.1 the modified code that is not yet part of this deal.
I think that will be at a later stage There are elements of those of those protocols which are evident here in this in this current deal, but in terms of Doing things that have been long-demanded of Iran that go far that that that fall far outside Of their safeguards agreements such as the IAEA gaining access to the Parchin medical Military complex, sorry That is not part of this deal.
So That is yet another issue which I I'm sure will will factor into future Negotiations, but it's not like they're opening everything that that has been demanded of them illegally That's true.
They're being very very accommodating and they're not even getting all that much in return So I mean they say here uranium mines the centrifuge facilities where they make them where you know this and they do say Modified code 3.1 right?
What am I missing there?
Yeah, no, no, that's that's that's certainly true, which and that that that covers basically for Whenever Iran, let's say decides to build a new a new facility a new nuclear facility Based on that decision not even once construction starts not even as it gets 180 days away from from actually introducing nuclear material to those sites after after construction is is Complete and it's it's ready to be operated.
Not even that just the basic decision of make of Constructing new facilities that decision would then be announced to the IAEA.
So no, you're you're absolutely right on that See, I'm sorry for overstating it because you're right Not every single thing is covered in here.
Obviously, this is just the preliminary agreement, whatever But my attitude has been that their attitude has been let's just put our hands up and cry Don't shoot and hope the rest of the world can hear us loud enough Because again, they never were making nukes in the first place.
They never tried to enrich a single molecule of uranium hexafluoride up to 90% Purity or 94 really is what's required for a bomb and never was the thing So where the North Koreans said you can beat us over the head so much and we'll go ahead and say screw you and make Nukes the Iranians took a different Decision way back ten years ago and said let's just keep our hands up and hope that the guaranteed non-diversion of our material on paper in every report will be enough to keep the American bombers at bay and Here, they're just going even further So it may not be like they're willing to slit their own throat, but they're certainly pulling their pants down No, certainly.
I mean they are going very very far.
You are you are absolutely right They are you know, not necessarily dis dismantling Cascades, but they are you know, rendering them inoperable.
They are limiting even the the the Centrifuge production that they currently have going on.
They're going to limit that So it only basically replaces damaged machines and they can't even use Six months down the line.
I mean, it's really interesting stuff They're you know promising not not to construct additional enrichment facilities or to install any any newer Centrifuges that they have Beyond this they're even saying that the current stockpile of low-enriched uranium the 3.5 Percent stockpile which is again only good to fuel nuclear reactors have no weapons Capability whatsoever.
They are agreeing to Effectively halt the growth of that stockpile completely over the course of six months So, you know while it may grow a little bit in six months by the end of the agreed to six months period It needs to be back down to the current levels of where it is right now So, I mean they are really accepting extreme limits beyond this.
We haven't even spoken about the reactor at Iraq which was a sticking point a couple weeks ago when talks kind of broke apart without without a Agreement.
I mean, it's it's pretty much Stopping it in its tracks.
I mean the Iraq facility is there are two separate facilities Present at that at that place very very close to one another.
There's a heavy water production plant, which is not a nuclear facility It just basically makes heavy water which then it's used as a moderator in a nuclear reactor So then basically across the street is this half-built nuclear reactor Which uses this heavy water as a moderator and by using heavy water as a moderator you effectively can use non-enriched uranium So just like basic like raw uranium as the reactor fuel because you have this heavy water as a moderator kind of changes it So whereas the Boucher reactor uses light water, which is just regular water Using light water you need, you know enriched uranium to make it work this one You don't so then the waste fuel that is produced Has a certain percent of that of that is plutonium and then that plutonium can be Extracted from this byproduct of the reactor fuel after it's used and once that's extracted It needs to be reprocessed and then it can easily be made into weapons-grade plutonium for a bomb now by the way even Extracting it means you got to turn the thing off for probably half a year or a year and let it exactly It's about you got to get the Russians.
I'll be taking it off usable Yeah, plus on top of that Iran does not even have a reprocessing plant So the whole alarmism over this over this reactor, which again is half-built It's not even going to be ready for months and months and months and months It's not a year after that It would take yet another year to even acquire the amount of waste product that would even be Usable to extract plutonium to then reprocess for one single bomb.
So this whole thing is this big hype About this facility, but nevertheless Again, as you've said what Iran is now willing to do with this facility is to not only not start it up within this period It's not going to put any fuel into it What it's going to do is it's even going to halt the production of fuel for it.
And again, it's under construction It's it's it is non-operational, but even so they're going to halt the production.
They're not going to test any fuel for it They're not going to install any additional reactor components for it in the meantime So it'll just sit there as is and they're not going to construct a facility capable of reprocessing So what we see here is Iran really going the extra mile right absolutely.
All right now, I'm Scott Horton This is anti-war radio.
I'm talking with Nima Shirazi and we're celebrating the Iran deal that would never come and finally came they did It's just the interim deal It's not the final deal and there's still plenty to be worked out and I guess that leads to the question of whether you think It's possible for the Israelis to screw this up now or we really have made that first step forward that We can't go back from I Think this is a huge step forward.
I think we will see in the coming days and weeks Israeli officials as well as their buddies in Congress and obviously lobbying efforts in DC Try really hard to undermine this deal and to sell it as some sort of Appeasement which we hear so often on the part of the Obama administration, but honestly, I think it's going to be hard to tear apart Yeah, I think so too.
It's sort of Well and now so then that leads to the question of you know Bigger picture what this means for the future of the region.
I could even anticipate maybe worse chaos in the sense of you know, maybe the Saudis will decide to dump a bunch of money into the Sunni insurgencies in Iraq and Syria and You know and then provoke Hezbollah into further intervention there and then who knows what it's it's a good thing But it means big changes for the future of the region and and the different alliance systems, doesn't it?
Oh Definitely.
I mean, I think if anything we might see Israel really try to provoke reactions from both Hezbollah and and Hamas which Saying that I mean doesn't actually speak to what that would actually mean provoking a reaction would actually be murdering innocent people and Doing eat far worse things than they already do in in the occupied territory So whether that's building more settlements, whether that's dropping bombs on families whether that's firing upon fishing boats All of this is going to continue so I could certainly see Israel try to do something to Kind of set something on fire in the meantime.
But again what just happened in Geneva This is between six gigantic world powers and Iran and this is Unprecedented.
This is a deal finally inked signed with a photo op and handshakes and hugs In front of international press in front of the entire world with Barack Obama coming out at around 1030 on a Saturday night before Thanksgiving and giving a statement to the press that's aired on national television This is a different different deal than anything before and I think Israel is really sweating right now I think AIPAC is really sweating right now.
I think foundation for the defense of democracy that Hilarious ridiculous neocon think-tank, but I think they're really worried that they're gonna fight back, but I think they're really worried right now Yeah, well, you're right.
That's a very important point what you say about this is not just a deal between the Americans and The Iranians this is a deal between All the allies of World War two and the UN security.
Oh and their archenemy Security Council plus Germany No, and I mean beyond this, you know, so if we look to ten years ago the major negotiating partners Were the EU three so you had, you know, Britain France and Germany, right?negotiating primarily with Iran And with with the u.s.
Effectively being a spoiler under the Bush administration Well, they were just trying to keep Dick Cheney at bay.
They weren't trying to resolve anything certainly, you know but even so a deal fell through because they wouldn't acknowledge Iran's right to enrich and they also did you know reneged on a lot of their promises, but Now you have the US signing on you have Russia signing on you of China signing on as well as these European powers and you have You know, you have a new administration in Iran, which has an excellent PR Strategy, which effectively I say that's in the best possible way to to to promote their own vision of diplomacy Without any bombast without any bluster.
They are known in the West.
They speak English, which Apparently is very very important for diplomacy to work in this Orientalist world of ours They've been educated in the West.
They have known a lot of their fellow diplomats for years and years and years They've worked with them.
This has really changed the tone So even though the Iranian position has not really changed over the years they still assert Their right under the NPT To enrich uranium they assert that they have full sovereignty over their own Nuclear fuel cycle and for a peaceful nuclear energy program in their own country they have been willing to have You know certain caps certain limitations certain Inspections all of this all of this has has not changed over the years What has changed is who's is who the who the diplomats saying it is and that apparently has really has really worked out this time Yeah, well, you know I'm always of the theory that Just because some people want one doesn't mean that America or Israel or anybody really needs any enemies at all And actually this could be great for the Saudis too.
And for everybody, you know, why should we have to have?
Sunni Shia civil war over there, which is all really just political this this really works out.
Well for everyone obviously as you said elements in in certain places whether it's Washington DC whether it's Tel Aviv whether it's Riyadh You know this this actually is a very Positive outcome.
This is some of the Israeli generals were saying so to the Christian Science Monitor that you know Despite what Netanyahu thinks we actually were considering it And it occurred to us that hey, why not have warmer relations with this former enemy state?
Absolutely, I mean if if the if the talking point has been for so long that a Iranian nuclear program that is close to having the capability not the will or the intention But just the capability technically to produce at least one Nuclear weapon if that then is no longer the case and it's internationally verified That's that's a very positive thing for even Israeli warmongers, but the thing is it's not really about that It's all about hegemony in the region.
It's all about if Iran has warmer relations and is able to freely trade freely use their oil assets freely conduct diplomacy if this can all happen it really undermines the Israeli position as this major military force in the region as the as the Obviously the the only nuclear armed force which which is not going to change Unfortunately for some time, and I don't mean that unfortunately because I think Iran's going to have a weapon quite the opposite I think because Israel needs to be disarmed and that I don't think it's going to happen for for a long while but either way Israel needs this military stranglehold in this diplomatic stranglehold with u.s..
Backing in the region to really remain a power that they are and to act with impunity against the Palestinian people and to undermine all international law and abrogate any known common human decency and so I'm in the opinion that their ability to do all that is bad for Israel really that they it's good that they're limited in their Interactions because they're destroying their own society, you know for their own sake they need an intervention Just so happens that it's in our interest to pursue one all right everybody again.
I'm Scott Horton this anti-war radio I'm talking with Nima Shirazi from why to sleep in America and Mufti.org and now so Nima what are the Americans giving up because it seems like it's not nearly as much as the Iranians are on this one It seems for the time being pretty pretty limited and Both both Obama and John Kerry have have really stressed in their comments following the deal that these are not not only limited concessions, but also temporary and Reversible so that I think is a way to kind of temper Negative reactions to this saying hey We can we can flip these back on in an instant if we if we believe Iran is not complying with what the agreement is And I think that's really kind of a hedge against all the negative reaction that they're sure to get especially from Congress The idea is certainly for all of the oil and banking sanctions For now for the next six months it has been guaranteed to Iran that there will be no new Nuclear related sanctions imposed on them which really kind of puts a stop to certain efforts in Congress right now There will not be any sanctions for six months.
They're going to suspend certain sanctions on gold and precious metals They're going to lift some some some sanctions on Iran's automobile industry and petrochemical exports They're also going to free up billions of dollars of assets Which have been held in escrow which are effectively Iran's money that has been held by Foreign banks and not allowed to be repatriated at least on paper it is said that certain humanitarian transactions are going to be exempt from these sanctions that the ability for Iran to purchase food and medicine and Even agricultural commodities are going to be lifted that will be facilitated through these as well as there are going to be certain Lifts on current bans for getting Iran better parts for airplanes to to fix their They're very old aircraft.
I mean so lifting those it's not a huge thing.
It's still very limited Sanctions relief, but hopefully it can set the stage for something much much better in the future.
Yeah, and you know People ought to support the president on this one, you know out loud let their congressman know participate to a degree somehow write a letter the editor something because This doesn't animate people as much as say for example The threat of war with Syria got the entire American people up on their hind legs yelling hell no about that Well, this is in support of peace and we need that it doesn't feel as much of like as much of an emergency But of course America's relationship with Iran right now is everything so a quick note about Syria We were hearing months ago, obviously that unless the u.s.
Bombed Syria Iran would just be emboldened and that then diplomacy would be Totally impossible because Iran would be totally unwilling to do anything that the u.s.says because they would see the u.s. as a paper tiger because the u.s. did not have the have the Courage or the or the wherewithal to bomb Syria and yet we see just how?
Ridiculous that argument was today.
Yeah.
Well Lindsey Graham says a lot of things, doesn't he?
Yeah I'm sorry.
Lindsey Graham was actually on CNN Saturday night talking about the deal and he actually had to ask Wolf Blitzer what the deal was before we could comment on it But he was already on air.
It was ridiculous.
Yeah, and of course, he already knew what the answer was Anyway, whatever it is.
I'm against it because I want you to go to war All right.
Hey, thanks.
We're way over time.
Thanks so much for your time.
No problem Scott.
Thanks so much All right, everybody that is a great Nima Shirazi from why to sleep in America and mufta.org That's it for anti-war radio this morning.
Thanks very much for listening I'm Scott Horton here every Sunday from 839 on KPFK 90.7 FM in LA.
See you next week