07/15/14 – Patrick Cockburn – The Scott Horton Show

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All right, you guys.
I'm Scott Horton.
This is the Scott Horton Show.
All right.
Hey, we got the great Patrick Coburn on the phone.
He is a Middle East correspondent for The Independent.
That's independent.co.uk.
He's the best Western reporter in the Middle East, is what he is.
He's the author of the book, Muqtada, Muqtada al-Sadr, The Shia Revival and the Future of Iraq, and a brand new one coming out at the end of the month about the rise of the Islamic State.
Oh, yeah.
Good.
Wrong button.
Welcome back to the show.
How are you doing, Patrick?
Not so bad, thanks.
Good, good.
Appreciate you coming back on the show.
And a very important story that you have here in The Independent, Iraq crisis, how Saudi Arabia helped ISIS take over the north of the country.
And I think you're not just referring to, as we've known all along for three or four years now, three years that the Saudis have been helping to finance the revolution in Syria.
But I think you're going further.
Please explain.
Well, the basis of the story is really that ISIS didn't really do this alone.
It did this with other military organizations within the Sunni community.
And these organizations are generally financed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
The piece is really based on a very interesting speech made by somebody called Richard Dearlove, who was head of British Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, the British equivalent of the CIA, a total of 10 years ago.
And he was quoting Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who was the very powerful Saudi ambassador in Washington for 24 years, and then head of Saudi intelligence and the guy who was most involved in supporting the jihadi movements against Assad, and probably similar movements within Iraq.
And he said, Dearlove quoted him as saying, the time is not far off in the Middle East, Richard, when it will be literally God help the Shia.
More than a billion Sunnis have simply had enough of them.
And the implication that Dearlove drew from this was that at the heart of Saudi policy is anti-Shiism, which I'd agree with.
I mean, I think rather like anti-Semitism was at the heart of fascist ideology in Europe in the 20s and 30s.
So basically, the Saudis can't avoid getting involved in militancy against Shiadom, according to Dearlove, which is why, which are hence their present involvement in Iraq.
All right, now, when was this conversation between Bandar and Dearlove that we're talking about here?
Oh, it was quite some time ago, but he drew the interpretation that, he drew the conclusion that at the heart of Saudi policy is a sort of sympathy for any anti-Shia jihadis.
And hence, he says, look, it's just impossible that ISIS could have started this great revolt in northern Syria without the participation of outside powers, notably Saudi Arabia, which I think is probably a pretty fair summary of what happened.
Well, now, as we've talked about over the years, the CIA has certainly helped to coordinate the support.
But, you know, their spin, Patrick, has always been that, well, look, they're arming and financing.
Well, and they deny the arming from time to time and admit to it at other times.
But certainly the money and the aid that, you know, as they call it, that goes, they say, well, it just goes to the Free Syrian Army, the moderates, the carefully vetted moderates, not ISIS.
But is it just, that's just the Americans are directly, are not directly arming ISIS, but the Saudis are?
Or how exactly does it break down?
Well, I think that they were.
I think, unfortunately, you know, that ISIS doesn't need any more arms.
This has just taken Mosul, you know.
This was one time 60,000 Iraqi troops were meant to be there, you know.
So probably their weapons, their tanks, their artillery are all in ISIS hands.
So they don't need arms directly from the Saudis or anybody else at the moment.
But over the last few years, though, are you saying that the U.S. and Saudi have been directly arming ISIS this whole time?
Well, I think indirectly that, you know, there was always this pretense that there was something of a moderate Saudi opposition.
And that, you know, aid was going to them.
But, you know, the U.S., they were not directly doing this, but they were well aware that the Saudis and the Qataris were doing this.
And they were doing this under sort of the U.S. guidance.
And there was sort of a pretense that it wasn't going to the sort of al Qaeda types, but it obviously was.
So we ended up, you know, we have an opposition, a Syrian military opposition now, which is wholly dominated by jihadis and increasingly dominated by ISIS.
That the only players that are going to be left are the Syrian government and ISIS.
So the U.S. will then, and the Europeans and the others will have to make a choice.
Are they going to remain against Assad, in which case they'll be de facto allying themselves with ISIS?
Or they're going to give up this pretense that there is a sort of Syrian moderate opposition left.
You know, on Monday, there's a big provincial capital in eastern Syria called Deir ez-Zor and a big province, oil rich province, and 98 percent of that is now in the hands of ISIS.
All right, now, I'm sorry, we've got to stop right there.
That's a great point to hold it.
We've got to take this break.
We'll be right back, everybody, with Patrick Coburn from The Independent.co.uk.
All right, you guys, welcome back to the show.
I'm on the line with the great Patrick Coburn from The Independent.
And we're talking about Iraq, of course, ISIS and the Saudi role, the American and Saudi role in supporting the war in Syria, the war against Assad, which Patrick has been warning in print and on this show for the last few years is re-energizing the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and threatening to, you know, tear what was left of that society into pieces, which is happening now.
And so now to, you know, to the degree that this is all deliberate, I guess the question really comes down to the question of control.
Where's Bandar Getahl, these guys, Patrick, and what's his relationship with Baghdad?
Is he directing their policy or advising them, or he's just hoping for the worst?
I think it's more that they at crucial moments, they facilitate them.
You know, I think it was private money that was going there, but they don't need it anymore.
I think that they were sort of facilitating them almost directly in charge sort of last year and the year before and delving out money to armed groups in Syria.
Now I think Bandar's been sacked, I mean, maybe because of that and because the Saudis have sort of, government has realized that they've produced this Frankenstein monster that they don't really control anymore in the shape of ISIS and doesn't need them so much because its victories means that it can get all the recruits it wants.
It controls lots of oil wells, so it doesn't need so much money.
It doesn't need weapons because it's just captured them from the Iraqi army, which got them from the Americans.
So, but I think that they did play a crucial role.
And I mean, the Saudis also through their influence in Turkey, Turkey kept that border open, 500 mile border into Syria.
And how did all these jihadis get to Iraq?
And how did they get to Syria?
They came across the Turkish border, you know, they flew into Ankara.
Well, do you think though, that it was Bandar's plan that they would end up moving back to the East into Iraq and sack Mosul?
You know, they always hated the idea that Baghdad had fallen to a Shia government, you know, they wouldn't talk to the Iraqi Prime Minister.
So yeah, I think they did play a big role in that.
I don't think they're hands on in control of ISIS now.
But I think they played an absolutely crucial role in the development of ISIS.
One that they may be regretting now, but it's too late.
Well, so let's go back then to 2004 through 2008 or nine, when it was the fight was America and the Shia militias, and, you know, aka the Iraqi army, versus the Sunni based insurgency was was the Sunni based insurgency and Al Qaeda in Iraq, Zarqawi's group financed by the Saudis then?
Well, they always got money, you know, from private donors, I think the government was too smart to give it direct.
But, you know, there are lots of other ways of doing this, by turning a blind eye to where money goes.
I mean, all the US government reports during after 911 said, you know, that's where the money is going coming from the for these groups is coming from private donations.
But it's sort of, you know, the government, the Saudi government, the Kuwaiti government, the other Sunni monarchies can just not try very hard to stop that money going.
And that's the money I think was crucial at one time.
I don't think it is so crucial now, because ISIS has taken over, it's declared the caliphate, it rules this enormous area.
You know, with natural resources, with the population, it can tax, it can sort of level blunder as well, you know, what is taken from the banks and elsewhere.
But so I think the Saudi role was crucial.
It was sort of disastrous, I think, for themselves.
And I think disastrous for the Sunni community, because, sure, in Iraq, and in Syria, they have a lot to complain of, that they were marginalized, they were denied jobs, that young men were arrested and tortured and so forth.
They were thoroughly alienated.
But now they have chosen of their vanguard party, a wholly bloodthirsty, bigoted, sectarian group that has sort of declared war on the Shia and everybody else who doesn't hold exactly similar religious views to themselves.
And they're isolated internationally.
This is also an area, you know, which is held by ISIS militarily, but it's going to be impoverished.
Those salaries will be paid, the schools and universities will be shut, the lack of electricity, lack of water.
So it's going to be a pretty dismal scene for them.
So I think the Saudis, in thinking in Prince Bandar, and imagining that they were striking back against the Shia, have actually doomed the Sunni communities in Iraq and Syria to a terrible future.
Well, but like you were saying, right before the break there, they have seized more territory in Syria, including some oil wells.
It's just not going to be enough, you think?
It's not enough, you know, not to keep a whole community going, you know, we're talking about millions of people here.
You know, it's kind of convenient for a bit, but they've got money, they've got money to pay their fighters, they've got, you know, you can also buy all various tribes by allocating, you know, so many 4,000 barrels a day to this tribe, 2,000 barrels a day to another one.
You can do that, but that doesn't keep a whole area going.
You know, it's sort of cut off trade, can't you, you know, it used to be Arbil, which is the Kurdish capital, is about 200 miles north of Baghdad, and I used to, I was talking to somebody in the trucking business, was telling me, you know, six weeks ago, you want to truck from Arbil to Baghdad to carry a load, it cost you about $500, now it costs you $10,000, you know, so all the trade routes are disrupted and cut.
Right, well, and that's going to affect everybody all around.
Now, so what about Aleppo?
I was talking with Mitchell Prothero from McClatchy, and he was saying how, you know, ISIS must see that really any kind of full frontal assault on Baghdad is a fool's errand, it's too late for that, but maybe they'll, you know, move back toward Aleppo, which is lower hanging fruit and maybe more important to them.
You know, what's happening in Aleppo is that the government, the Assad forces are sort of moving against weakening rebels who are not ISIS.
Rebels are being sort of squeezed out of existence, the military opposition, including Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, is being squeezed out of existence between the government and ISIS.
Now, ISIS is moving, taking over the whole of the east, it might come back into Aleppo city and might confront the government and try and take Aleppo, certainly a feasible strategy.
As regards Baghdad, I don't think they can take Baghdad, but they can do a lot of nasty things to Baghdad, they can still cut the roads around Baghdad, they can take over some of the Sunni enclaves.
And one of the bad news out of Iraq is that the government, you know, it's now over a month since the fall of Mosul, it hasn't been able to put together a counterattack, it's trying to attack Tikrit today, I think, I don't know if it's getting anywhere, but you know, it hasn't been able to respond to that great defeat, but things still seem to be spiraling downwards.
So, yeah, I'd agree that they're not going to be able to storm and capture Baghdad, but they can certainly make life very unpleasant there.
Now, it seems like most of the fighting between Sunni and Shia since 2003 here, and by most, I mean 99%, it seems like it's all just been about who's who and a faction fight over, you know, Baader here versus AQI there and these tribal differences and this and that kind of thing.
And yet more and more after all these years of fighting, it seems like it's becoming sectarian sort of for its own sake.
And now accusations of blasphemy and this kind of thing are coming to the forefront.
And the way you describe ISIS, they sound like Nazis with this pathological hatred of Shia that they just mean to exterminate every last one of them if they can.
Is that really right?
It can't really be done, but they can kill a lot of people along the way, you know.
But they would like to, is your point.
They're really that hell-bent about it.
You know, these sort of extreme jihadis, what one Afghan journalist called holy fascists, you know, and it's a quite useful descriptive phrase.
They are like fascists.
I mean, they're obsessed with violence.
They're obsessed with enemies who can be only opposed by violence.
They're obsessed with the idea of being holders of the true faith.
But, you know, in the long term, I don't know what, I think their prospects are not great.
But in the short term, and you just look since beginning of June, you know, they've taken over northern Iraq.
Now they've taken over a great chunk of eastern Syria.
While people are focusing on what's happening in Gaza, they've been able to do this, you know.
So there are movements also that depend on success.
You know, what attracts a lot of Sunni young men to their ranks is that joining a victorious army, you know, victorious armies don't have too much problem with recruitment.
Right.
It does seem like the Islamic Front and the Nusra groups, the various factions in Syria, quite quickly, you know, signing up, switching sides over to ISIS.
Yeah, I mean, they, you know, it's what else they're going to do.
They can't really fight these guys because their morale is high, the numbers are up, and they've got all this equipment taken from the Iraqi army.
They've got tanks, they've got artillery, they've got rockets.
They've got Humvees, they're all driving around in Humvees, you know.
So they, if you're another Syrian opposition, you know, you can either, you know, join them or die or run.
And they're doing all three, but they're not able to oppose them.
What's been the general reaction around the region from the religious leaders and all the scholars?
Because after all, Baghdadi is saying, you all must swear loyalty to me, that kind of thing.
So that must have provoked a kind of counter reaction.
Pretty negative, you know, but what's the legitimacy of the people who are condemning him, you know?
Again, the fact he's victorious and they're not, you know, and all these religious authorities in these different countries, you know, what's their legitimacy?
What's their credibility?
What have they done, you know?
You know, I think he's a very nasty piece of work.
I think these, you know, as I say, are sort of very dangerous fascists, but they can say, well, we declared our caliphate, you know, and it's getting bigger by the day, we're winning.
And, you know, so it doesn't much matter if a preacher in Cairo says he doesn't like them, you know, but what have those guys ever done?
So it's very appealing, I think, for a lot of Sunni young men throughout the region.
And all the people who are just, you know, the legitimacy of governments throughout the region is not high, you know, whether it's Saudi Arabia or Jordan or elsewhere, or Egypt.
So these guys will have a lot of attraction to people there.
Yeah, it seems like especially if these imams criticizing the Islamic State can be accused of basically serving whatever emir, or sultan, or king, or so-called president that they're living under in whatever country, seems like that'll help discredit everything else they stand for, too, in the face of condemning ISIS from such a position.
Yeah.
So, you know, maybe the majority will be against them, you know, but they'll attract a core of true believers, you know, and these guys are very well organized, you know, and, you know, they haven't put too many... haven't really put a foot wrong since they attacked in Mosul militarily, I mean, or otherwise, you know, slaughtering people, you know, it's terrible, but militarily they haven't made too many mistakes.
They've, you know, they've attacked where people haven't expected them to attack.
Do you have any idea what their strategy is in the near-medium future for Jordan?
Two things they'll do, you know, they seem to think one enemy at a time, you know, what's noticeable in Baghdad was very little violence, because they obviously didn't want to dissipate their forces, you know.
They, you know, as regards the Kurds, they have a, you know, 600-mile common frontier with the Kurds at the moment.
There is fighting in a few areas, but generally they don't want a confrontation with the Kurds at this moment, and it's not happening.
So, you know, it's kind of an impressive sort of command and control.
All right.
Well, thank you so much for your time.
I've already kept you a bit over here, but I sure appreciate you coming back on the show, Patrick.
I will do.
All right, Shaul, that's Patrick Coburn at The Independent, independent.co.uk.
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