09/17/13 – Muhammad Sahimi – The Scott Horton Show

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Alright y'all, welcome back to the show.
I'm Scott Horton.
This is my show.
We're on no agenda radio.
Full interview archives are at my website, scotthorton.org.
And also if you want, you can follow me on Facebook, Twitter and or YouTube at slash Scott Horton Show.
Our next guest is our good friend, Mohamed Sahimi.
He's a professor of chemical engineering at USC in LA.
And he keeps the website imenews.com.
That is Iran and Iran news and Middle East reports, imenews.com.
Welcome back to the show, Mohamed.
How are you doing?
Good morning, Scott.
It's great to be back in your program.
Well, thank you very much for joining us.
I really appreciate it.
And we got some news to cover and some lies to debunk.
So let's start with the story in Der Spiegel.
Intelligence sources.
Rouhani prepared to shut down nuclear site.
And this says that, well, I guess it's not an official proposal yet, but according to their sources, it soon will be an official proposal that the Iranian government will be willing to completely close down the Fordo facility, aka the comm facility, where they're enriching uranium up to 20% in exchange for America lifting the sanctions.
Did you see this piece and what do you make of it?
I did see the piece and, in fact, I also read about it in the Iranian press.
In the last round of negotiations that Iran had with the 5 Plus 1 group, namely the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany in Almaty, the capital of Kazakhstan, Iran had suggested to suspend uranium enrichment at Fordo for a short period, something between six months to one year.
So based on that suggestion, the report that Rouhani may suggest suspension of activities at Fordo looks completely plausible.
Whether Iran will be willing to completely close the facility, excuse me, is not clear.
And I personally doubt that Iran will do that after going through all the work that they have done in order to construct the Fordo facility.
But there is no question that Iran is ready to make significant offers to the West in return for relief from sanctions.
Because today, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a very important speech to the commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and during that speech he made two very important points that have been widely reported by Iranian press this morning.
And that is, first of all, he told the Revolutionary Guards not to intervene in Iranian politics and let the politicians run the country, which was the main thing dealing with the Ahmadinejad administration.
And secondly, he said that he's not opposed to diplomacy with the United States, and he also favors what he called heroic self-diplomacy, by which he meant that, you know, one knows the weaknesses and strengths of the enemy and itself, and through that it carries out a diplomacy that is in the national interest of his country.
So every signal that Khamenei has been sending over the past several months indicates that he and Iranian power establishment want to reach some sort of diplomatic resolutions of Iran.
Rouhani has made wholesale changes in Iran negotiation team.
The most important change that he has made has been transferring Iran's nuclear dossier from, you know, Supreme National Security Council to the foreign ministry, where Mohammad Javad Zarif, a highly-skilled and moderate diplomat, is now foreign minister.
And he has asked the foreign ministry to handle the nuclear dossier, which bodes very well for diplomatic resolution of the activity.
He also returned Ali Akbar Salehi, the Zarif predecessor, to Iran Atomic Energy Organization, where Salehi was before becoming appointed as Iran foreign minister, and where his expertise is.
He also changed Iran's representative in the IAEA and replaced Ali Akbar Soltaniyeh, who was one of the hardliners, with a long-time career diplomat.
So every indication is that Iran is actually changing its posture towards the nuclear negotiations.
But what remains at this stage, as Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, said yesterday, is a reciprocal step by five plus one.
In other words, if Iran is ready to make a major concession towards nuclear negotiations, the West must also be prepared to make a concessions or a proposal that is at the same level of significance as Iran's proposal, a small, you know, concessions or offers, such as providing spare parts for four-year-old Iranian civilian aircraft that are not even in operation anymore, is not going to cut it.
The United States and its allies must be prepared to make a major concession.
And at the same time, I should mention that the European Union courts have been declaring one after another major portions of European Union sanctions against Iran.
They have declared that some banks were sanctioned illegally.
They just a couple of days ago, they declared that Iran's shipping companies, sea shipping companies were all sanctioned illegally, and Iran may actually sue the European Union in European courts for damages that they have suffered over the past two years.
So even to European courts, it's becoming that these sanctions have been illegal, and therefore they should be lifted.
So there are all sorts of positive signals from Iran for a diplomatic resolution of the crisis.
But as I said, it remains to be seen whether the West is willing to reciprocate.
Right.
Well, you know, this first trial balloon here about they're even willing to dismantle the centrifuges that they've installed in Fordo, not just freeze them by, you know, turning the switch off, something like that.
That's a pretty bold proposal.
That's meant to break the ice.
Although, you know, I wonder whether all this conflict about whether or not to bomb Syria and whatever has really put the damper on any forward movement on Iran talks, at least, you know, on this side.
Well, I mean, the fact that the president backed down and stopped talking about attacking Syria was interpreted very positively in Iran.
Both Khamenei and Rouhani said that this was very positive and actually praised the United States for backing down and not attacking Syria.
But if the United States had attacked Syria, I think Iran would have reacted very, very strongly.
Even the president, when he talked to CBS 60 Minutes on Sunday night, said that he thinks that Syria's allies, namely Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, have the capability to strike back.
Now, I'm not sure whether Iran would actually strike back the way he meant it, but there is no question that that would have hardened the position of hardline Revolutionary Guards commanders who don't want any compromise with the United States.
But the fact that the attack didn't take place and the fact that Khamenei this morning told the Revolutionary Guards not to interfere in politics, again, are very good signals on Iran's part that what develops from here remains to be seen.
All right, now, a couple of things here.
First of all, of course, the War Party is going to say that any movement about, oh, I should also bring up that just the other day, I guess, yesterday or the day before they announced that they had converted even more of their stockpile of 20% enriched uranium 235 to fuel plates for their medical isotope reactor.
In other words, undermining their own so-called breakout capability by putting their enriched uranium to other uses, which is another positive step as far as olive branch to the west on that.
This is what Iran has been saying all along, that they want to enrich uranium to 20% or 19.75% and then use it for a medical reactor.
But the War Party, I'm sorry, what I was going to say was the War Party is going to say the sanctions are working here.
That's certainly what the Der Spiegel article says, is that the sanctions are so mean that the Iranians are giving in.
They have no choice.
And so is that true?
Might as well be true.
Even if it does teach them the wrong lesson, it could be the case, right?
I highly doubt that Iran's new willingness to compromise is the result of the sanctions.
Of course, the sanctions have disrupted the lives of tens of millions of Iranian people.
Of course, the sanctions have damaged Iran's economy.
But Rouhani has always said that Iran's centrifuges can spin while Iran's economy can also roll, which means that with the right diplomacy, we can preserve Iran's nuclear right and at the same time reach a solution and a compromise with the West.
And in fact, remember that when he was Iran's chief nuclear negotiator between 2003 and 2005, the European Union never imposed any sanctions on Iran.
And in fact, it extended its commercial relationship with Iran.
And at the same time, Rouhani and the Khatami administration suspended Iran's uranium enrichment program at that time and took a major step towards resolving the standoff over Iran's nuclear program with the European Union, except that the European Union didn't reciprocate the major steps that Iran had taken at that time.
Now, as you said- So does that mean, do you think that that means that Natanz is really up for negotiation as well?
I doubt it.
I don't think Natanz is up for negotiation.
That was then, this is now.
Yes, exactly.
I think, I believe what is up for negotiation is the activity at Fordow.
I think Iran is willing to suspend its enrichment activity at Fordow for a prolonged period of time.
Whether they are willing to actually close it completely remains to be seen.
I think that has a small chance of actually materializing.
But for that to happen, the West has to make a major phase of concessions, namely lifting all the sanctions against Iran, and at the same time, bringing Iran into negotiations for the future of Syria and future of other countries of the Middle East, which is the position that Iran has been taking for many years.
Iran has been saying that we have influence, we have allies on these countries, and therefore whatever that happens in the Middle East affects us, and therefore we have to be in these negotiations.
So that was, that is what has been happening.
I don't believe Iran will be able, will be willing to even retreat one inch regarding the Natanz facility.
Yes, in 2003-2005 Iran might have been willing, but Iran's program has now advanced to the point that it is irreversible.
Iran will not be willing to retreat regarding the Natanz.
That's the main facility for producing low-energy uranium for Iran, and Iran and Russia are negotiating a second nuclear reactor to be built in Bushehr, and therefore Iran will need those low-energy uranium as fuel for its reactor.
But for now, I think things are up for negotiations.
There might be a prolonged suspension, or with much smaller probability, shutting down the facility altogether, at least for a long period of time.
Those are up for negotiations.
But again, I would like to emphasize that these things will materialize only if the United States and its allies are willing to go the extra mile and are willing to make major concessions towards Iran so that the Iranian moderates, such as Rouhani, Khatami, Rafsanjani, and so on, can overcome the resistance by Iran's hotliners and reach a diplomatic resolution of the standoff.
Well, and after all, I think Gareth Porter probably said on the show five years ago or four years ago, well, let's see, it would have been the fall of 2009, the only reason they're making the Qom facility in the first place is so they have another bargaining chip to give up later on, and you know, if they can produce some 20% rich uranium for their medical isotope reactor in the meantime, then that's good too.
And so there they are.
They just play the game a lot better than the Americans do is all.
I agree.
And at that time, when they were building the Fordow facility, they were also afraid that Iran's nuclear facilities will be attacked by the United States and or Israel, particularly because Natanz, although it was built underground, it can be destroyed by bombing, but Fordow cannot be.
So that was another bargaining chip that, as you said, Iran built in order to negotiate from a stronger position.
And so Iran does have a bargaining position, and in fact, in several of your programs in the past, as I have always said, that no country is willing to give up its winning card in return for nothing.
So Iran may be willing to give up Fordow, either close it completely or suspend all the enrichment activities in it for a long time, or basically remove the centrifuges, at least as a cascade, so that if you want to put them back in, it will take a long time to do.
In return for major concessions by the West, and the major concessions that you're talking about here is lifting all the sanctions against Iran.
Iran's role in this regard is to basically separate the European Union from the United States.
Iran does not have a lot of commerce with the United States, and the United States has been sanctioning Iran ever since the Iranian Revolution.
So Iran's economy has adjusted to that.
What is important to Iran is to resume its full commercial relationship with the European Union, which before the sanction was Iran's largest commercial partner.
And for that to happen, Iran needs to have the sanctions against its financial institutions, banks, lifted, and normal, regular commerce to resume.
During the Khatami administration, that's what happened.
As I said, the European Union was not willing to impose any sanctions on Iran, but was willing to negotiate.
And Iran did suspend its nuclear program for a full two years.
But because the European Union didn't reciprocate, it didn't go anywhere.
This time around, Rouhani is the president.
He has a team of skilled, moderate diplomats.
He has the backing of Iran's supreme leader, apparently, from all that we hear and we read.
And therefore, Iran is ready to negotiate.
And again, I repeat it for the third or fourth time, in return for whatever Iran suggests and offers, the United States and its allies must be prepared to reciprocate at the same level of significance in order for negotiations to succeed.
The thing of it is, there are so many layers of sanctions that we certainly could.
We've built up enough to repeal that would indeed match the shutting down of the Fordo facility in terms of symbolism in what each side is willing to give up for the other, that kind of thing.
More than enough.
And of course, sanctions that we have no right to inflict in the first place.
Now, I wanted to ask you, it's kind of a minor point, but not really.
It seems to be a major talking point of the war party here.
And it made its way into this Der Spiegel article.
And again, for people taking notes, it's Iranian President Rouhani prepared to decommission nuclear site.
But one of the things they say here is that, well, you know, once you have your uranium enriched up to 20%, as opposed to, say, 3.6%, I guess, then, oh, it's just a matter of flipping a switch to turn it into 90-something percent weapons-grade uranium-235, the material required to build nuclear bombs, they say.
Really small step.
And I was just wondering if you could explain, well, what step would that be?
How difficult would it be?
Is it really true?
I mean, obviously, 20% purity is greater than 3.6% purity, but, you know, I don't know.
I just wonder, they put such import on that, they make it sound like if they're enriching for their medical isotope reactor, that, well, you know, that basically, for intents and purposes, is tantamount to weapons-grade material is what they're getting at, right?
Well, it actually isn't, because the enrichment of uranium from, you know, 3 to 5% to 90% for making a bomb is not, as mathematicians say, a linear process.
In other words, each time you go up, the speed becomes, you know, twice or three times.
It is a nonlinear process, which means that it takes some time to reach 90%.
Well, as you said, obviously, if you want, as your starting point, to use 20% enriched uranium to reach 90%, it is easier than 3%.
But it is not like they say that, hey, if you reach 20%, then it's only a minor step to reach 90%.
No, it takes the same type of effort, the same level of effort to reach 90%.
Of course, the time will be a little shorter, because you've already enriched it to 20%, but it doesn't mean that it is a minor step or child's game to go from 20% to 90%.
These are the type of propaganda that they have been spreading here and all over the cyberspace, mass media, and so on, that yes, Iran is very, very close to being able to make a nuclear weapon.
This morning, when Khamenei talked to the commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, he said that we don't want a nuclear weapon, not because the United States says so, not because we are afraid of the United States, but because we don't believe in nuclear weapons.
We don't believe that nuclear weapons will bring us more security than what we already have.
So he has been saying that for many, many years, and despite my opposition to him and what he does internally in his political system, I don't believe in him.
He has said many, many times that we don't want nuclear weapons, and all indications are that Iran is not actually pursuing nuclear weapons.
Every time they have enriched uranium to 20%, they have converted a major portion of it to fuel for Tehran nuclear reactor.
Remember, the same people who said that, who are saying that, well, it's a very minor step from 20% to 90% also said that, well, Iran will never be able to enrich to 20%, so they have to come to us and get fuel for their medical reactor, and therefore they need us.
So Iran did enrich uranium to 20%, it showed that it can do it, but it also did what it said all along that it would do, namely enrich uranium to 20% and then convert it to fuel for the medical reactor.
Now, the fact that Iran has now a very major stockpile of fuel, not just enriched uranium, but fuel for the Tehran medical research reactor, means that it basically does not need the Fordow facility the way it needed it a few years ago, and therefore is not willing to use that as a bargaining chip in order to reach a compromise with the United States.
I think the West has already conceded that they cannot stop Iran from enriching uranium at low percentage, 3% to 5% at Natanz, so I think that's out of the way, and therefore right now the main point is Fordow.
And the fact that Iran doesn't need fuel for Tehran reactor for many, many years, perhaps 10 to 15 years, means that Iran is willing to, at the minimum, probably suspend all enrichment activity at Fordow, and whether it will be willing to completely dismantle it is a different question that remains to be seen.
But there is no question that Iran is willing to compromise over Fordow and therefore address a major issue that the West always brings up.
Right.
Well...
But of course, at the same time, Netanyahu has been saying, well, this is not enough, because what Netanyahu and his government want is the complete dismantling of Iran's uranium enrichment facility and program.
Well, he's not going to get it, because the program is too advanced, and it is Iran's fundamental right, and therefore that's not going to happen.
So they will be trying to do what they can to scuttle any agreement that the five plus one...
But at the same time, I'm sure that there are at least some realist people in Israel who recognize that Iran is not going to give up all of its enrichment rights in return for lifting of some sanctions.
Right.
Well, you know, it's such an important point.
I hope people really do understand how important that is.
With all the hype about Iran and their nuclear program and how it's all hell-bent toward nuclear weapons, they keep using the uranium for the purposes they claimed they were enriching it for and converting it to fuel rods and converting it to targets for their medical isotope reactor, et cetera, et cetera, undermining their own so-called breakout capability.
So, you know, you could say, well, look, I don't trust the supreme leader when he declares he doesn't believe in nuclear weapons.
He's a politician.
What he really means is he does believe in nuclear weapons.
Fine.
But he keeps using his uranium for other purposes, so how can you argue with that?
You know what I mean?
Of course.
I mean, that's what they have to say.
But at the same time, it is not just what Khamenei claims.
It is the fact that the IAEA has never been able to discover any evidence that indicates that Iran is actually trying to build a nuclear weapon.
They say in every report that they submit to the board of directors of the agency that the IAEA continues to confirm that there has been no diversion of Iran's nuclear materials from peaceful to non-peaceful activities, and therefore there is no evidence for it.
I'm sorry.
We're out of time.
Thank you, Mohamed.
Really appreciate it.
Thank you very much, Scott.
Everybody, that's Mohamed Sahimi from imenews.com.
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