11/14/12 – Pepe Escobar – The Scott Horton Show

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All right, y'all.
Welcome back to the show.
I'm Scott.
Sorry I'm way late with this, but I got Pepe Escobar on the phone here.
Globe trotting intrepid reporter for the Asia Times.
That's atimes.com.
Welcome back again, Pepe.
How are you?
Hey, I'm fine, Scott.
Thanks for having me.
Great to be with you again.
I hope the communication today is better than yesterday.
Check one, check two.
Can you hear me all right?
Yes, I can hear you, although you're breaking up sometimes.
Oh, are you kidding me?
Sometimes, yes.
Sometimes you're kidding me, or sometimes it's breaking up?
No, no, no.
I'm not kidding you.
Your voice was just straining off 10 seconds ago.
Oh, hell.
Well, I'll try to speak up.
Hey, tell me about the future of the war in Syria.
In fact, let me start with a more specific question like that.
Is it really a civil war?
Because it sort of seems like, nah, it's just the CIA, mercenary proxy army, you know, pretend revolution.
In Syria, now it is a certified civil war.
There's no question.
It was brewing up as a civil war six months ago, eight months ago.
Now it's a full civil war, especially because of external interference, which is going to be even more pronounced now with this new revamped Syrian opposition, which, by the way, they elected a new leader.
The guy lasted for less than 48 hours because he was not appropriate enough.
And then they elected the second new leader in Doha this past weekend, al-Khatib, who is the former imam of the Umayyad mosque in Damascus.
This guy is amazing.
I've been touring the Arab press today, and it's amazing because people are starting to find out a lot of stuff about al-Khatib, and his own website is under profound cosmetic surgery at the moment.
He said a lot of outrageous things about anything you can imagine, including, this one is fantastic, Facebook is a U.S.
-Israeli conspiracy.
But these things are disappearing from his website.
You know, it's being quoted by some independent bloggers in the Arab media.
Among other things, he's a Sunni preacher, the former imam of Umayyad mosque.
Umayyad mosque is one of the seats of Sunni Islam.
He is a jihadist, in fact, and all references about jihad in his website are being destroyed as we speak, you know.
And this guy is being sold by the Americans, by the Brits, and by the French as the new moderate face of the Syrian opposition.
He's going to be, let's put it this way, enthroned next weekend in a meeting of the...
Friday in London at a meeting of the Syrian donors, the so-called friends of Syria.
Hillary Clinton used to call them friends of Syria.
And there's going to be an Arab League European Union meeting where this guy is going to be...
No, he's the new face of the Syrian opposition.
So, after that, what are we going to have?
We're going to have...
In fact, the French press is already reporting that the French government, Francois Hollande, they want to give more weapons to the so-called rebels.
And they are going to lobby very hard for a no-fly zone.
The Brits are going to do the same thing.
We don't know what Washington is going to do for the moment, but probably it's going to be along the same line.
There's going to be more money from Qatar and Saudi Arabia at the same time.
So, everything spells out an expansion of the civil war, not only to northern Syria and the borders with Turkey and with Jordan, but now there are echoes from people in Damascus itself talking about an upcoming battle of Damascus, because the battle of Aleppo, by the way, has not finished yet.
It dropped out of the headlines, but it's still raging.
But it's possible with this new Syrian opposition organization, more weapons flowing to the rebels, that they're going to start attacking Damascus all over again.
So, you know, it's a Lebanon-ization scenario.
This thing could have many battles over and over again for the past few months and go for years.
So, yes, there's no question.
It's the all-over civil war, which is already spilling out to Lebanon.
It's going to convulse to Jordan as well.
There are other Syrian refugees in Jordan, all over the Middle East.
And, of course, don't forget Turkey, of course.
We know that Erdogan is going crazier by the minute, talking about his neo-Ottoman policies, talking about let's start at the same time antagonizing Washington.
Look, we're going to start trading in gold instead of U.S. dollars.
So, you know, everything is going crazy, vertiginously crazy.
In fact, you know, the speed of everything that's happening is completely out of control.
But, you know, everything points to the civil war expanding inside Syria and to the neighbors.
All right.
Now, it's been a while since we've talked about this one aspect, I think, since I asked this one question.
I believe you told me before, though, that you thought that if this thing gets bad enough in Damascus, where Assad does have to flee, or even maybe all of the Alawites are purged out of the government, that kind of thing, that the structure of the state itself, you did not expect it to fall, I believe you said.
You thought that the state of Syria will survive this.
The only question is, will there be a decapitation?
Sort of like Egypt, only much more longer in slow motion and with much more violence, of course.
But as far as exchange of figurehead is one thing, complete overthrow of the state is another thing entirely, right?
Yes.
But the thing is, in terms of popular support for Bashar al-Assad and the regime itself, if there was a poll, an informal, let's say, a formal Gallup-style, Ipsos-style poll, I would say at least 60 percent of the Syrian population would still support the regime, if not more.
Especially in the big cities, in Damascus and in Aleppo.
In Aleppo, because they saw the so-called rebel organizations face-to-face invading their homes, you know, taking over their homes, destroying parts of the cultural and financial heritage of Aleppo, including, I would say, almost 80 percent of the souk in Aleppo, which is one of the most beautiful souks in the Middle East, and a source of, the main source of the local economy, in fact.
In fact, it was the rebels who were fleeing from the Syrian army that set fire to the souk.
They destroyed parts of the mosque in Aleppo that is very close to the souk itself.
So the people, the population in Aleppo, they saw the method of the rebels, and especially the Salafi jihad is embedded with the rebels.
And in Damascus, most of the population in Damascus, they view these people as hicks from the countryside, you know, illiterate gangsters from the countryside who don't understand anything about the cultural importance or the economic importance of Damascus.
If you talk to people in the old city of Damascus, interesting, because, by the way, this guy, al-Khatib, the new leader of the Syrian opposition, he is from the old city of Damascus, where you find all sorts of people with different tendencies, from Sunnis to Alawites to Kurds, to Kurd merchants.
They sell, most of what they sell is to foreign tourists, so they interact with the outside world all the time.
But these people tend to be tolerant, and Damascus is an extremely tolerant place.
And they see these people, especially as a bunch of crazies from the countryside, and on top of it, they're religious fanatics.
So they will never find, like, in terms of conquering hearts and minds in Damascus, this is not going to happen.
On top of it, the business elite in Damascus, they are part of the regime, they profit from the regime, they have concessions, and including the Sunni bourgeoisie in Damascus, it's part of the government.
You know, they control large parts of the economy because of the government policies.
So it's a country that is divided, I would say, maybe 60-40 or 65-35 percent.
The problem is that there is no possible solution except everybody sitting at the table.
This is what the Iranians have been saying for a while now.
And even the Turks already started flirting with the idea of, okay, everybody has to sit at the table with no precondition.
But now, with this reorganization of the Syrian opposition, and probably the rearming in bulk of the Syrian opposition, any possibility of a diplomatic solution now, it's gone.
Well, and the Americans, along with the rebels, insist that Assad has to go first, and only then do they have to sit down and talk with anyone.
It's true, that's the major number one precondition.
It's the same thing with the Iranian nuclear dossier.
Iran first has to stop enriching anything, then we start.
This is not a negotiation.
When you go to a negotiating table, you know, everything is on the table.
And there must be concessions on both sides.
And repeatedly, as much as it is a police state and an extremely harsh dictatorship, the Assad regime already said, okay, we are willing to sit on the table and start discussing a possible transition period, let's put it this way.
But the opposition, the former Syrian National Council, from the beginning they said no.
And obviously, they were saying no because the U.S., Britain, France, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia were telling them to say no.
And this is not going to change after next Friday or after next week.
It's going to be still the same thing.
It's still Bashar Assad has to go.
We haven't heard explicitly from the new Obama administration yet, but I'm sure this is what's going to happen.
And wait, if we get Susan Rice as Secretary of State, oh my god, then it's going to be humanitarian imperialism 2.0.
Speaking of which, the Rambouillet Accord in Kosovo, right, which said, hey, sign this peace accord, which says that we can occupy every square inch of your country, including your house and your office and your palace and your, basically, take over everything, or else we'll bomb you.
And they called it a peace accord.
It was the offer that Milosevic couldn't possibly accept rather than couldn't refuse.
And so that's basically the same thing that they're doing with Assad here.
Although, you know, it seems like they're holding back, Pepe, and they're not really arming the rebels as much as they could.
So are the Americans just pushing for a stalemate at this point?
Is that what they want?
In fact, in terms of not arming the rebels as much as they could, in fact, that's for sure.
In Washington, they start freaking out because those weapons were not being monitored by the CIA.
That was the official Washington version that you could read in the Washington Post and New York Times.
No way.
In fact, the weapons were going everywhere, and especially those weapons bought at the black market, usually Russian weapons bought at the black market and financed by Saudi Arabia, they were going to these jihadi components of the rebels, or these jihadi militias, in fact.
There was absolutely no supervision, as if the CIA on the ground in Syria wouldn't know exactly where the weapons were going to.
This is completely absurd.
No way.
So now, apparently, this reorganization of the Syrian opposition, people assume in Washington, in London, in Paris, that now they will have a better control of the whole mechanism.
But maybe from a Western point of view, yes, but from the point of view of what the Qataris and the Saudis are doing with the collaboration with the Turks, nobody really knows.
There is an inundation of weapons from the black market in Syria, from all over the place, even from Ukraine, from Uzbekistan, from Central Asia.
Nobody knows where the stuff is coming, how this stuff is coming from, how it's being financed, we know.
But where is it going, especially?
So if you are a powerful commander, a jihadist commander with wide connections, local connections, especially, let's put it this way, the Sunni Iraqi commanders who are now working on the ground in Syria, look, their connections range to Chinese, to Russians, to Central Asians, and nobody's monitoring at all.
Right, yeah, I was challenging the audience yesterday to go and google it, where there are Afghan fighters fighting on America's side in Syria.
The guys who are who are the enemy, supposedly, that we're fighting against in Afghanistan, the very same guys, or hey, why go up against the U.S. Army when I could be working for them?
Exactly, but it's the same old U.S. tactic of the enemy of my enemy is my friend, in fact, like Abdel Hakim Belhadj, who was a former jihadist, he was in jail under Qaddafi, he was liberated by Saif al-Qaddafi, then he started to fight against Qaddafi, supported by the West, especially NATO, and now he is organizing a transit of a Libyan jihadist from Libya to Syria.
It's the same thing, and then we have Hillary Clinton freaking out, because these people, former jihadists, former terrorists, are fighting on our side, but we cannot trust them.
Of course, you could never trust them in the first place.
You try to use them, but they know when they are used, and they know it, and they fight for their own agenda, which has nothing to do with Washington's agenda.
It has been like this.
Look, the Afghan jihad in the 80s was exactly the same mechanism.
So this mechanism is being replicated in Libya, now it's being replicated in Syria.
So, that's the whole point.
I wish the great Thomas Johnson was alive today to tell us once again, blowback is inevitable, and will come in waves and waves and waves.
Right.
Hey, let me ask you this.
Do you know who's behind the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, or on human rights, and especially the reason I'm curious, of course, they're the people who always say this many civilians were killed by Assad today, etc., but they also brag about mass murdering civilian captives, and suicide bombings, and whatever.
So, I thought that it was just the MI6, but then I thought, well, they would know better than to brag about being suicide bombers, but then, geez, even suicide bombers in Syria, if they really want Western help.
One guy in London, financed by a shady United Arab Emirates foundation, which, you know, right away you can tell it's a Wahhabi-style foundation.
That's it.
But it's incredible how they managed to corner Western media, like, you know, they were this huge organization with observers on the ground, watching everything and every misdeed committed by the Syrian army.
No, it's this guy in London, in a small cubicle, let's put it this way, receiving a lot of YouTube videos from all over the place in Syria, and then sending these YouTube videos as links to mainstream media all over the world.
These videos, they could be staged.
There's no monitoring how they were filmed, what are they filming.
Sometimes you have just like a neighborhood militia somewhere with a kid with a Syrian opposition flag saying, look, we have been attacked, these are the victims, etc.
But there's no corroboration, there's no identification.
That famous CNN phrase, CNN was not able to verify this video.
This applies to all the videos that the Syrian observatory of human rights is distributing all over the world.
So, you know, it's easy, just a little bit of money, a cubicle and a guy in a room.
And then you have something that feeds U.S. networks, French networks, British networks, most of Western mainstream media.
Amazing.
Yeah, I mean, I'm not trying to give the guy PR advice or anything, I just thought, you know, what a shabby operation.
I mean, if it's an operation that includes suicide bombers, how well is it supposed to be run, I guess, but it seems like, then again, you know what, it doesn't even matter.
It doesn't even matter that it does get out in the media here that America and the suicide bombers are on the same side, because they never quite simplify it that well and really explain it.
And so it's fine, you know, as long as there's bad guys in Syria, then something's got to be done right.
And it doesn't matter who's on whose side, really.
Look, in terms of what could be done right in Syria, it's impossible.
There's no practical diplomatic solution on the table.
And in fact, when they had Lakhdar Brahimi trying to come up with a solution, you know, he also failed.
Just like Kofi Annan, before himself, failed months ago.
In fact, you know, months ago, I was at a Kofi Annan lecture in Sweden.
He was trying to defend his so-called peace plan for Syria, but there was nothing to it.
And he was practically forced to admit in his own words, in fact, without even being asked the question, because they didn't allow us to ask any questions to Annan, that this thing was bound to fail.
It's completely crazy, you know.
And we're trying to blame the government on anything.
Now, in terms of atrocities committed by both sides, you know, it's more or less even.
So it's completely absurd.
It's not a one-sided conflict, and it never was.
In terms of destabilizing Syria, okay, destabilizing Syria is our way to get to Iran.
But now it's way beyond that.
Destabilizing Syria practically now means destabilizing the whole Middle East.
And this is already happening.
Well, you know, it's completely one-sided in the media, and the narrative goes, and they don't even have to explain it, Pepe.
They just say, you know, in fact, even The Onion ran a piece about how indifferent the American people are, and the entire premise being, of course, that if the American people cared and made their government do something about it, then once America started intervening in Syria, the violence would stop.
That, you know, oh my God, how long can we let this go on before we do something, as though when the U.S.
Army gets there is when calm is going to break out over the place.
Exactly.
And in terms of cultivating the indifference of American public opinion, it's so easy.
Look, there's a war in Afghanistan for 11 years now.
People don't even know that it's still going on, you know.
And in terms of Syria, this could also go on for another few years, and people would forget that there is a major conflagration in the Middle East.
In Iraq, you know, there's a sort of a brewing civil war in Iraq as well, compounded with the fact that the Americans plan to leave, but we don't know how, in the next few months and until 2014.
But these guys who are fighting against Assad in Syria, the hardcore Sunni guerrillas, they will be commuting between Syria and Iraq, and soon they will be back in Iraq in full force, because they want to bring down the Maliki government.
So this the Shiite-Sunni war in Baghdad and around Baghdad and the city of Triangle is very much on at the moment, simmering, but soon it's going to explode big time.
Well now, what about the possibility that the rebel-dominated parts of Syria would attempt to just secede and break Syria apart and create a new Sunni-Iraqistan, or whatever, because of course Iraq's already pretty much divided, right?
The Sunni Arabs are almost entirely kicked out of Baghdad, they have their Anbar province and all that, and whoever said Iraq is a state anyway?
Exactly.
At the moment, Iraq is at least two countries, because northern Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, is practically autonomous, practically autonomous, even selling their own oil to Turkey directly, bypassing Baghdad.
In Syria, the Syrian Kurdistan, it's amazing.
In fact, the Syrian Kurds, the way they sell it or the way they spin it, they are liberating Syrian Kurdish towns, like three or four a week.
This week, as far as I remember, this week there are at least four new cities that they are totally ruled by Syrian Kurds, with absolutely no interference from Damascus.
But this was part of a pact a few months ago between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds.
They said, basically, if you don't attack us, you can do anything you want in Syrian Kurdistan.
And that's exactly what they're doing.
It's becoming virtually an autonomous province and practically independent, and with very close connections with Iraqi Kurdistan as well.
So it's going to become a mini- Iraqi Kurdistan or annex.
So depending on the next, if there is a post-Assad government, what's going to happen about it?
If Assad stays, obviously later on he will reorganize his pact with the Syrian Kurds, probably giving them a lot of autonomy, as long as the oil keeps flowing under the directorship of Damascus, let's put it this way, you know.
All right, now wait a minute, Pepe, a couple of things here.
First of all, did you just say, I want to make sure I understood you right, did you just say that the Syrian and or Turkish Kurds already have a real tight relationship with the Iraqi Kurdish government?
Look, the Syrian Kurds and the Iraqi Kurds, yes, because in fact the Iraqi Kurd, Barzani, in fact, he broke Kurds, more or less, he broke more or less, no, he broke the absolute deal between the different factions in Syria Kurdistan, so they would unite and not squabble among themselves, but rather unite and start self-governing their part of the country.
This deal was a new deal in northern Iraq, and it was broken by Barzani in person.
And obviously, these different factions of Syrian Kurdistan, they united, talked to Damascus, and they brokered their informal deal in terms of, we take care of the area, we self-govern, we won't interfere, and we're not going to attack you, the Syrian army, or the Bashar al-Assad government.
So the collaboration between these two, Iraqi Kurds and Syrian Kurds, is very close.
The Turkish Kurds, they are all looking, they are looking at all this, and these, and now we're talking a different story, because this is a 16 to 17 million Turkish Kurds, and they say, look, if two parts of Kurdistan are already in business, together, getting closer and closer, and the Iranian Kurds, who are very silent at the moment, they are already making their moves to get closer and closer with the Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds, now it's our turn to do something.
So that's when the big, big, big problem for Turkey comes in.
And obviously, the Erdogan government, they never thought about it.
They never saw it coming, in fact.
So if we had closer collaboration between these four Kurdistans, and the advancement towards a Kurdistan state, or at least the idea of a Kurdistan state keeps going on, then all hell breaks loose all over the place, including Turkey.
And that's why Turkey, at least for the past few weeks, they have been very silent.
They still don't know what they want to do.
Erdogan is a loose cannon, in fact.
And Turkish public opinion, they don't want a war against Syria.
They don't want skirmishes on the border.
They know that if they get involved, the Kurdish problem inside Turkey is going to explode all over the place.
So the Turks are silent for a very good reason.
They don't know what to do afterwards with their so-called zero policy with their neighbors, the campaign, sorry, diplomacy, which later became a lot of problems with our neighbor Syria.
And now they're stuck.
Right.
Yeah, I guess Assad really just called their bluff when he granted Kurdish Syria autonomy, that they just went, Oh, got me.
They are in a total binder at the moment.
All right, now, here's the thing, because this is all very interesting, but I wanted you to...
They're in opposition, in fact.
I think we should wait two or three weeks to see how are these people going to position themselves in terms of selling themselves as moderate, if they're going to start getting even more weapons from different sources, and if we see this so-called pre-announced battle of Damascus, you know, start to happening, then things are going to get really even messier than they are, you know.
Well, now, so all that stuff about the Kurds is very interesting, but I was actually asking about, and I want to see if you would like to comment about, or, you know, develop that that same kind of line of thought, only instead of the Kurds in regards to the Sunni Arabs, and whether, you know, their old border between Syria and Iraq could be dissolving, and that, you know, some of these fighters apparently were saying that they were, I guess, looking at Aleppo and Damascus, and maybe at least considering giving up, and just settling for secession, and then perhaps an alliance with, you know, the Anbar province, or whatever, the Sunni-dominated regions of Iraq.
You're talking about a possible alliance between Sunni Iraqis in the Sunni triangle with the Sunnis inside Syria, is that it?
Yeah, that maybe the the rebels in Syria would just secede from the union, rather than insisting continuously on on taking over Damascus and Aleppo, you know, that maybe they would just break away, and then ally with their their fellow Sunni Arabs in Iraq.
Yeah, okay, Scott, look, even if they would even, let's say, the Sunni countryside in Syria succeeds, what are they going to live off?
There's nothing there, and in fact, most of the Sunni countryside, the western part, there are a few towns of relative importance, Hamas, Homs, and all that.
The eastern part is desert.
There's absolutely nothing over there.
There's not even oil.
The oil is in the northeast, in the Kurdish mountains, you know.
They have absolutely nothing.
So they're going to control the countryside, but for what?
If they don't have penetration in the big urban centers, and especially in Damascus and Aleppo, they have nothing.
And in fact, the government, there were some right-wing think tanks in the U.S. until a few weeks ago, at least, they were wildly speculating that Bashar al-Assad government would leave Damascus, they would flee Damascus, and they would go to the Alawite mountains and have a sea base in Latakia, the port of Latakia, and they would constitute a mini Alawite state.
This is completely stupid.
They don't need to do this.
They still control the parts of the country that really work, and the wealthiest part of the country as well.
The only possibility that they would flee Damascus is if this battle of Damascus becomes a new Stalingrad.
Then they would have to flee.
They would be forced to flee.
They don't even need to.
They think that they will hold on.
They could contain this thing, of course, to an enormous cost and a Lebanon style.
You know, this thing prolongs to years instead of only 20 months.
You know, so, and the real problem is this hardcore Sunni Iraqi, especially from western Iraq, some from Anbar province, of course.
They are supporting the Syrians in terms of guerrilla tactics.
They don't have the numbers to face the Syrian army at all.
Right.
So this could be a prolonged guerrilla war fought in the Sunni countryside, or if the Syrian army decides to abandon the Sunni countryside because it's not relevant anyway, fought probably in the big cities, in Damascus and Aleppo.
But we still have a stalemate.
This thing could go on for years.
All right.
Well, thanks again, Pepe.
Great to talk to you, man.
Thank you.
Thank you, my man.
Good luck with everything.
Thank you.
Appreciate it.
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