11 thoughts on “5/22/15 Brad Hoff

  1. Pingback: Straight From Uncle Sam’s Mouth: ISIS To Be Used As U.S. Strategic Asset | Come Home America

  2. Pingback: Confirmed Secret Pentagon Report Reveals US “Created” ISIS As A “Tool” in a Proxy War Against Assad | Uprootedpalestinians's Blog

  3. Ryan

    By Washington you mean Tel Aviv.
    The plan for sectarian violence in Syria was all spelled out by Oded Yinon of Israel as well as the clean break paper from Richard Perle

  4. Abel Ashes

    Here is the actual DIA paper in question that disinformation peddlers like Alex Jones, Nafeez Ahmed, and Chris Hedges have been lying about. It clearly states that the creation of a Salafist Islamic State is likely to occur because of Syrian and Iraqi jihadist groups that the US opposes and furthermore clearly states that such an Islamic State is not desirable to the US or for regional security and stability:

    DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE – CLASSIFICATION: SECRET.
    INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.
    COUNTRY: (U) IRAQ (IRQ). DOI: (U) 20120730. {12 August 2012}

    1. {REDACTED}

    2. {REDACTED}

    THE GENERAL SITUATION:

    A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.

    B. THE SALAFIST,- THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.

    C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION; WHILE RUSSIA. CHINA, AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.

    D. {REDACTED}

    E. THE REGIME’S PRIORITY IS TO CONCENTRATE ITS PRESENCE IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST (TARTUS, AND LATAKJA); HOWEVER, IT HAS NOT ABANDONED HOMS BECAUSE IT CONTROLS THE MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES IN SYRIA. THE REGIME DECREASED ITS CONCENTRATION IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDERS (AL HASAK.A AND DER ZOR).

    3. AL QAEDA – IRAQ (AQI):

    A. AQI IS FAMILIAR WITH SYRIA. AQI TRAINED IN SYRIA AND THEN INFILTRATED INTO IRAQ.

    B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA. AQI DECLARED ITS OPPOSITION OF ASSAD’S GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT CONSIDERED IT A SECTARIAN REGIME TARGETING SUNNIS.

    C. AQI CONDUCTED A NUMBER OF OPERATIONS IN SEVERAL SYRIAN CITIES UNDER THE NAME OF JAISH AL NUSRA (VICTORIOUS ARMY), ONE OF ITS AFFILIATES.

    D. AQI, THROUGH THE SPOKESMAN OF THE ISLAMIC STA TE OF IRAQ (ISi), ABU MUHAMMAD AL ADNANI, DECLARED THE SYRIAN REGIME AS THE SPEARHEAD OF WHAT HE IS NAMING JIBHA AL RUWAFDH (FOREFRONT OF THE SHIITES) BECAUSE OF ITS {THE SYRIAN REGIME) DECLARATION OF WAR ON THE SUNNIS.

    ADDITIONALLY. HE IS CALLING ON THE SUNNIS IN IRAQ, ESPECIALLY THE TRIBES IN THE BORDER REGIONS (BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA), TO WAGE WAR AGAINST THE SYRIAN REGIME, REGARDING SYRIA AS AN INFIDEL REGIME FOR ITS SUPPORT TO THE INFIDEL PARTY HEZBOLLAH, AND OTHER REGIMES HE CONSIDERS DISSENTERS LIKE IRAN AND IRAQ.

    E. AQI CONSIDERS THE SUNNI ISSUE IN IRAQ TO BE FATEFULLY CONNECTED TO THE SUNNI ARABS AND MUSLIMS.

    4. THE BORDERS:

    A. THE BORDERS BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAQ STRETCH APPROXIMATELY 600KM WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN CONSISTING OF A VAST DESERT, MOUNTAIN RANGES (SINJAR MOUNTAINS). JOINT RIVERS (FLOWING ON BOTH SIDES), AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS.

    B. IRAQ DIRECTLY NEIGHBORS THE SYRIAN PROVINCES OF HASAK.A AND DER ZOR, AS WELL AS (SYRIAN) CITIES ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDER.

    C. THE LAND ON BOTH SIDES BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA IS A VAST DESERT PUNCTUATED BY VALLEYS, AND IT LACKS TRANSPORTATION ROUTES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL HIGHWAY AND SOME MAJOR CITIES.

    5. THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER:

    A. THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER HAS A SOCIAL-TRIBAL STYLE, WHICH IS BOUND BY STRONG TRIBAL AND FAMILIAL MARITAL TIES.

    B. THEIR SECTARIAN AFFILIATION UNITES THE TWO SIDES WHEN EVENTS HAPPEN IN THE REGION.

    C. AQI HAD MAJOR POCKETS AND BASES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER TO FACILITATE THE FLOW OF MATERIAL AND RECRUITS.

    D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI JN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF IRAQ DURING TI-IE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE SUNNI’S IN SYRIA.

    6. THE SITUATION ON THE IRAQI AND SYRIAN BORDER:

    A. THREE BORDER BDES ARE SUFFICIENT TO CONTROL THE BORDERS DURING PEACE TIME FOR OBSERVATION DUTIES AND TO PREVENT SMUGGLING AND INFILTRATION.

    B. {REDACTED}

    C. IN PREVIOUS YEARS A MAJORITY OF AQI FIGHTERS ENTERED IRAQ PRIMARILY VIA THE SYRIAN BORDER.

    7. THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

    A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HA VE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN TERRITORY.

    B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR: WITH SUPPORT FROM RUSSIA, CHINA, AND IRAN, THE REGIME IS CONTROLLING THE AREAS OF INFLUENCE ALONG COASTAL TERRITORIES (TARTUS AND LATAKIA), AND IS FIERCELY DEFENDING HOMS, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE PRIMARY TRANSPORTATION ROUTE IN SYRIA. ON THE OTHER HAND, OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING, SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT.

    8. THE EFFECTS ON IRAQ:

    A. {REDACTED} SYRIAN REGIME BORDER FORCES RETREATED FROM THE BORDER AND THE OPPOSITION FORCES (SYRIAN FREE ARMY) TOOK OVER THE POSTS AND RAISED THEIR FLAG. THE IRAQI BORDER GUARD FORCES ARE FACING A BORDER WITH SYRIA THAT IS NOT GUARDED BY OFFICIAL ELEMENTS WHICH PRESENTS A DANGEROUS AND SERIOUS THREAT.

    B. THE OPPOSITION FORCES WILL TRY TO USE THE IRAQI TERRITORY AS A SAFE HAVEN FOR ITS FORCES TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE SYMPATHY OF THE IRAQI BORDER POPULATION, MEANWHILE TRYING TO RECRUIT FIGHTERS AND TRAIN THEM ON THE IRAQI SIDE, IN ADDITION TO HARBORING REFUGEES (SYRIA).

    C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITON WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHJA EXPANSION (IRAQ AND IRAN).

    D. THE DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION HAS DIRE CONSEQUENCES ON THE IRAQI SITUATION AND ARE AS FOLLOWS:

    1. THIS CREATES THE IDEAL ATMOSPHERE FOR AQI TO RETURN TO ITS OLD POCKETS IN MOSUL AND RAMADI, AND WILL PROVIDE A RENEWED MOMENTUM UNDER THE PRESUMPTION OF UNIFYING THE JIHAD AMONG SUNNI IRAQ AND SYRIA, AND THE REST OF THE SUNNIS IN THE ARAB WORLD AGAINST WHAT IT CONSIDERS ONE ENEMY, THE DISSENTERS. ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.

    2. {REDACTED}

    3. THE RENEWING FACILITATION OF TERRORIST ELEMENTS FROM ALL OVER THE ARAB WORLD ENTERING INTO THE IRAQ AREA

  5. Abel Ashes

    Saudi Arabia is not funding the Islamic State. The Islamic State is being bombed by the Saudi military and has carried out several attacks in Saudi Arabia,which have killed Saudi military and Saudi Shia worshippers. The Saudis are a monarchy which is not acceptable to IS and they are a US ally which is not acceptable to IS. Saudi Arabia and Jordan are the two countries IS has stated in all of their propaganda that they wish to conquer and invade next should they take all of Iraq and Syria.

    Turkey is also not funding IS. Turkey is guilty of not preventing foreign fighters using Turkey as their last stop on the way into Syria. Erdogan is happy to see the Assad regime, the Kurds, and IS kill each other while Turkey helps the USA fight IS in a more clandestine fashion so as to appear neutral to avoid IS and al-Nusra attacks inside Turkey while Erdogan slowly erodes Turkish secularism and imposes a Muslim Brotherhood style Islamic republicanism. A lot of Turkish/Syrian strategic conflicts revolve around the Kurds and regional water rights.

    The Libyan government is at war with Libyan terrorist groups who have declared allegiance to IS. These Libyan Islamic State cells most famous for the beheading of Egyptian and Ethiopian Christians have attacked Libyan government offices, airports, police, civilians. The Libyan government is Islamist and pro-Sharia but not pro-IS.

    Syrian rebels funding IS is the silliest idea of all. IS has way more money and sources of continuous income than any of the many Syrian rebel groups could ever dream of. There are Syrian rebels who have defected to the Islamic State and taken with them weapons and equipment and supplies. But “Syrian rebel” groups are informal armies operating in a country whose regime they are at war with who rely on donations for all of their expenses.

    The Islamic State, on the other hand, is a country unto itself with it’s own diverse economy which derives income from black market sales of oil, antiquities, and sex slaves outside the “Caliphate”, as well as deriving revenue from all of the economic activities inside the “Caliphate” such as those I just mentioned plus agriculture, food production, water distribution, banking, taxation of more than 6,000,000 people in the cities and towns they control across 50% of Syria and about 1/3 of Iraq. IS just took Palmyra and Ramadi and with that gained even more accumulated additional territory, weapons, land, infrastructure, and continual sources of revenue.

    The Islamic State is not a mere terrorist group. It is a defacto nation with global theocratically based empire building aspirations. It’s first goal is the erasure of all of the borders and governments of all of the nations in the Middle East and North Africa.

    Yeah there are private financial supporters in every Muslim majority nation and many Muslim minority nations as well and Qatar is certainly one of the big ones but there is no national government that actually wants them to succeed. They are literally a threat to every single regime in the Islamic world as they see all of those regimes as illegitimate. One of the largest sources of outside money flowing into Islamic State war coffers uncovered in the Western world was a Muslim money laundering network in Spain that was helping Muslims across Europe to send money to the Islamic State military wing,
    Yeah and now even the US military is playing this stupid game, accusing Assad of supporting ISIS, which is just as stupid as the other accusations. Islamic State has conquered 50% of Syria. They have vowed to kill Assad and turn all of, not only Syria, but the entire Middle East into a Caliphate and they don’t consider Alawites to be Muslims and we know what they are doing to the Yazidi, so if Assad were supporting ISIS he would be something far worse than suicidal.

  6. Abel Ashes

    As I said would happen: “ISIS” has once again attacked Israel and is threatening to attack Israel and Palestine, including Hamas as Hamas attacks “ISIS”

    This is another “I told you so” moment. By following “ISIS””s own propaganda and statements I already knew that some of the rockets fired from Gaza that led to the recent conflict between Hamas and Israel and caused many innocent people’s deaths, were fired by “ISIS” cells in Gaza rather than Hamas. I also knew that “ISIS” opposes both Israel and all of the Palestinian parties including Hamas. “ISIS” does not recognize the “right to exist” of either Israel or Palestine as nations. The only “nation” whose “right to exist” “ISIS” recognizes is the “Caliphate” they have declared themselves to be and the global Ummah they believe themselves to be the rightful rulers of. “ISIS” considers Israel, Fatah, and Hamas to all be illegitimate “infidel” rulers and has declared their desire to fight them all.

    Hamas has been targeting the ISIS cells in Gaza. “ISIS” has been threatening Hamas and Israel recently, vowing to use their underground cells in Gaza and Sinai to attack both. “ISIS” has claimed responsibility for a recent rocket attack from Gaza into Israel.

    Google: Islamic State Attacks Israel: ISIS Supporters Threaten Hamas, Take Credit For Launching Rocket From Gaza

  7. Abel Ashes

    Islamic State is NOT state sponsored. I will keep saying it until people realize that it is true. Islamic State (“ISIS”) is an enemy of every single government that one or another conspiracy theorist, propagandist, paranoiac, or liar has accused of supporting “ISIS”.

    Islamic State has a military strategy and will not attack anyone until they are in a prepared and advantageous position to do so. Islamic State has conducted attacks against Saudi Arabia prior to the recent attacks on Shia mosques, having killed Saudi border guards in the past.

    Besides Iraq (the birthplace of “ISIS”), Syria (which has lost 50% of its territory to “ISIS”, and Saudi Arabia (which has been helping the US and Iraq to bomb “ISIS” targets in Iraq), “ISIS” is looking to attack Israel, Palestine, Jordan (another country that has been bombing “ISIS”, Lebanon (home country of “ISIS”‘s enemy Hezbollah), Turkey (which is finally beginning to take a more proactive course against “ISIS), Iran (which has troops in both Iraq and Syria helping to fight “ISIS”), Egypt (which is at war with “ISIS” cells in Sinai) Libya, Tunisia and Algeria (which are cooperating in efforts to combat “ISIS” cells in Libya) and all of the Gulf Arab countries which are allies of Saudi Arabia and seen by “ISIS” as “infidel occupiers” of portions of “the Caliphate”…..but that is just the beginning. “ISIS” sees all governments on Earth as “infidels” and only recognizes their “Caliphate” and the global Ummah they believe themselves to be the rightful rulers of according to their leaders’ extreme version of Islam.

  8. Abel Ashes

    A Brief History of “ISIS”

    It’s not “an Islamic state”. It’s “Islamic State”. That is what they call themselves. They stopped calling themselves Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) a long time ago. They don’t like the title Daesh (Daeech, Daiish, et cetera…it’s Arabic so it is spelled many different ways in the Latin alphabet) which is why Muslims who oppose them prefer to call them that.

    EIIL is the French acronym for the old name that included Iraq and the Levant. Etat Islamique (French) or Islamic State (English) or ad-Dawla al-Isl?miyya (Arabic in in the Latin alphabet) or ?????? ????????? (Arabic) is what they call their “Caliphate” now. Islamic State sees themselves as the Caliphate not as a mere terrorist group. They see themselves as the leaders of true Islam (whatever that means) and the empire of the global Ummah. This is why Muslims who oppose them refuse to call them by their official name which is simply “Islamic State”.

    Before they entered Syria from Iraq they were “Islamic State in Iraq” (ISI) and before that they were known in the international press as “al Qaeda in Iraq” which was the primary Sunni militant group responsible for the majority of Iraqi civilian deaths and killings of US and Iraqi troops after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

    “Al Qaeda in Iraq” was what Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (founded in 1999) became when he pledged allegiance to al Qaeda in 2004. Al Qaeda and al Qaeda in Iraq had a very uneasy relationship as al Qaeda “central” (Bin Laden and Zawahiri) opposed the brutal attacks on so many fellow Muslims that Zarqawi saw fit to kill for supporting the new Iraqi democracy or “the US occupation” or for being Shia rather than Sunni.

    In January 2006 Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (“al Qaeda in Iraq”) joined with other Sunni militant groups to form the Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC). In June 2006 Zarqawi was killed by US bombs in a targeted assassination.

    In October 2006 the group declared themselves to be the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and the leadership was taken up by an Islamic scholar with both a Masters and PhD in Islamic studies whose birth name was Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badri but who went by many aliases as a jihadist leader, most well known in the international press as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

    in 2011 al-Nusra Front (the al Qaeda branch in Syria) was led by al-Baghdadi and he sought to merge it with his Islamic State in Iraq (ISI)/Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/ISIS) group which al Qaeda opposed. This led to the split of the two groups and since that time al Nusra and ISIS have been not only at war with the Syrian government and anti-government Syrian rebels but with each other as well.

    Finally in 2014 ISIS/ISIL/EIIL declared themselves to not only be advocates for a new global Caliphate but to be that Caliphate and declared Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be the Caliph. This means they see themselves as the ONLY legitimate rulers of the entirety of the Islamic world.

  9. Abel Ashes

    Where in this report does it even indicate that the US had anything to do with creating “ISIS”?
    DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE – CLASSIFICATION: SECRET.
    INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.
    COUNTRY: (U) IRAQ (IRQ). DOI: (U) 20120730. {12 August 2012}

    1. {REDACTED}

    2. {REDACTED}

    THE GENERAL SITUATION:

    A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.

    B. THE SALAFIST,- THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.

    C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION; WHILE RUSSIA. CHINA, AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.

    D. {REDACTED}

    E. THE REGIME’S PRIORITY IS TO CONCENTRATE ITS PRESENCE IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST (TARTUS, AND LATAKJA); HOWEVER, IT HAS NOT ABANDONED HOMS BECAUSE IT CONTROLS THE MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES IN SYRIA. THE REGIME DECREASED ITS CONCENTRATION IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDERS (AL HASAK.A AND DER ZOR).

    3. AL QAEDA – IRAQ (AQI):

    A. AQI IS FAMILIAR WITH SYRIA. AQI TRAINED IN SYRIA AND THEN INFILTRATED INTO IRAQ.

    B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA. AQI DECLARED ITS OPPOSITION OF ASSAD’S GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT CONSIDERED IT A SECTARIAN REGIME TARGETING SUNNIS.

    C. AQI CONDUCTED A NUMBER OF OPERATIONS IN SEVERAL SYRIAN CITIES UNDER THE NAME OF JAISH AL NUSRA (VICTORIOUS ARMY), ONE OF ITS AFFILIATES.

    D. AQI, THROUGH THE SPOKESMAN OF THE ISLAMIC STA TE OF IRAQ (ISi), ABU MUHAMMAD AL ADNANI, DECLARED THE SYRIAN REGIME AS THE SPEARHEAD OF WHAT HE IS NAMING JIBHA AL RUWAFDH (FOREFRONT OF THE SHIITES) BECAUSE OF ITS {THE SYRIAN REGIME) DECLARATION OF WAR ON THE SUNNIS.

    ADDITIONALLY. HE IS CALLING ON THE SUNNIS IN IRAQ, ESPECIALLY THE TRIBES IN THE BORDER REGIONS (BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA), TO WAGE WAR AGAINST THE SYRIAN REGIME, REGARDING SYRIA AS AN INFIDEL REGIME FOR ITS SUPPORT TO THE INFIDEL PARTY HEZBOLLAH, AND OTHER REGIMES HE CONSIDERS DISSENTERS LIKE IRAN AND IRAQ.

    E. AQI CONSIDERS THE SUNNI ISSUE IN IRAQ TO BE FATEFULLY CONNECTED TO THE SUNNI ARABS AND MUSLIMS.

    4. THE BORDERS:

    A. THE BORDERS BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAQ STRETCH APPROXIMATELY 600KM WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN CONSISTING OF A VAST DESERT, MOUNTAIN RANGES (SINJAR MOUNTAINS). JOINT RIVERS (FLOWING ON BOTH SIDES), AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS.

    B. IRAQ DIRECTLY NEIGHBORS THE SYRIAN PROVINCES OF HASAK.A AND DER ZOR, AS WELL AS (SYRIAN) CITIES ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDER.

    C. THE LAND ON BOTH SIDES BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA IS A VAST DESERT PUNCTUATED BY VALLEYS, AND IT LACKS TRANSPORTATION ROUTES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL HIGHWAY AND SOME MAJOR CITIES.

    5. THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER:

    A. THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER HAS A SOCIAL-TRIBAL STYLE, WHICH IS BOUND BY STRONG TRIBAL AND FAMILIAL MARITAL TIES.

    B. THEIR SECTARIAN AFFILIATION UNITES THE TWO SIDES WHEN EVENTS HAPPEN IN THE REGION.

    C. AQI HAD MAJOR POCKETS AND BASES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER TO FACILITATE THE FLOW OF MATERIAL AND RECRUITS.

    D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI JN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF IRAQ DURING TI-IE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE SUNNI’S IN SYRIA.

    6. THE SITUATION ON THE IRAQI AND SYRIAN BORDER:

    A. THREE BORDER BDES ARE SUFFICIENT TO CONTROL THE BORDERS DURING PEACE TIME FOR OBSERVATION DUTIES AND TO PREVENT SMUGGLING AND INFILTRATION.

    B. {REDACTED}

    C. IN PREVIOUS YEARS A MAJORITY OF AQI FIGHTERS ENTERED IRAQ PRIMARILY VIA THE SYRIAN BORDER.

    7. THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

    A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HA VE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN TERRITORY.

    B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR: WITH SUPPORT FROM RUSSIA, CHINA, AND IRAN, THE REGIME IS CONTROLLING THE AREAS OF INFLUENCE ALONG COASTAL TERRITORIES (TARTUS AND LATAKIA), AND IS FIERCELY DEFENDING HOMS, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE PRIMARY TRANSPORTATION ROUTE IN SYRIA. ON THE OTHER HAND, OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING, SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT.

    8. THE EFFECTS ON IRAQ:

    A. {REDACTED} SYRIAN REGIME BORDER FORCES RETREATED FROM THE BORDER AND THE OPPOSITION FORCES (SYRIAN FREE ARMY) TOOK OVER THE POSTS AND RAISED THEIR FLAG. THE IRAQI BORDER GUARD FORCES ARE FACING A BORDER WITH SYRIA THAT IS NOT GUARDED BY OFFICIAL ELEMENTS WHICH PRESENTS A DANGEROUS AND SERIOUS THREAT.

    B. THE OPPOSITION FORCES WILL TRY TO USE THE IRAQI TERRITORY AS A SAFE HAVEN FOR ITS FORCES TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE SYMPATHY OF THE IRAQI BORDER POPULATION, MEANWHILE TRYING TO RECRUIT FIGHTERS AND TRAIN THEM ON THE IRAQI SIDE, IN ADDITION TO HARBORING REFUGEES (SYRIA).

    C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITON WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHJA EXPANSION (IRAQ AND IRAN).

    D. THE DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION HAS DIRE CONSEQUENCES ON THE IRAQI SITUATION AND ARE AS FOLLOWS:

    1. THIS CREATES THE IDEAL ATMOSPHERE FOR AQI TO RETURN TO ITS OLD POCKETS IN MOSUL AND RAMADI, AND WILL PROVIDE A RENEWED MOMENTUM UNDER THE PRESUMPTION OF UNIFYING THE JIHAD AMONG SUNNI IRAQ AND SYRIA, AND THE REST OF THE SUNNIS IN THE ARAB WORLD AGAINST WHAT IT CONSIDERS ONE ENEMY, THE DISSENTERS. ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.

    2. {REDACTED}

    3. THE RENEWING FACILITATION OF TERRORIST ELEMENTS FROM ALL OVER THE ARAB WORLD ENTERING INTO THE IRAQ AREA.

  10. Pingback: The DIA Islamic State Story & Going Out on a Limb with Independent Muckraking – Levant Report

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