I need this for a citation later:
Thirteen different times I said that the end of the Afghan war would look like the fall of Saigon:
Scott Horton, Interview with Jeff Huber, Scott Horton Show radio archive, September 29, 2008, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-jeff-huber; Eric Margolis, Scott Horton Show radio archive, November 13, 2008, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-eric-margolis-8; Eric Margolis, Scott Horton Show radio archive, June 23, 2009, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-eric-margolis-15; Scott Horton, “Interview with Eric Margolis and Tom Engelhardt,” Scott Horton Show radio archive, July 26, 2010, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-eric-margolis-and-tom-engelhardt; Scott Horton, “Interview with Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis,” Scott Horton Show radio archive, February 3, 2016, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/2316-daniel-davis; Scott Horton, “Interview with Ann Jones,” Scott Horton Show radio archive, February 8, 2013, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/2813-ann-jones; Eric Margolis, Scott Horton Show radio archive, May 3, 2013, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/5313-eric-margolis; Eric Margolis, Scott Horton Show radio archive, April 14, 2014, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/041414-eric-margolis; Justin Pavoni, Scott Horton Show radio archive, August 22, 2014, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/082214-justin-pavoni; Dan Simpson, Scott Horton Show radio archive, March 4, 2016, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/3416-dan-simpson; Scott Horton, Catherine Lutz, Scott Horton Show radio archive, October 14, 2016, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/101416-catherine-lutz; Jason Ditz, Scott Horton Show radio archive, March 10, 2017, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/31017-jason-ditz-on-the-latest-us-troop-deployments-in-afghanistan-the-middle-east-and-north-africa; Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, Scott Horton Show radio archive, May 12, 2017, https://scotthorton.org/interviews/51217-retired-lt-col-daniel-l-davis-on-a-new-us-troop-surge-in-afghanistan.
AI SUMMARY (May include errors):
. Afghanistan — Saigon/Kabul collapse
Fool’s Errand: printed collapse forecasts
- Fool’s Errand, p. ii: Explicit near-to-medium-term warning that a forced U.S. withdrawal could follow a ‘Fall of Saigon-type disaster,’ coupled with the judgment that the American-built state was unsustainable.
- Fool’s Errand, p. 95: Afghanistan is described as a war ‘destined for disaster,’ with the United States bogged down in another ‘Vietnam’ and no reason to expect a more successful outcome.
- Fool’s Errand, pp. 209–210: Very specific collapse forecast: after final U.S. withdrawal the insurgency could quickly retake the Pashtun south and east; ‘It is even possible, perhaps likely, that the capital city of Kabul could be lost soon thereafter.’ Without U.S. funding, the National Unity Government ‘would cease to exist in no time.’
- Fool’s Errand, p. 217: Gen. Dunford’s own warning is used as evidence that the Afghan security forces and security environment would deteriorate after withdrawal; Horton places this inside the critique of the permanent-war rationale.
- Fool’s Errand, p. 221: The U.S. political-military order is described as having ‘built nothing that can stand on its own after all this time’; the reason for staying forever is precisely that all gains are ‘fragile and reversible.’
- Fool’s Errand, p. 227: Horton predicts that whenever the United States finally leaves—whether 2024, 2034 or 2044—the Afghan civil war will continue without it.
Book citation: Scott Horton, Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan (2017), pp. ii, 95, 209–210, 217, 221, and 227.
September 29, 2008 — Jeff Huber interview — early Kabul/Saigon warning
The Afghanistan archive contains an early comparison between the likely end of the U.S.-backed Kabul order and the collapse of South Vietnam. This matters because the analogy predates the 2021 evacuation by nearly thirteen years.
Significance: Early precursor; use together with the explicit 2017 printed forecast.
Quote: Scott: “if we have a … roof of the Saigon Embassy moment, that’s something different.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-jeff-huber/
June 23, 2009 — Eric Margolis — Kabul as “another little Saigon”
Margolis predicted a Saigon-like fate for Kabul. Horton immediately supplied the dependency mechanism, describing the U.S.-backed Afghan government as a minority puppet regime that could not survive without American support.
“the puppet regime in Kabul … couldn’t possibly hold up without America supporting it”
Significance: Shared prediction: Margolis states the Saigon forecast; Horton independently states why the Kabul government would collapse.
Quote: Scott: “the puppet regime in Kabul … couldn’t possibly hold up without America supporting it.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-eric-margolis-15/
2017 — Fool’s Errand — a “Fall of Saigon-type disaster”
Horton wrote that Washington might not be able to manage an orderly, indefinite occupation and explicitly forecast a forced withdrawal after a Saigon-type collapse. In the same introduction he wrote that the American-built Afghan state was unsustainable and certain to fall apart once the occupation ended.
“a forced withdrawal of American troops after a Fall of Saigon-type disaster remains at least a possibility in the near to medium term.”
Significance: Top-tier prediction. Kabul fell in August 2021 and the U.S. evacuation immediately generated the Saigon comparison.
The stronger companion sentence was not merely that the U.S. might leave badly, but that the political structure it had created could not survive without the occupation.
“what state it has been able to establish there is completely unsustainable and is certain to fall apart when the occupation is finally called off, and America does come home.”
Significance: Top-tier and unusually direct.
Book citation: Scott Horton, Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan (2017), p. ii; see also pp. 95, 209–210, 217, 221, 227.
November 13, 2008 — Eric Margolis — early embassy-helicopter question
Horton asks whether the Afghanistan surge is setting up “helicopters on the embassy of Saigon” in the future, explicitly invoking Afghanistan as the “graveyard of empires.”
Quote: Scott: “Are we facing helicopters on the embassy of Saigon thing in the future here?”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-eric-margolis-8/
July 26, 2010 — Eric Margolis and Tom Engelhardt — Kabul can be held, but Afghanistan cannot be conquered
Horton says the war is a lost cause and distinguishes the ability to hold Kabul by firepower from the inability to conquer or build a nation in Afghanistan.
Quote: Scott: “we probably won’t get driven out of there with a fleeing the roof of the Saigon Embassy hanging onto the skids of the helicopters type of a scene there.”
Quote: Scott: “Our soldiers can direct firepower outwards long enough to hold on to Kabul as long as they’re determined to. But can they ever conquer that country? Can they ever build a nation in that country? Absolutely not.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/antiwar-radio-eric-margolis-and-tom-engelhardt/
February 8, 2013 — Ann Jones — fall-of-Saigon scenario and possible negotiated transition
Horton describes the conventional warning that withdrawal will mean “the fall of Saigon and a giant catastrophe,” then asks whether the Taliban’s existing presence in the Kabul political order might instead permit a deal and avert a literal Saigon-style collapse.
Quote: Scott: “it’s going to be like the fall of Saigon and a giant catastrophe.”
Quote: Scott: “can’t they make a deal with Mullah Omar and actually not have a fall of Saigon here?”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/2813-ann-jones/
May 3, 2013 — Eric Margolis — small residual force at risk and “worst nightmare” of Saigon
The discussion warns that a residual U.S. force could be too small to defend itself and identifies the Pentagon’s nightmare as Kabul being overrun in a Saigon-like ending.
Quote: Margolis: “everybody’s worst nightmare is the fall of Saigon, and nobody wants to see that repeated.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/5313-eric-margolis/
April 14, 2014 — Eric Margolis — Taliban at the gates of Kabul scenario
Horton explicitly asks whether U.S. personnel face a “fall of Saigon type moment” in which the Taliban appear at the gates of Kabul and the remaining occupiers have to run.
Quote: Scott: “fall of Saigon type moment here where the Taliban just says … now here we are at the gates of Kabul and you better run like hell because it’s your last day occupying this place.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/041414-eric-margolis/
August 22, 2014 — Justin Pavoni — Saigon moment could come before final withdrawal
Horton warns that a Saigon-style collapse might occur before the last American troops leave.
Quote: Scott: “We could be talking about later this year with a fall of Saigon moment. It might not wait until the last American troops are gone.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/082214-justin-pavoni/
February 3, 2016 — Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis — renewed Saigon/Kabul question
Horton again asks whether the Taliban could produce a “rooftop helicopter” ending in Kabul, while also recalling Ann Jones’s point that Taliban figures were already embedded in the political order.
Quote: Scott: “are we really facing the possibility of a fall of Saigon, rooftop helicopter type moment here?”
Quote: Scott: “are we risking a fall of Saigon type moment where the Talibs just walk right into Kabul?”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/2316-daniel-davis/
March 4, 2016 — Dan Simpson — risk of a Saigon-style ending after troop reductions
Horton asks whether reducing the force while leaving personnel behind creates the danger of a Saigon-style collapse.
Quote: Scott: “do you think that there’s a real danger of a fall of Saigon type moment there since they’ve withdrawn so many troops but left enough to have their goose cooked?”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/3416-dan-simpson/
October 14, 2016 — Catherine Lutz — Kabul could face a Saigon-like position “within a few years”
Horton says a Taliban march into Kabul may not be imminent, but could become plausible within a few years.
Quote: Scott: “I don’t know if they’re really a threat to just march right into Kabul at this point, like the fall of Saigon. But it’s pretty easy to imagine that they might be in that position within a few years.”
Source: https://scotthorton.org/interviews/101416-catherine-lutz/
March 10, 2017 — Jason Ditz — more troops only buy time before “the fall of Saigon”
Horton argues that another small deployment can postpone rather than solve the underlying collapse problem.
Quote: Scott: “a few thousand troops just buy … a little bit more time before the fall of Saigon.”
May 12, 2017 — Daniel Davis — Bagram and a possible final Taliban assault
Horton again asks whether the remaining force risks a literal Saigon-style final assault.
Quote: Scott: “do they really risk a fall of Saigon type moment and some kind of crazy final assault by the Taliban on the Bagram base?”
