All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show.
I am the Director of the Libertarian Institute, Editorial Director of Antiwar.com, author of the book Fool's Errand, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and I've recorded more than 5,000 interviews going back to 2003, all of which are available at scotthorton.org.
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The full archive is also available at youtube.com slash scotthorton show.
Okay, guys, on the line, I've got Scott Paul from Oxfam.
He is the humanitarian policy lead there.
Welcome back to the show.
Scott, how are you?
I'm okay, Scott.
Just adjusting to the new reality and glad to be here with you.
Very happy to have you here, and luckily we don't have to be within six feet of each other to do this interview.
Exactly right.
Yeah, asymptomatic, don't mean you ain't got it.
We're learning.
That's right.
But listen, the reason I brought you on is, first of all, to talk about the worst epidemic in the world, and that's not the coronavirus.
It's the cholera in Yemen, and what makes it the worst is it's being deliberately inflicted on these helpless, innocent people by the United States of America and their Saudi allies.
So I was just wondering, I saw that you guys had put out a press release just what, a week or so ago, a couple of weeks ago, saying here comes the rainy season and huge concerns from you medical types about what might happen with another cholera outbreak in Yemen, which would be the third major one, I guess, since this war started five years ago, correct?
Yeah, that's right.
And we're going to keep doing this every year until there's a political settlement in Yemen.
The incentives and the ways that the different parties fighting in Yemen have lined up have changed over the years.
This escalated in some part because the Houthis took over Sana'a and then escalated again much, much further when the U.S. supported a Saudi-backed intervention in 2015, almost five years ago.
And the conflict shifts and the parties change the way they think about it and the way they approach it.
But for people on the ground, it's the same stuff every year.
And when it starts raining, that means untreated sewage getting into the drinking water and it exposes people to a disease that they should have in any normal setting, no concerns about having to deal with.
And untreated because America bombed their waterworks and their sewage facilities deliberately.
You know, it's it wasn't it wasn't the United States.
And a lot of the damage to sanitation facilities took place now a few years ago because the heaviest part of the Saudi bombing campaign was already two, three, four years ago.
The Houthis have had a hand in shelling that, too.
But the reality is that no one has had no one has had a chance to rebuild anything in the past five years because of the state of war ever since that time.
And look, just so we're clear here, and I know that this is not your speciality, so I just want to make it clear so that people understand that America is the world empire and Saudi Arabia is our client state.
And they could not wage this war if Barack Obama did not give them explicit permission to start it in the first place.
If he did not and Donald Trump since then, of course, as well, if the U.S. did not continue to sell them planes, to sell them bombs, to send our intelligence officers and our Navy to help them enforce the blockade, our intelligence officers to help them pick their targets.
And this is funny.
I actually have four different reporters and one former ambassador who each have a single source, so I don't know what you call that, who say that at least at the beginning of this war, there are Americans sitting in the back seats of those F-15s holding the Saudi princelings' little hands all the way to their civilian targets to commit their war crimes.
So, no, in fact, Saudi Arabia is nothing but the 51st state, and there's not a single action that they take over there that is not the responsibility of Barack Obama and his government and Donald Trump and his government since they came into power.
Donald Trump could cancel this war this second with one spoken word out loud.
Secretary of Defense, shut this thing down and it's done.
So there is no deniability because America is leading from behind.
This is America's war against these people.
So I'm sorry, I don't mean to just editorialize all over your interview, but people need to understand the reality of that.
You wouldn't have this war at all without the USA supporting it 100% this whole time.
You know, I think we're largely aligned about how this war began.
I think in recent years, I have a different perspective on how it's continued.
Well, I'm happy to hear that if you want to talk about that.
Well, yeah, I can tell you a little bit of what I'm saying.
So in 2015, when the Saudis began their coalition-based intervention, they did so with the pretty open green light from the Obama administration.
Basically, they said, well, we want the Iran nuclear deal.
We can't stop you from doing this badly.
So we're going to help you do it a little less badly.
And that's sort of how the original dynamic of this thing was.
You know, since roughly last fall, the Saudi ambassador to the United States came back to Saudi Arabia and started managing the conflict more hands-on.
And he basically said, look, Saudi Arabia is losing the PR battle in the United States.
And if there is a change in government, we can't be sure that we're going to have a friendly voice in Washington come November.
And so basically what he started to do is try to wind down the Saudi part of this involvement.
Here's the problem.
The conflict's already spun far out of control.
The internationally recognized government sitting in Riyadh is the one that actually has to put pen to paper on some of the formal political settlements.
And so they're trying to work out with the Houthis and with Southern secessionists a way to reach an accommodation.
But the Houthis don't want to compromise.
The government doesn't want to compromise.
And in the end, we are still in a stalemate, largely because of the dynamic that you and I agree upon five years ago.
Yeah.
I mean, isn't it the case, though, that if Trump just told the Americans to stop helping them and let the Saudis know that we're over it and we want you to stop this right now, that don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say that the Houthis don't play their own role in their own intransigence and whatever, but the Saudis would have to stop without America running diplomatic interference for them in the first place.
But then with all of the technical help and our Navy floating offshore and the rest, right?
Well, there's a question.
Yeah, there's a there's a question about operationally what would happen if the U.S. would withdraw.
DOD says, Department of Defense says very little would change at the at the margins.
You can probably have an argument about that.
I think the bigger problem is that even if Saudi Arabia ends its role militarily, if it can't push the government of Yemen and the Houthis to an agreement, then the conditions that have given rise to this humanitarian crisis don't get resolved.
So what are those conditions?
We're talking about a central bank in Yemen that's essentially split down the center with both parties politicizing it, playing economic warfare against each other, manipulating the currency, paying salaries in some places and not other places.
We're talking about the regulation of commercial goods, everything from delays in imports to double taxation.
This and not that's not to mention the rebuilding of the key ministries that actually provide services on the ground of the people.
So I mean, this is the sort of stuff that has to get resolved in order for Yemen to stand a fighting chance against cholera, let alone a monster like coronavirus.
Right.
And that's the thing, you know, just and look, I've been interested in this subject all along.
Obviously, I've been doing my best cover.
We covered an antiwar dot com.
But, you know, Yemen is far away and cholera is unfamiliar to most of us and epidemics are unfamiliar to most of us.
We don't know anything about that.
But now that people do understand what it's like to be living in the middle of an epidemic and how terrifying it is to think that your parents or grandparents or, you know, even younger people that you know and care about could get caught up in this thing.
And now we're all in the position that we have helped.
Our government has helped to put the people of Yemen in this whole time.
Only this is the wealthiest, most powerful country in world history.
That's the poorest, weakest country in world history.
They never did anything to us.
And they've gone through epidemic after epidemic.
And now here comes another one because of this war.
And that is what we are doing to these people.
And this is the history of the world.
It can't be undone.
We could stop it right now.
Would be a hell of an improvement.
But just imagine.
I mean, this is, it's barely a turn of phrase to say it's biological war when we know that this is the result.
Yeah.
And, I mean, let me tell you how, for example, you prevent cholera.
You prevent cholera by eating a baseline amount of food that allows for nutrition and drinking water that doesn't have raw sewage in it, right?
That's why there's no cholera epidemics in the US, let alone in poor countries all around the world.
Right.
In fact, I think you told me that before.
You don't need a vaccine.
You don't need heavy treatment of antibiotics.
You just need clean drinking water for a few days in a row and you can knock this thing out.
Right.
But they don't have that.
So they die.
They don't have it.
Right.
And that's largely because it's a poor country where sanitation facilities have been obliterated.
So now, you know, you go to a hospital in Yemen.
And by the way, most of, over half of the health facilities in Yemen have been damaged or destroyed since the beginning of the war.
And those largely have been by Saudi airstrikes.
But you go to one of the remaining hospitals in Yemen now, and here's what you see.
You see people sharing hospital beds.
You see two adults or four children to a hospital bed.
You see other people waiting to be treated in a chair or on the floor.
And then you see other people waiting outside because there isn't enough floor space.
That's what the hospitals look like before coronavirus.
Can you imagine what it's going to be like when inevitably someone brings this absurdly contagious pathogen into a society that has no capacity to deal with even basic Stone Age like disease?
Yeah, it's going to be an absolute nightmare.
Yeah.
I mean, the people who are most vulnerable.
You know, we talk a lot in my family and among my friends about social distancing.
So what do we do?
We stay at home.
We get everything we need at once so we can stay at home, minimize contact with people as much as possible.
Don't come close.
In Yemen, you've got more than a million people who've been forced from their homes.
They're living in these makeshift camps, families crammed in next to each other.
They can't do a thing without help from aid agencies or their neighbors.
When someone is suffering from acute malnutrition, a Yemeni's first stop isn't to the to the health clinic.
It's to their neighbors to see if someone will help.
And usually even in the poorest communities, someone will help.
But imagine a scenario where you can't even go door to door or you risk your life and you risk the life of everyone in your community.
It's unthinkable.
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And now another big difference here too, and we're putting off the cholera and going, I mean, putting off the COVID and getting back to the cholera for a second, is in this COVID, one of the things that makes a lot of us feel better is that it doesn't seem to be hitting kids very hard.
Now babies are vulnerable and that's a real problem.
But mostly if you have a 10 year old, TV is saying that, you know, things might be okay.
But in the case of cholera, no, it's the young are absolutely just as vulnerable.
So they're not just having to be terrified and fear for the death of their elderly parents, but for their young babies too.
That's exactly right.
And it's heartbreaking because in Yemen, people are making choices about which of their kids they can afford to keep alive.
As a parent, I can't even contemplate what that would be like.
But it's inevitable because it's adults who earn the money.
And it's the kids who have the most weak immune systems.
So that's who's going to get, you know, and then, and after kids, it's women, women who are going to eat least and eat last.
So there's a, there's a sort of deep, sad irony about the fact that Yemen's, Yemen's fate is being determined by a bunch of power hungry men.
And it's women and children who are doing the bulk of the suffering.
And now listen, I know that in 2017, they said a million people got cholera.
And then I think it was you and some other professionals said, well, that's not really right.
We're counting essentially everybody with diarrhea and we don't have tests to say for sure what percentage of these are actually cholera or other waterborne illnesses and what have you.
So maybe that estimate is a bit high, but it was still at least hundreds of thousands of people got it.
And how many died?
Do you know?
And, and this is the, we're on the verge of the third one.
So there were two previous epidemics.
Can you give us the death count from those?
Right.
Well, you know, and just to sort of bring, bring your listeners up to speed.
The reason that is, is, um, you know, and, and this is, this is going to be something that I think people in, uh, the United States are now intimately familiar with.
You can't test everybody and it doesn't always make sense to test everybody.
Um, because you know, um, tests cost money and, um, at some level if you know things are bad and you know what the treatment is going to be, it doesn't matter whether it's cholera or acute watery diarrhea.
Um, so, but we, but we can say, um, with, with cholera and acute watery diarrhea, we're talking about over 2000 people who have died.
Um, and you, and it's just really important.
It's almost definitely underreported, but you have to remember that when we talk about over a million cases of acute watery diarrhea or cholera, you shouldn't be thinking to yourself, well, most of those are just acute watery diarrhea because acute watery diarrhea is a killer when you don't have enough nutrition or enough safe water, right?
Yeah.
That's not, not to play it down, but just to be specific, you know, you overstate one thing by one word and everything important that you have to say comes crashing down.
So we got to always, you know, never exaggerate and always be careful.
But as you say, there ain't no reason to play down being sick with a serious stomach virus when you live in the poorest country in the Middle East under bombing by the Americans and their Saudi friends.
And when you don't have any available clean water to drink, to, to, uh, move forward from there.
So, right.
And now, so back to the COVID then, I mean, uh, you guys are, I assume then absolutely predicting the worst for the slums of North and South Yemen, huh?
Yeah.
Well, because in the end there's no way to test it.
There's no way to treat it.
Um, and we're dealing with a society whose health system is already completely overwhelmed and for whom social contact, uh, social contact isn't just, um, a way to be resilient together.
Um, but it's also part of this, it's part of social customs, right?
So you'd have, you'd have difficulty, um, trying to communicate to a very, very large population that, you know, you shouldn't be going and, and, uh, hanging out with each other, um, patting each other on the back, giving each other hugs, those sorts of things.
But then imagine also that it's only by talking with people, it's only by connecting with neighbors that a lot of Yemenis are able to survive.
It's, it's not an exaggeration to say that if you've got, um, you know, five people who are facing a critical condition and a community of a hundred, um, that community of a hundred is going to full resources and find a way to help those people before they have to go seek treatment elsewhere.
Um, it's a very, it's a, it's a country full of people who are, um, amazingly generous and neighborly.
So trying to turn that on its head and saying, actually, the best way to help people is to stay away from them is a very counterintuitive logic for most people.
Right.
Well, that's a real problem everywhere, right?
Like tornadoes or hurricanes or earthquakes.
We all come together and help each other.
And now the deal is stay the hell away from me and my people, you know?
Exactly right.
Yup.
And, and Hey, I live in the lily white suburbs North of Austin, Texas in a middle-class neighborhood where we're not really in any danger other than from the virus itself.
But in other, in other places where people are poorer and weaker and more desperate, This can get really, really ugly, really, really fast in a situation like this.
So I just can't even imagine the, the fate these people are staring down right now.
It's just incredible.
Because you've got to imagine, I mean, forget, forget masks, right?
Like we're talking about, we talk about in this country now, whether we have enough ventilators or enough respirators.
Yeah.
They have none.
Right.
They have essentially nothing equipment.
I mean, we, we can get it in once in a blue moon and it's available, but I mean, it takes months and months to procure and it's very, in very small amounts and it's super expensive.
So that's, that's not how, that's not how Yemen is going to deal with COVID.
It's actually going to be much more in line with, with what Oxfam does, which is, I mean, it sounds really, it sounds really silly to, you know, it maybe sounds less silly these days.
But a lot of what we do in emergencies is we teach people how to wash their hands properly.
And we do it in a way that's culturally and linguistically acceptable.
We're obviously cognizant of the fact that when people are subject to bombardment and don't have any jobs and don't have any food that it can be insensitive to say, by the way, remember to wash your hands for 20 seconds.
But it's in a situation like this, it's absolutely a piece of the puzzle.
And so that together with making sure people have enough food to eat and cash to buy basic supplies and fresh water, clean, fresh, safe water.
That's how, that's how we're going to deal with this thing.
You know, if I was a religious guy and never mind, I was just reminded of Jerry Falwell talking about, Oh yeah, you know, September 11th is God's revenge for us allowing gay people to hold hands and stuff.
But you know, I wonder what fate God has in store for us for this.
You know, Jefferson said, I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just and his justice cannot sleep forever.
And this is a situation where to this point, the people we're hearing about, in this metaphor, who are subject to God's justice, let's say, are the rich and the powerful, but then again, that's because they're the ones who travel most and they're getting tested first.
There's going to be a time.
I believe there's going to be a time.
Oh yeah.
It's coming to Gaza too, man.
I mean, I was just talking to Phil Weiss earlier about luckily for them, they're under siege and no one can come in and out, but that's not going to last.
Something's going to happen.
There's going to be a time when wealthy countries have gotten this more or less under control and it is going to be rippling through the communities that can least afford to deal with it and have the fewest coping mechanisms.
That's one of my biggest worries about this.
That's a nightmare.
Okay.
So now let me ask you about this too.
You know, politically speaking, you mentioned the Southern secessionists.
So they control, as far as I understand, they control the port city of Aden and then you have the Houthis control the capital of Sana'a and all the land north of there and west to Hodeidah and the port on the Red Sea.
And then in the far East, my understanding is it's almost entirely unpopulated desert out there, but I know there are some populations out there, but, and then UAE, I guess they pulled their main forces, their ground forces out, but they kept their mercenaries.
So it's not that they're really gone.
And I'm not sure the status of Saudi forces on the ground there.
I guess last I heard they'd been run out of that main town East of Sana'a, which was the hotbed of the Muslim Brotherhood support for the UAE's efforts there.
But I wonder when you talk about the government, they all do this, the government, we're talking about a hotel room in Riyadh, right?
I mean, they still call the Houthis the rebels, even though they seized power over the capital city five years ago.
In fact, I argued with a really great reporter on this issue about this a little bit.
I said, why do you keep calling them rebels?
She goes, well, they weren't elected to anything.
I said, yeah, well, Saleh wasn't elected to anything either.
You didn't call him the, you know, Saleh and the rebel regime for 30 years, you know, but we talk about the Yemeni government as though it exists when there really is no such thing, is there?
Well, there's a group of people who, in accordance with international law rules, essentially, and they use this term a lot, they call themselves what directly translates to the legitimacy.
In reality, the forces, the military forces fighting on behalf of the government are pretty fragmented and have had a pretty poor record in battle on most fronts.
The Houthis are what we call in humanitarian speak, de facto authorities.
Whether or not they're recognized, they're the people we have to deal with.
They're the people who we apply to get travel permits from, who regulate every aspect of life.
And so from a humanitarian point of view, we're able to deliver in these circumstances only by essentially dealing with everybody and dealing with everybody based on the authority they actually have, not the authority they profess to have.
So we deal with the government, we deal with the Houthis, and we deal with a whole bunch of other sort of sub-regional armed groups and authorities that are aligned with one or the other of those groups, either tightly or loosely.
But it's a patchwork.
So can you give us an update on the commercial traffic in and out of the Sana'a airport, if there's any?
And also the Hodeida port, which I know is the primary source of trade and food for the people of the north.
And for that matter, tell me about aid, too.
I mean, is anybody trading and bringing food into these poor people besides the aid organizations at this point?
So here's, I got some good news and some bad news.
The good news is that the Hodeida agreement, which was agreed a year ago, December, in December 2018, very, very, very basic and vague agreement to stop fighting around Hodeida port and Hodeida city and to some extent governorate, that agreement is on life support.
Why is that good news?
Because people have been saying it's been on life support ever since the ink was still wet on the paper.
And what that means is that there is some tit for tat military activity there, but basically the collective outrage of the international community has succeeded so far in making sure that commercial and humanitarian goods can get through that port and get to most of the country.
So it's coming in.
It's coming through Aden also, but Aden port is able to accommodate less goods.
And now the bad news, the bad news is coronavirus is coming soon to a country near you.
And so all flights have now been shut down.
Even humanitarian flights.
There are humanitarians in who can't get out.
Has it been running lately for like, say the last half a year or so you have had trade coming in and out?
Commercial flights only through Aden and well, actually, and through other smaller airports in the east.
So they've not been allowed to fly in to Sanaa and that's because of the Saudis, not because of the Houthis, right?
That's right.
It's the Saudis and the government of Yemen, the internationally recognized government that have not allowed those commercial flights.
And that's that itself has been a real killer for a lot of people.
They actually only allowed a medical air bridge out of Sanaa in February.
And what that's meant is that 30 people have been allowed to fly to Cairo for treatment of preventable disease.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands have died waiting for that air bridge to open up.
And it should go without saying that people should be allowed to fly if they can afford it and if other people can help pay their tickets.
It's an unnecessary, really inexcusable killer for Yemenis.
And when it comes to trade at the Hodeidah port, can you compare it to pre-war?
It fluctuates every month, but happily things are coming in there less than they were pre-war, a lot better than they were, say, two or three years ago.
But does anybody have any money to spend on things people are trying to export to them?
And this is, this is the big part of the problem.
You know, even when there's a de-escalation in the conflict, unless there's a real political settlement, people's situations don't get better because they're not getting jobs.
Their money is worth less and less because inflation keeps spiraling.
And the prices of these core household goods keep going up.
So that's, that's, I mean, when I, when I just am asked, how's, how are things going in Yemen?
The first thing I look to is the exchange rate, because if people can't afford food or can't afford other basic household essentials, that's how it's experienced.
That's how they're experiencing it.
Right.
As a part of that is from, you know, the, at least quote unquote, printing of new money, but it's also just the same amount of money with that much less, you know, demand because of, you know, the, the fewer poor people having access to any of it.
So the value of the money is just decreasing in that sense too.
Exactly.
And if you want to, if you want to get a sense of the war as a mic, you know, a little microcosm, you just look at how both the government, the recognized government and the Houthis have dealt with money over the past few, I guess, four or five months, you know, there's new money was printed.
But the government of Yemen said, that's fine.
We're still not paying most salaries in areas, government salaries in areas the Houthis control.
And the Houthis says, well, fine, we are not going to allow the newly printed notes to be used in any, to any territory we control.
And so it's just, I mean, it's, it's, it's a kind of tit for tat that has, um, that has no consideration for what an, a person not associated with this conflict is going through.
And that is what that, what, what that person is likely going through is life and death choices on a daily basis.
Right.
And the thing about inflation like this, it's not just that it makes it so difficult for poor people to keep up with the cost of living like that, but it means that anybody who even has any real savings or any businessman who, who ever would have had the ability to maybe invest in an important new project, all that savings is obliterated by the inflation.
And so there's no capital.
It just destroys capital.
So how can anyone invest in a new project if they're, if they're million dollars is now worth 10,000, you know?
Yep.
If you ever want to, if you ever want to explain this to another guest on your show, Scott, all you have to do is say, Yemen is humanitarian crisis by economic collapse.
And obviously it's, you know, you go into a much broader sort of political economy approach, just explaining how we got there.
Um, and that it's, it's driven by the war.
It's driven by decisions that people are making in within, you know, with total indifference to how people are getting by day to day, but people are suffering because of a national economic collapse.
Right.
And you know what, as Jeremy Sapienza once said, every central banker on the planet only knows how to do one thing, print money.
They don't know how to not do that.
You know, that's just, that's how they are.
That's what, that's how they're stuck.
Look at what's going on in our country this week.
Right.
Um, that's, they're stuck like that.
Maybe you could slow it down somehow or something, but to them, that's the solution to everything.
In fact, in, when Venezuela had their hyperinflation, um, there were funny reports that were saying that, um, you know, they better keep printing more money so the government can afford these escalating prices, you know, and that's in the American media.
That's not even the Venezuelans.
That's the Americans seemingly analyzing the situation down there.
They don't understand.
And it just makes things so much worse.
Yeah.
Implicit in that quote that central bankers only know how to print money, you're already implying that, and they know how to pay the bills, right?
Like really, really basic stuff.
This isn't policy.
This is basic functions.
Um, and when, when the most important bill you have to pay is the quarter rough, the roughly quarter of the country dependent on public service, government salaries, um, then you're failing your very basic responsibilities.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, man, leave me some good news here on the diplomatic front.
Something tell me this goddamn thing is winding up here, Scott.
I hope so.
Um, I can't say I'm optimistic.
But the good news, like I said, that Hodeidah agreement has been on life support since the day the ink was, uh, since the day that the treaty was inked, but it's still on life support.
It's still working.
It's still protecting supply lines and people.
And everybody's talking with each other.
The Houthis are talking with the Saudis.
The government of Yemen is talking with the Southern Transitional Council, the secessionists in the South.
All the right conversations are happening.
They just need a really, really, really big internationally unified push.
And they need, um, permanent countries, permanent member states of the Security Council, United States in particular, to devote a little bit of time to just say, you all need to cut it out and you need to figure out a nationwide ceasefire and a political settlement.
Um, we haven't seen anything like that kind of effort under either the Trump or Obama administrations, but hopefully we'll get there.
Yeah.
And in fact, uh, speaking of which in the debate last week, uh, Sunday night, um, Bernie Sanders brought up the Obama Biden administration's war in Yemen and Biden laughed in his face.
So here Donald Trump probably has this thing on autopilot, hasn't probably even thought the word Yemen in a year and a half doesn't give the slightest damn.
And he's running against Joe Biden, whose fault this is and who thinks it's hilarious and couldn't care less.
Fingers crossed.
You figure it out, man.
That's Scott Paul at Oxfam.
You guys.
Thank you very much, Scott.
Thank you.
My pleasure.
Thanks for having me on.
The Scott Horton show anti-war radio can be heard on KPFK 90.7 FM in LA APS radio.com antiwar.com scotthorton.org and libertarianinstitute.org.
