11/30/16 – Nasser Arrabyee – The Scott Horton Show

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And introducing our friend Nasser Arabi.
He is a journalist based out of Sana'a, Yemen.
And he's from there.
And he's written for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the New York Times and other places like that.
And he runs his own organization in Yemen called Yemen Alan, with two A's, like Alan, but with two A's.
Well, three total, A-L-A-A-N, which means Yemen Now.
Welcome back to the show, Nasser.
How are you doing?
Hi, thank you very much, Scott.
I appreciate you joining us again on the show for the update here.
I guess before we get into the politics, can you just give us sort of an update on what's going on with the air war, and I guess for that matter, the ground war, such as it is being waged by the Saudis and their coalition, which, of course, includes the United States and United Arab Emirates, et cetera, in their war against Yemen now.
Thank you very much, Scott, for having me.
Well, the situation is still the same as it was 20 months ago.
War, airstrikes almost everywhere here in Sana'a and in the other places, like in the south, north, and central.
The humanitarian situation, I think, is known to the world.
It's very, very, very bad, and it's worsening by day.
Three million displaced from their houses.
About half of the population, 15 million, are food insecure.
The casualties are more than 50,000 killed and injured from the civilians only.
And the other half of the population are in need for humanitarian aid and help in a way or another.
And that's because of the blockade that was imposed by U.S.-backed Saudis from the very beginning of this crazy war.
So nothing changed at all.
Saudi Arabia is still insisting on killing and obliterating Yemen.
Okay, but are they any closer to their military objectives, the Saudis?
No, this is the issue.
Saudi Arabia has gained nothing so far.
Saudi Arabia has achieved nothing at all from what it wanted to achieve.
At least the things that Saudi Arabia declared at the very beginning.
Saudi Arabia, at the very beginning, said that it wanted to restore what is called the legitimate government.
The legitimate government is still in Riyadh.
And if it comes to the south, they stay one or two days at most, and they escape after bombings here or there.
So Saudi Arabia did not even achieve the national security, its national security.
Now the battles are inside the Saudi territories, Saudi towns and Saudi cities in the south of Saudi Arabia.
And the ballistic missiles are targeting the Saudi towns there.
And maybe you still remember that last week, or over the last week, Saudi Arabia was complaining to the world that Yemenis are, or what it calls Houthis, are targeting Mecca.
So Saudi Arabia did not achieve anything at all.
But it is still, because of the Obama support, it is still killing the civilians and starving them day and night.
I think Saudi Arabia, the more it commits a crime, the more it gets in problems.
And this is why now we are happy.
We don't want this war to end, because we have nothing more to lose now.
We want Saudi Arabia just to keep, to keep killing, because we want the international community to understand what Saudi Arabia has been doing.
Especially now after the Yemenis now have their own state now, I mean, with the three powers, the parliament and the presidential institution, and the government now, the executive power.
The government was declared yesterday, and Yemen now is running itself, despite all difficulties.
I think you heard that Yemenis declared the government, national government, representing all Yemenis in the south and in the north.
And the most important priorities of this government is to confront the U.S.-backed Saudi aggression.
That is the military, and the security, and the political challenges.
Okay, Nasser, so now there's a lot to go over there.
You know, I guess, first of all, let's start with, you know, reviewing what you just said about the formation of the new government here.
This is being portrayed in the western media as a big setback as far as the peace process goes, because this was against the wishes of the Saudis that this new government would be formed.
I guess it just really proves that there, which everybody already knows, that they could never reinstall Hadi on the throne.
And now this declaration of a new government is basically saying, in your face, Saudi, you're definitely never getting your guy back.
We have a new thing here, as you said, and I'd like you to please elaborate, but it's a coalition of not just the Houthis, but with factions in the south, and presumably with the former president Saleh as well.
So can you please tell us as much as you can about that?
Yes.
Generally speaking, the step was very well planned.
I mean, the formation of this government, it is very national, and it came from very strong popularity and very strong popular support, not from the air.
This government, the head of this government is from the south, Professor Abdul Aziz bin Khartour, who was the governor of Aden, and who was appointed by Hadi, the exiled president.
And the other ministers, who are 40, 42 ministers, they are all from all the spectrum, the political spectrum, and the sects and the regions, not from one region.
So it is not a matter of only Houthi and Houthi allies, Houthi and his allies.
It's almost everyone.
The prime minister was not with Houthi.
The prime minister was in Aden when Saudi Arabia started the war.
So he was appointed by Hadi, and he moved from Sana'a to Aden to be a governor there under the Saudi forces.
But he discovered, when he discovered the problems and the conflicts between Emirates and Saudis, he came back to Sana'a.
So this government is national, representing all, and it has the confidence of the parliament, and also the support of the Yemenis everywhere.
And it is also, this government is paying, this is very important, paying the salaries of everyone, despite the problems of the central bank.
And one more important point is this government will not close the door from the dialogue.
The door for dialogue is still open.
The foreign minister today, the new foreign minister, said today that the negotiations with Saudi Arabia can be resumed anytime according to the Kerry plan.
And Kerry plan says that Hadi should step down and national government should be formed.
This is what he said.
So what Yemenis in Yemen did do is only to help the international community to do what they want.
So it is not a challenge.
It is not defined to the international community, to the international world.
No.
It is helping them from the Saudi obstruction, because Saudi is still obstructing and still spoiling any steps that the international community want to do to end the war crimes in Yemen and to bring peace to Yemen.
So this government is to help, not to hurt.
The door is still open to make any negotiation with Saudi Arabia as aggressors, as invaders, not to close the door at all at all at all.
So the Kerry plan, the officially announced position then of the American, at least the diplomatic part of the government, I don't know if the Defense Department does what the State Department agrees or not.
But you're saying that the Kerry position is that Hadi's days are over and that we're going to have to have a new government here and that the Saudis are going to have to accept that and agree to that.
And yet at the same time, the U.S. is still helping the Saudis wage the war.
That's based on that same premise that Hadi will, in fact, be reinstalled in power there.
Not only Kerry, Kerry wants Hadi to go, because Kerry and everyone in the United States knows that Hadi's popularity is zero from the very beginning of this war.
But the problem that means, and Saudi Arabia also, Saudi Arabia wants Hadi to go.
Saudi Arabia knows very well that Hadi would do nothing to Saudi Arabia at all.
But Saudi Arabia is still sticking to Hadi because then it will be responsible for everything if there is no Hadi.
So the problem that made Saudi Arabia angry this time by Kerry, by the Kerry plan, is that Kerry said this plan was made, this plan or this initiative was made between Houthi and Saudi Arabia.
He didn't mention the legitimate at all.
Kerry did not mention.
Kerry did not even mention Hadi to the extent that there was a revolution here and in Riyadh because of Kerry not mentioning Hadi.
And then there was some rumors that Kerry apologized for Hadi and these things.
So Kerry knows that Hadi should go because Hadi is a problem.
Hadi is a closing problem for both, for Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
So this time Saudi Arabia sent him to Aden.
He's in Aden now for two days, as we said.
But at the same time, he, I mean, Hadi, Hadi would not even be able to help Saudi Arabia to negotiate because he's very weak.
He came to Aden and the Yemenis declared their government because they have confidence and they know what they are doing.
They would not have done this at all if they are not confident.
But they are confident and they chose the best time to declare their government because they wanted to help Kerry and to help the international community to solve their problem, not to make it more complicated at all.
OK, now, so let's get back to the actual battles going on.
And, you know, this is something I just read the other day.
I can't remember where this quote came from, but I was just reading a guy, you know, a real expert saying, look, the Houthis really don't know much.
But one thing that they do know is how to fight.
And this is something that they taught the Saleh government.
It's the same lesson six different times when Saleh attacked them in the north, they kicked his ass and got more and more and more powerful to the point where they ended up being able to take the capital city and drive his successor out of power.
And now he's decided to team up with them.
And now, as you're saying here, they've gone ahead and invaded Saudi Arabia.
You want to bomb us?
Well, we'll invade you.
They don't have air power, but they have land forces and they have missiles.
And did I hear you right that they even attacked Mecca?
And just how far have Yemeni forces gone?
And this would be the Houthis and whatever other parts of the army that Saleh took with him that are allied with them.
How far into Saudi Arabia are they going as this war not only fails but completely blows up in the Saudi king's face here now?
I'll give you an example for this.
Houthis are the most, Houthis represent the most brave tribesmen here in Yemen.
Historically, this is known.
But now it's not only Houthis, Yemenis, all Yemenis are with them.
Fighting Saudi Arabia.
Let me give you this example.
Saudi Arabia agreed what Kerry wanted to do last week.
They wanted his plan to be implemented 100 percent because they have one thing they want.
So the thing they wanted from Kerry is to stop attacking Saudi Arabia and to withdraw from the Saudi Arabia cities and towns and villages and positions.
Right?
One thing that was not, that made this not happen is that Saudi Arabia said they should go, they should come, that Houthis should come to Zahran al-Janoob, to the south of Saudi Arabia.
Arrogantly.
And the Yemenis, the Houthis said, we are not, we are not working with you to tell us this way.
We are a state and you are a state.
We would not come.
So Saudi Arabia got angry because of this.
Because of this.
Because they wanted Houthis to come to the south of Saudi Arabia to what?
To first stop their fighters and to withdraw their fighters.
This is what Saudi Arabia wanted at the very beginning.
And it was not this.
It was a complete package.
It was a complete system.
It was a complete thing to happen.
Not to just to choose what they wanted.
So Yemenis are fighting and they are even more stronger now.
I'll tell you about Mecca.
Last, one month from now, one month ago, they missile Burqan, ballistic missile Burqan to a military base in Al-Taif, which is only 45 kilometers from Mecca.
And Saudi Arabia talked to the world that Yemenis are targeting Mecca to incite against Yemenis.
Forgetting that Yemenis are caring for Mecca more, much, much, much more than Saudi Arabia, of course.
So this is the word that you told me you didn't care.
They said Yemenis or Houthis are targeting Mecca.
The missile was coming to Mecca.
It was not coming to Mecca.
It was going to military base.
Because from the very beginning of the war, Yemenis did not target any civil targets at all.
Just military targets in Saudi Arabia.
So the problem is that the world realized, including Kerry and Obama and everyone, that Houthis, who represent Yemenis, becoming stronger and stronger.
Not weaker.
Stronger and stronger.
They now, they pay the salaries now for the people in the south under the control of Saudi forces.
Now, after the dismantling and after the central bank was dismantled by Saudi Arabia.
Because of what?
Because of the Yemeni donations.
Yemeni donations.
Yemeni raised money for the central bank.
Riyal by riyal.
100 by 100.
Just imagine.
What does this mean?
This means that Yemenis are insisting to fight invaders.
They refuse invaders.
They refuse aggression.
They refuse war crimes.
So this is the story.
Not as Saudi Arabia is saying.
Saudi Arabia is lying and unfortunately misleading the world.
But Yemenis now, as I told you, they want the international community to understand what Saudi Arabia is doing.
Of course, Saudi Arabia and the observers everywhere were surprised why Kerry came from the United States to make negotiations and to sit with Houthis.
This step by itself was a big victory for Houthis, for what they call rebels.
Yes, because Kerry or Obama or anyone in the world wants someone who can do something, if you agree with them.
But they can't do anything with people who cannot implement at all.
Because Saudi Arabia now can't even control the groups who are working with them.
The Houthis who are working with them.
Qaeda, ISIS, Salafi and Federation and everyone.
If you agree with Saudi Arabia with anything about this, you can't make any progress because of these groups.
But if you talk with Houthis, it means you talk with one thing and you can implement the steps.
And this is what Kerry understood and what he said in his statement when he praised Houthis for relating to Americans and for Americans.
I mean, two times.
So when they promise, they keep their promise and they know what to do.
Sana'a, for example.
Sana'a is one of the safest cities now in the region.
Every day they hold on the terrorist cell here in Sana'a without any problem.
No bombings since one year.
No bombings in Sana'a.
No suicide bombings in Sana'a at all.
It's very safe.
So Kerry himself said in his statement that the negotiations should be taken in the safe Sana'a.
In the safe Sana'a.
And you can refer to his statement.
He knows what he means.
He knows what he says.
The safe Sana'a.
The safe Sana'a.
Kerry could not stay even one minute or UN envoy or anyone in Aden.
Although there are F-15 and F-15 and Emirate forces and American forces, but they can't make negotiations there.
They can't sit there.
They can't make any dialogue in Aden.
This is the problem.
All right.
Now let me ask you about, you know, usually when we talk about all this, it's all, you know, the Houthis and Saleh versus Al Qaeda and the Saudis on the other side, more or less.
But, you know, and I'm really an amateur when it comes to Yemeni history here.
But my understanding is that during the Cold War days, there was a major communist or socialist faction in the south of the country when the country was even split apart back then.
And I remember seeing footage of a guy being asked, well, whose side are you on the Houthis or Al Qaeda?
And he said, I'm Viva Chavez and the Boulevard Revolution.
You know, because he's a communist.
He wasn't either kind of these other factions.
And I just wonder what role those socialist groups play, because, I mean, I guess it's implied.
I don't really know, but it's implied that these groups have power and have guns and are their own separate powers that must be reckoned with by Al Qaeda, by the Houthis or whoever else.
So what role are they playing in the war as it stands now?
The separatists in the south are very much and very popular.
I mean, most of the south are separatists.
This is an absolute fact.
No one can deny this.
I'm sorry, you said most of them in the south are what?
Separatists.
They are separatists.
They want to separate.
Oh, separated.
Gotcha, gotcha.
Yes, to separate, yes.
I mean, the government that was declared in Tan'a has also members of the separation movement with their name.
It is a fact that the government that was declared yesterday here in Tan'a has about six ministers from the separatist movement.
So it is a fact.
But let me tell you what is the problem there.
The problem there is that they have many groups.
There are many groups, many separating groups in the south with many heads, and they are in conflict.
They are conflicting with each other, right?
So they are weak.
Qaeda is dominating them because Qaeda and ISIS is one, and the separatist movement is not one.
Now the separatists are being supported by what?
By Saudi and by Emirates.
Although they are not in the same direction.
I mean, Saudi and Emirates are in disagreement over many, many, many things.
So the problem of the south is also unique.
It's a big problem by itself.
And all Yemenis in the south and in the north know their problem.
Anyone who would be fair, now if I want to make you understand and your audience, the separation is not a solution.
We know that there is a problem, but the separation is not a solution.
In case we are okay, in case there is no invasion, in case there is no occupation in the south, the separation is not the right solution.
But there is a problem that must be solved with the south.
This is the thing now.
They can't do anything.
The separatists can't do anything.
Al-Qaeda, I think, is even more and more stronger than them.
And they know.
And also penetrating them.
They are infiltrated.
They are penetrated by Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
So there is a big voice demanding the separation, but they can't be united.
They have not united leadership.
And Hadi is exploiting this without doing anything.
They hate Hadi even more than any other group.
Because Hadi does not do anything for anyone.
Hadi wants only to take revenge, only personal revenge.
He can't do anything to them.
And if he can, he would have done, but he could not.
But you're saying that some of the leaders of these socialist and previously separatist groups have now come, because of the Saudis and because of Al-Qaeda, they have now been pushed back into the arms of the Houthis and have joined this new coalition government.
Some of them.
No, some of them are in the coalition government.
Some of the liberated governments, they call themselves the peaceful Iraq, the peaceful liberation movement.
They are here in the government.
One of them is deputy prime minister.
One of them.
One of them is deputy prime minister.
And even the prime minister himself is talking about the separation by peaceful movement.
If the solution of the South is not, if the issue of the South is not solved.
So there is an issue.
There is a big issue.
And this is why the prime minister is from the South.
This is why the prime minister from this movement, from this southern movement, which means movement.
So the southern issue is a big issue.
And it is actually one of the main reasons of the chaos in Yemen, which started seven or more than seven.
It was like 15 years ago.
In 2008, I think.
2008.
About eight years.
Okay, now tell me this.
And I'm sorry to keep you so long here, Nasser.
One last thing.
Can you give us an update or help us understand just what is the power of al-Qaeda?
I know you call it al-Qaeda, ISIS, as you've told us before.
Their leadership have all been killed by drones.
And so these two groups are pretty much one in the same now.
They don't have as stark divisions as they do in Syria, for example.
But, I mean, we're talking about what was basically a militia and a couple of international terrorists.
But how many people do you count among the fighters of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula or whatever you call them?
If they are, you know, truly sworn to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda hiding out in Pakistan.
How many of these guys are there and how much territory do they actually control at this point?
In Yemen, if we want to talk about a stateless country or statelessness, there is only two powers, two real powers.
Houthi and al-Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen.
But now in the north in Yemen, there is no al-Qaeda and ISIS is almost zero.
Almost zero because they moved.
They were arrested.
They escaped to Saudi Arabia.
Or they are in the battle now against Houthis in the south and in the southern and eastern provinces.
So al-Qaeda, ISIS in Yemen is the second largest power.
There is no power, there is no power, there is no force more than al-Qaeda and Houthis in Yemen.
Unfortunately, unfortunately, this is very dangerous.
You ask me about how many?
As an observer, I would tell you they are about 10,000 fighters now in the battle.
But the problem is not in the 10,000.
The problem, Scott, please, the problem is in the hundreds of thousands of sympathizers.
This is the problem.
This is the problem that Saudi Arabia made here in Yemen.
Where these sympathizers come from?
They come from the schools and the mosques that are funded by Saudi Arabia.
So now they see that this war between Houthis and Saudi Arabia is the war between the right and the wrong.
This is al-Qaeda.
They are fighting.
No one fighting with Saudi Arabia in Yemen except Saudi, except Qaeda and ISIS.
No single fight, no single soldier, no single soldier.
Saudi Arabia is talking about army, national army, haji army.
This is not right.
Who is fighting with Saudi Arabia inside Yemen is Qaeda and ISIS, including in the border.
In the border now, who is defending Saudi Arabia border?
Who is defending the south, the southern cities and villages of Saudi Arabia?
Qaeda, ISIS.
Not necessarily Saudis, but also coming from Yemen.
Coming in front of the eyes of the people.
They hired them, they took them by planes from Aden to the south of Saudi Arabia to fight.
Now they are fighting.
But they are being defeated every day.
Every day.
And Saudi Arabia knows this.
This is why Saudi Arabia wants to stop only the war in the south of Saudi Arabia.
Because they are being killed.
And they are being killed and they are being transported from south of Saudi Arabia to the south, to Aden.
And from Aden to their village.
And we know that many dead bodies came to the north here from Aden.
So this is how Saudi Arabia is doing its dirty work against Yemen.
And making very dangerous things to the region and the world.
Alright.
Well, you say 100,000 sympathizers.
I mean, at the point when Obama started the drone war against al-Qaeda in Yemen in 2009, I mean, there were only, what, maybe 100 of these guys or something.
You're telling me that now you have hundreds of thousands of people who are basically on their side, even though they're taking the side of the foreign country that's bombing them from the air?
Yes.
I and many observers would estimate the al-Qaeda-ISIS fighters before U.S. backed Saudi aggression was 5,000.
But before Obama's drone campaign, we would estimate them at 2,000.
At 2,000.
At most.
At most.
But now there are 10,000 at least who are in the battle.
You know, you can ask me, how do I know?
I will tell you to refer back to the audio of their leader, Khaled Baqarti, the leader of al-Qaeda in Mukalla, who said in a video you can easily see in YouTube.
He said, we are fighting in 11 fronts.
In 11 fronts.
11 fronts means all the fronts here in Yemen, including in the south of Saudi Arabia.
11 fronts.
We are fighting only in 11 fronts.
So when we say 10,000 in 11 fronts, it's even less.
They should be more than 10,000 fighters.
Not sympathizers.
Not helpers.
Al-Qaeda is expanding.
Expanding greatly.
Because of U.S. backed Saudi aggression and because of Obama drones.
Obama drones are very blind.
Obama drones hurting.
Not helping at all.
Hurting Obama, hurting U.S., hurting everyone.
Not helping at all.
They are just building Al-Qaeda.
Because they recruit more, they expand more, and they tell people about how America is bad to us.
This is what Al-Qaeda is saying to their affiliates and their followers.
I mean, yeah, you look at it and Obama has done nothing but make them more and more powerful by bombing them.
And now he's turned around and he's taken the Saudi side and flying as their air force fighting for them.
And we make them more and more powerful either way.
Seems like a pretty good case for non-intervention right there.
There is no proper way to bomb correctly in order to solve our problem.
We've tried both angles here and we do nothing but make our enemies more and more numerous and more powerful.
Yes, the money is coming from Saudi Arabia and Qatar directly to Yemen.
And not only this.
Again and again.
The main leaders are in Riyadh now, and they are members in the Hadi government, and they are directing their operatives here in Yemen.
They are directing them by TV, they are directing them by phone, they are directing them by Internet, and they are following everything.
And they are known.
I mean, they are not secret.
Four members of Hadi government in Riyadh are Qaeda ISIS leaders, and they are designated by U.S. Treasury Department as global terrorists.
And Obama is helping them.
Obama is backing them.
Blindly.
Or knowingly, I don't know.
So it is a problem.
It is really, really a problem that should be solved.
Alright you guys, that's Nasser Araby.
He's a reporter from Yemen, reporting out of Sana'a there.
You can find him at nrab-e.blogspot.com or just, you know, search in your favorite brand of search engine for Nasser Araby.
And you'll find his Facebook and links to Yemen Alon, which is Yemen Now, and his great blog and articles at the Carnegie Endowment and other great places too.
Interviewed with Amy Goodman recently as well.
Thank you very much for coming back on the show, Nasser.
Best of luck to you.
You're most welcome, bye.
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