Stephen Elsberry discusses his article “There Will Be No War with Iran. At Least Not a Hot One;” the mitigating factors of war, including the fragile world economy and Israel’s inability to go it alone; Israel’s faltering “periphery doctrine,” that requires friendly relations with regional non-Arab countries (Turkey, Iran) to counterbalance the Saudi sphere of influence; how Iranian regime change risks starting a “Shia Spring” that could take hold in Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia; and why Israeli-sponsored terrorism in Iran isn’t intended to halt their nuclear program, but to provoke a counterattack useful for drawing in the US.
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