All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show.
I'm the Director of the Libertarian Institute, Editorial Director of Antiwar.com, author of the book Fool's Errand, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and the brand new Enough Already, Time to End the War on Terrorism, and I've recorded more than 5,500 interviews since 2003, almost all on foreign policy, and all available for you at scotthorton.org.
You can sign up for the podcast feed there, and the full interview archive is also available at youtube.com slash scotthortonshow.
All right, you guys, introducing Nasser Arabi, reporter from Sanaa, Yemen.
He used to write for the New York Times back when they were interested in what he had to say, but all that changed when America switched sides in the war six and a half years ago, and we've been talking to him ever since.
Welcome back to the show.
How you doing, Nasser?
Thank you very much, Scott.
Thank you.
Thank you for having me on.
Yeah, happy to have you here.
It's yemen-now.com is the news site there, Yemen, Elan.
So there's big news.
I've been trying to keep up with everything at antiwar.com.
Jason and Dave both do a really good job of keeping up with everything.
The most important topic to begin with here is the battle for Marib, this major city east of Sanaa, which has been in the hands of the former government of Yemen for, I guess, most of the last six years here in their alliance with al-Islah.
But now my understanding is that the Houthis have driven them out and have taken over the town of Marib, but there's still bitter fighting going on and airstrikes and also a looming, if not already happening, extra humanitarian crisis from all the people being driven out of there, all the civilians being driven out of there by the fighting.
So please do tell, sir.
Thank you very much.
Well, what's really happening in Marib is the last ditch, the last minute attempt to cling to this city, or the Saudi-backed government or Saudi-backed militants are trying to stick in this city because it has a kind of symbolism because it's the last, the last ever, the last stronghold for this government, the so-called internationally recognized government.
So they are trying to stay, but I think what's going to happen is they will fail, whatever they do, because all the indications tell us that they will, or the city, the only city of Marib will also fall in the hands of Houthis because they have only the city itself, but it is surrounded from all directions.
They have only one way, that is the eastern, in the direction of the east into Saudi Arabia and into Hadhramaut, the far east of the country.
So now what they are betting on?
They are betting on a few statements from here and there, from US, from UN, from EU, which calls, or which call Houthis to stop attacking Marib and to stop entering Marib.
But they will not be able to do anything.
Houthis are advancing and they are making advances every day.
And I think what they want to do, what Houthis want to do now is only to secure itself, as I told you last time, to secure themselves for what is beyond.
Because Marib is in a huge desert and it's of course oil rich and it's gas rich and it's important, a strategic one.
So Houthis now are focusing on the neighboring province of Shabwa, which is also oil rich and gas rich.
And they, until now, they have captured the three districts, that is Bayhan, Ain and Harib.
So these places now that are already captured by Houthi would mean to anyone, any observer, anyone who watches what is happening there would mean that Houthis are securing themselves to advance even beyond Marib.
Marib is almost under their control already.
But what does that mean at the end of the day?
It would mean that Houthis would be having the biggest hand in any negotiation table.
And the Saudis did not want to give him this leverage.
And this is why they are carrying their airstrikes day and night, but without any success on the ground.
Yeah, they should have cut a deal two years ago or three or four or five years ago.
Now they're in a much weaker position.
But so let me ask you about the port town of Aden there, the port city of Aden.
Who actually is in charge there?
Is the Southern Transitional Council has essentially the dominant force in that city?
Is that correct?
Yes, it is the Transitional Southern Council, yes, STC, and it is it is not alone.
It is the main one, but it is not the only because there are a lot of groups, a lot of groups who are against it.
There are the Islah, the Islah party, and there are also the Qaeda militants and sympathizers.
And also there are the people who are with Hadi, of course, with Hadi and who don't like either.
So it's a it's a mix of of chaos and insecurity and miss, because, you know, you can't they don't have that that's a good economic situation because it's it's I mean, the value of that of the of the real is is now very, very, very low.
People can't afford even buy food or water or whatever.
So I mean, the difference between the value in Sana'a, the value of dollar and the value of dollar in Aden is more than twice, which means that one dollar in Sana'a is 600.
But in Aden, it's 1300.
Just imagine.
So there is a big, big inflation and there are a lot of economic problems.
There is insecurity and the United Arab Emirates is sticking to Aden because they think that Aden is their share.
Aden is their is their is their portion, unfortunately, in there when they are dividing their country between them, between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
They don't care about Yemen at all.
Now, it's a complicated kind of a relationship here, I guess.
My understanding is that the STC has had this relationship with the UAE forces all along here.
But where do the Hadi so-called government, I guess the government in exile there of Hadi and the Saudis fit into that?
They also have a relationship with STC.
This is good.
This is a good question.
Let me make it clear.
Hadi's government, the so-called government, it is not in Aden now anymore because they came to Aden two weeks ago and there were a lot of bombings and a lot of clashes and they were forced to go back to Saudi Arabia.
Very few ministers, very few ministers, two or three, are still there.
They are hiding.
They can't work in public.
They can't work in open.
They can't do anything.
So it's, what government is this?
What can they do?
They don't know what people need.
They don't do anything to the people.
So it's because the STC is not willing to have them there because they are, they call them like Islamists or like Islah or northerners or, you know, they have a lot of labels.
So they can't stay in Aden for three or for one month continuously.
They can't stay.
They can't stay.
They can't stay at all.
But when Mohammed bin Salman wants to say I am here, he just forces them to go back to Aden.
And they, when they come, they are being attacked or bombings is happening there or assassination is there or violence is there or, you know, so they are not safe to stay in Aden.
They are not safe for themselves, let alone to do something for the people.
So there is no government in Aden.
There is no Saudi government in Aden.
There is some forces, Saudi forces, yes, in a, in a very small place called the Maashiq presidential palace, which is surrounded by their soldiers.
But they are not also spared from the attacks.
Sometimes they receive attacks to this place, which is the most fortified place.
So what government is this?
Now Nasser, a few months ago, I was talking with a human rights activist type who was really fearful about what was going to happen with the sacking of Marib because he said there were so many people, I guess, I think he said 3 million people or something were essentially, you know, refugees hiding out in Marib or nearby and how they were all going to be forced into the desert, that there was not many other places for them to flee when the fighting really came to Marib.
So now here we are, you know, three, four, five months later, I wonder what happened to all those people.
This is not accurate.
This is not accurate.
I'll let you know why.
Because they are talking about, they are keep talking about the refugees, they are talking about the IDBs, rather, I should say IDBs, not refugees, because they use them as human shields.
So these IDBs are people who came to Marib from Sana'a, for example, from Sa'dah, from Amran, from the places under the control of Houthi.
But they would not go to the desert, as they say, no.
Most, many, many of them now, already when they feel that the city is already sieged and blockaded from all directions, and clashes are there, and their life is in danger, they come back to their places.
Because they can come back.
There is no problem.
I mean, Houthi would not tell them, Houthi would not tell them why you are coming back.
Many people are coming back to Sana'a, to Amran, to any place where they can find their house, or relatives, or even camps, camps where they can find some kind of aid, some kind of help from this or from that.
So it's not that big a problem at all.
And the number is very exaggerated.
It is not three million.
It's about all in all, from the very beginning, it's about a million.
This is my estimation.
About a million.
And this is big, of course.
I'm not saying it is a small number, of course.
But the people who talk about them, especially the Saudis, and the people who receive money and aid from Saudis, they don't mean, they don't care about the life of these people.
They just say, no, Houthi should stop attacking Marib, Houthi should leave Marib for us.
Because there will be a humanitarian crisis.
Yemen is already a humanitarian crisis.
The whole country.
I mean, millions and millions of people are almost in poverty, in famine.
So why only Marib now?
If they are sincere about, if they care sincerely about Marib, they should talk about the whole country.
The whole country is being attacked, being bombed, being stabbed all the time.
So why only, why now they focus only on Marib?
I am now criticizing this kind of bias.
Why only Marib?
I got to say, Nasser, in this case, the guy that I'm speaking of that I talked to here has been really good on all sides of this and, you know, for a very long time, and I think is part of the movement that wants to end the blockade, first and foremost, whether there's any talks going on or not, that the blockade must be ended, which is, you know, probably the highest importance out of all the other issues at play here, right?
Yes, I'm now talking about the United States and the U.S.
Oh, I got it.
I understand what you're saying.
I just want to, because I was the one who brought him up.
I just want to make sure that, but I understand what you're saying about the Saudis and their crocodile tears.
Yes.
Exactly.
Yes.
Yeah.
Now, OK, so, so let's continue on the humanitarian crisis here for a minute.
So, you know, I brought up the movement here by some peace groups in the U.S. trying to just focus on stopping the blockade.
Is it still the case that at the port of Hodeidah that commercial shipping is essentially stopped or, you know, how much trade is actually going on there now and then, for that matter, the Sana'a airport as well?
See, the blockade is the women of Saudi Arabia.
Forgive me, Scott, the economic blockade is the only women in the hands of Saudi Arabia.
They can't do anything except this.
They can't do anything.
The airstrikes don't work.
They just don't work at all.
But they have the blockade.
They have the starvation.
They have these economic things.
Yes, they have it.
So they allow some kind of commercial or some ships, commercial ships or aid ships whenever they want, because they don't want people to die, but they don't want them to live.
So Saudi Arabia is like this.
They don't want Yemenis to die, but they don't want them to live.
They want them to submit.
They want them to yell.
They want to subjugate them.
They want to bring them to their knees.
This is what you think, what you feel Saudi Arabia is doing.
So I can't tell you now it's closed.
I can't tell you it's open.
But they use it as a weapon in their war.
This is a fact.
This is a fact.
And I think the only thing that can happen to help anyone who wants to help Yemen, whether U.S., U.N., EU or whatever, the only thing that can help end this war is to change the U.N. resolution 2016, or 2216, because it's a war, it's a resolution of war.
And it is the thing that helps Saudi Arabia to do whatever they want, to allow Saudi Arabia to do whatever they want.
So anything now, any attempt from any side, from any country, from any place would fail.
Why?
Because they are based on this resolution that Saudi Arabia is using to attack Yemen and kill Yemen and destroy it.
OK, hang on just one second.
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So can you talk about the economy now and the level of famine, starvation in the country?
It's been six and a half years of this.
Yes, it's about seven years now, and it's very weak.
Everybody knows that it is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.
But what people don't know is what does that mean.
A lot of people don't know what does that mean to us.
What does that mean to people?
Because it's just if you are not there, if you don't see, it's different.
So it means a lot.
It means that Saudi Arabia wants to make a reality a reality by doing so, by doing this, by stabbing people, by locating the country and by destroying it.
But what kind of people, what kind of country, what kind of government, you don't know.
Because Mohammed bin Salman is focusing on his ambitions, ambitions and his projects and his plans without caring about Yemen at all.
And this is the thing that would make things worse and would also make Saudi Arabia not succeed in what they want to do, of course, because 30 million people would not watch themselves being killed and stabbed without doing anything to Saudi Arabia.
Because they can't, they don't.
I hope you have seen the people last week who were in the streets talking about ending the war and stopping the war and who are here in the northern part of Yemen, who are supporting Houthis and who are with Houthis because they, not because they believe in what Houthi is saying or in what Houthi wants even to do, but because Saudi Arabia is killing them, because Saudi Arabia is destroying them, because Saudi Arabia is locating and stabbing them.
That's it.
All right.
So tell me, do you have some kind of estimated death toll?
I know that Akhlad Data has, the last I heard from Akhlad Data, which seemed to be doing the best on this, they had more than 100,000 killed just in direct strikes and violence by the Saudis, not including people who've been deprived to death, died of cholera, died of famine, died of easily treatable diseases of other descriptions and all these other things.
I wonder, you know, what your current estimates are for, you know, those killed actually in fighting or having their houses bombed by the Saudis and then also from the consequences.
Yes, I'll start with you, Scott, with this number that was announced only last week by UN, UNICEF I think, yes.
They said that 10,000 children were killed and injured.
And that's in direct violence.
They're not, you know, in airstrikes or shootings.
Yes.
Right.
Yes.
Yes.
Not malnutrition, not related disease.
No, no, no, no.
Right.
It's just by airstrikes.
Right.
Now, this is good.
10,000 children, not women, just children.
Right.
If we say now, say 10,000 women, or maybe women are more than children.
So 20, according to UN, 20,000, okay, 20,000 is not, one is a big thing, of course.
So 20,000, if I say 20,000 by the UN standards, I would say my statistics or my estimation is men, women, and children are now about 300,000, 300.
And I am talking, we have been talking together, Scott, all along about this.
And I have my own things to estimate and to calculate these things.
Now it's 300.
Because when UN was saying 10,000, I would tell you, I was telling you that it is 100.
It is 100.
No, it's 100.
And I challenged the UN here, because they don't have statistics, and they are trying to appease Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia is paying a lot of money to them.
They can't say anything.
The best people in UN would keep silent.
The best, the good people, the people who are not happy to see people killed, civilians being killed, children being killed, women being killed, but he or she would not say.
They would keep silent.
This is what is happening.
This is the problem of UN.
This is the problem of, unfortunately, of the people who receive their money or their main money, their main part of money from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
This is the problem.
The problem is humanitarian, and also it is a matter of conscience.
It is, you know, yes, give me money and I will keep silent.
This is what we feel.
Things are going.
Things are happening.
All right.
Now, how's Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula doing these days?
They are now thriving, unfortunately.
Why?
Because Saudi Arabia, Marib is one of their hotbeds, Marib is a hotbed historically, not from now.
Marib, Shabwa, and Qaeda, Beida, three neighboring provinces in the eastern part, in the Middle Eastern part of Yemen.
Historically, from 1980s, 1990s, Qaeda are the safe haven, hotbed for Al-Qaeda.
Now Houthi is attacking these places and the U.S. is saying, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Don't attack Marib.
Don't attack Shabwa.
Don't attack Qaeda, Beida.
Why?
Because civilians will be killed.
People will be, I mean, the humanitarian situation will deteriorate, and so on and so forth.
So they are lying to us.
No, Qaeda is thriving now because of the statements, because of the American statements, because of Ned Price.
Every day now he comes up and says, oh, stop, stop, don't kill Houthi, don't attack Houthi, don't enter Marib.
Why?
Why don't enter Marib?
Marib is Qaeda.
Are they okay with Qaeda?
Okay.
I don't want Houthi to attack any place in Yemen, yes.
But U.S. as U.S. should say something neutral, should say, okay, end this war, end the war, not stop attacking Marib, because Saudi Arabia wants to have a place for its missionaries and its, so this is not good.
This is, this is, this is, this is politics, not, not humanitarian things, not neutral things.
No, no.
Qaeda is thriving because of these statements of, from U.S. State Department.
And also from his, from, from, from Blinken himself, because they are now, they are now, they are sympathizing with, with Marib and with, with, with Beida, with Shabwa, with Abiyan.
Why?
Because they want Saudi Arabia to have influence, and Saudi Arabia has no influence except with those people, except with Qaeda, ISIS, and the Salah.
This is, this is the point, Scott.
Yeah.
Well, listen, I mean, it sounds like with the Houthis continuing to advance and win the war, that just means that there's essentially, you know, all the incentive is on the Saudis and, you know, I guess the rest of their allies, the British and the French and whoever helping them along with the Americans to wage the war, to just double down and continue on rather than negotiate.
My understanding is that Britain is the so-called pinholder on Yemen, which means if they don't introduce a resolution on Yemen to change a thing in the UN Security Council, they sort of reserve the right to do so to themselves and for nobody else.
So there's essentially nothing that can be done other than these governments, the British government and the American government being pressured by the populations of their own countries to stop this and to change the resolution, to end the blockade, to force the Saudis to settle or some kind of thing.
It seems like all the incentives are for the thing to just keep going.
I mean, the Saudis can afford to keep dropping bombs if it comes to that, right?
Exactly.
Houthi is very happy, Houthi is very happy with what is happening with, you know, Houthi has no incentive in stopping the war.
Houthi has no incentive in sitting down, in sitting down to the negotiating table at all, because why would he, why would Houthi stop?
Why would Houthi go to the negotiating table?
Why?
Well, to spare the population, if they can get the blockade lifted and get, you know, relations normalized and get the economy back going again.
Exactly.
Exactly.
And they are, I mean, they are making advances and Saudi Arabia is in a big problem.
But Houthi is happy because Saudi Arabia is the one that needs to solve their problems.
Not Houthi, Houthi now can manage how to do it.
They can, people can get by, people can manage now to cope with all these kinds of difficulties.
And Houthi is okay.
So if Saudi Arabia is saying, no, I have initiative, I have that kind of things, they should do it.
The ball is in their court and they, no, Houthi is happy.
Houthi is making advances and he would not stop.
He would not stop because he has, Houthi has the upper hand.
And this is something, this is a fact.
And a lot of Americans are saying there, in their think tanks or in the top circles there in the US, they say that Houthi has no incentives to stop.
We should change our discourse.
We should change our rhetoric.
We should change our narrative to convince him to sit down to the, not to tell him you should or you must, or you, as Saudi, you know, like this kind of superiority and no.
Yeah.
I just, I'm watching on Twitter right now.
I just saw someone showing some airstrikes in, I guess, in Sana'a, seems like.
Yes.
And I am expecting this and I can't tell because I'm talking with you, but I'm expecting this because Houthi is attacking, Houthi is escalating their missile and drone attacks to Riyadh, to the south, to the vital places, whether economic or political or military.
So when Saudi Arabia come to Sana'a, we understand what it means.
It means that a missile or a drone is going or already gone to Saudi Arabia.
Yeah.
All right.
Listen, thank you for your time on the show again, Nasser.
It's great to talk to you.
Really appreciate it.
I'm very sorry for the inconvenience.
I'm very sorry for the inconvenience and for the technical things.
But inshallah, we'll try to improve everything.
Thank you very much, Scott, for all your interest in Yemen.
This is good contribution from you to the Yemeni people.
It's very good.
All right.
Well, I'm happy to do it and sorry for what my country is doing to yours and on behalf of a lot of people.
No, no.
We are human beings.
Politics is politics everywhere.
We are human beings.
That's right.
No.
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, my friend.
Talk soon.
Yes.
Thank you.
Thank you.
