All right y'all welcome back to the show It's anti-war radio I'm Scott Horton and Introducing Stephen Ellsbury He's been writing some independent articles at Voices.yahoo.com The most recent is called there will be no war with Iran at least not a hot one Before that he had a couple of more will Israel attack Iran and Getting out of the Gulf the path to free market oil.
Hey, that sounds interesting.
Welcome to show Stephen.
How are you doing?
Thanks.
Great to be with you Scott Good.
Well, I'm happy to have you here and I've read the last two will Israel attack Iran No way and there will be no war with Iran at least not a hot one great news But how can you be so sure?well because Hey, we know that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, so I Can't see why we'd launch one seriously Sure, there's a lot of public rhetoric that says that there are menace They're going to nuke Israel and even the United States, but at the upper echelons, they know this is just a falsehood Well now you pointed out that there's this Haaretz piece from back in 2005 or at least I don't know when the Haaretz piece is from pardon me But at least that they ruled out that the WikiLeaks show I guess it's from last year or something the WikiLeaks show that the Israeli government decided I guess back in the Olmert years that That there's no way that they could have a war with Iran themselves anyway, right?
Exactly.
Yeah, the program was too widely diffused.
They said and so they dropped a military option way back then And that would also be my second reason why I don't think will be a war because well, it's been dropped all along hmm Well, you know for all the threats and talk it sure has amounted to be nothing but a bunch of boy crying wolf You know for the last Geez, I don't know seven eight years at least however, if Israel I mean that Haaretz piece it says that they dropped the idea of being able to wage the war themselves But then again, we've known all along that they've known all along that they need us But can't they count on us or at least can't they count on the fact that if they started dropping bombs on Iran that Iran?
Would hit American assets in the Gulf and then America would have to join the fight Now isn't that the danger that Netanyahu will drag us into this thing whether the president and his men wanted or not That's true.
And there's also the danger that He could also risk rupturing the special relationship if he drags us reluctantly and unwillingly into another war Well, but that's unlikely.
I don't know I think I think they could get us into five more wars and we'd never lose that special relationship Not as long as John Hagee's vote matters in the Republican Party and New York City's in the Democratic one Yeah, there's also the risk of it tanking the world economy again Well, why don't you talk a little bit more about that?
Because of course You know, it's a weird thing They build up Iran to be this giant threat and yet the reality is that they're a crappy little fourth world nation So that's one of the reasons to not have a war with them Also, I guess that could cause one to doubt that a war against them would have consequences that bad worth avoiding You know, why not have a war sometimes they're fun Maybe it'll make up for the bad time we had in Iraq, you know And then it'll be okay that Iraq is controlled by Iran because then Iran will be controlled by pro-american stooge puppets like back in the days again Yeah, speaking of that it's possible that Israel would reach an understanding or a detente with Iran even with the current regime because they were pretty friendly during the 80s and And they lost that during the 90s and beyond and I don't think they'd mind getting that back.
So I don't think they'd be willing to wage another war and weaken Iran Too much so that that they lose that balance of power in the region.
There's the whole periphery doctrine aspect of it.
Mm-hmm Yeah, a very good point.
But uh now please elaborate Elaborate a little bit about the economic consequences because I have to say Stephen that I agree with you and that You know, even though the threats of war Seem to be you know as loud as always at least coming from Israel My gut tells me that they really don't mean it that maybe back I don't know six seven years ago They thought that they could get away with it that it would work out something like that a little bit of this neoconservative optimism that has since evaporated and that pretty much everybody now knows what you're about to say about What a war with Iran would really mean for American interests in the Middle East for the global economy, etc, etc So why don't you talk a little bit about that?
Okay, well That's for the economic consequences.
We all know that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed there goes a fifth of the world's oil And what that would do to?
India and China first and foremost and us too As I said, like the economy's sleepwalking towards recovery.
It's kind of artificial at this point, but there's no chance that it could seriously recover But that would be jeopardized in the event of a war And what about?
Afghanistan Right, and there's also the risk of Iran sponsoring terrorist activities well Just anti-american activities and also in our Kuwait.
We've still have some troops stationed there as well Yeah right there within range I remember it's been years ago now back when our guys were really occupying Iraq by you know Better than a hundred thousand men over there The Mahdi army of Muqtada al-sadr and the Bata Brigade of the Supreme Islamic Council, which is pretty much I guess just folded into the Iraqi army now They all promised that if America ever bombed Iran that they would fight us.
They would turn on our guys in an instant and You know, of course, we still do have Lots of CIA and State Department people left over as well as mercenaries and I guess I still don't know for sure whether we have Air bases in Iraq or not, but I have to believe that They're trying at least to keep some up in Kurdistan or something I don't know, but certainly we still have that massive embassy in downtown Baghdad And all those people are you know, basically just set for you know Roof of Saigon Embassy type moment right there if they're lucky I guess Yeah, there's also the aspect of Pakistan joining as well Joining a fight on Iran's side Should they be attacked?
Russia too Yeah, and you know all those stands where America has friendly dictatorships now We don't really know do it does anybody know the extent of Iranian infiltration of say?
Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan or Kyrgyzstan or any of those places where they could cause trouble for us?
Right, right.
Well, I guess not American soil somebody every beneficial came out and said that that wasn't a possibility But certainly in the Middle East and elsewhere There could be retribution sure and you know Yeah, I tend to think that any threat of Iran being able to strike back in the United States Obviously, they don't have a Navy or an Air Force that they could do any such thing with But people say that you know Hamas or Hezbollah could have agents in the United States that do that But I've never seen any reason to believe that they have you know that say Hezbollah has anybody here except cigarette dealers You know black market guys Selling cigarettes out of their trunk and sending the money home anything like that Surely the FBI would protect us if there were actual Iranian backed terrorists in the country there They're certainly willing to go the extra mile against used car salesmen and trapped.
Oh, I'm sorry We gotta take this break.
We got to take this break Steven, but we'll be right back on the other side of this We're talking about the possibility of a war with Iran and why Steven thinks we just won't have one All right y'all welcome back to the show It's anti-war radio.
I'm Scott Horton, and I'm talking with Steven Ellsbury He's been writing for voices.yahoo.com There will be no war with Iran at least not a hot one is his latest And you put forward a whole theory in here Steven as to why the Israelis are constantly Bellowing and blustering and bluffing about Iran Reasons that have nothing to do with actually going to war against them, right?
And again, it has more to do with the periphery doctrine where Israel is trying to counterbalance The Arabs with various neighboring non-arab states such as Iran Turkey and in the past Ethiopia before it went red and well now they've lost Turkey because of the Mahdi Marmara incident and So they'd like to get Iraq back especially considering the upheavals of the Arab Spring They're not feeling too confident right about now Well because they used to get along just fine back in are you saying?this the 80s when they were secretly selling weapons to him or the 70s back when the Shah was a friendly sock puppet of America in Israel Both and I don't really think it the sock puppetry matters so long as they're coordinating their foreign policy together Yeah, so do you think really that this whole thing?
That I don't know for example that the Americans and the Iranians are talking to each other and kind of planning this out Hey, you know come spring We're gonna beat our chest a little bit and then you guys beat your chest back And then we'll drive up the price of oil a little bit and we'll lead them on for another year or what's going on here exactly you think Sure.
I mean, that's what those sanctions seem to be doing there aiding the regime and the deleterious effects Are left upon the population?so there does seem to be a bit of a back channel Dealing is going on Certainly if unacknowledged Well now it certainly is the case that Well, I don't know what's certainly the case Well, here's what's certainly the case the neocons always pushing for war with Iran Joshua Muravchik had a piece years ago.
Not too many call operation come back and it was us neocons have been completely disgraced Well, here's how we can make our comeback we'll put America into a war with Iran and then we'll lead it because we're so great or whatever and You know those guys really push the weekly standard the National Review They're always in favor of war with Iran the foreign policy initiative and the emergency committee for Israel are are they part of just a big bluff you think or or You know, maybe they're not they're kind of just operating according to their own interests rather than You know in exact conjunction with the Israeli government or what do you think?
There's a bit of that going on but self-interest job-seeking job maintaining in this case it's like when Danielle Pletka said the real reason that a Nuclear Iran would be so bad was because that they wouldn't use a nuke not that they would right?
And so it right it would discredit them completely from then on and well, I don't see why they're not discredited already Egregious failure all around.
Yeah, that was funny.
She really shouldn't have said that I wonder if she got scolded There's a very rare moment of candor on I'm a neocons part.
Yeah, that's what they call a gaffe when someone with political power accidentally tells the truth oops Yeah, it turns out they're not a threat.
The threat is that they're not a threat.
Oh, really?
Huh?
Okay, and there's there's also that eyesight of a piece by Jeffrey Goldberg and he seems to concede that Yeah, the bluff theory is a possibility because a senior Israeli official told him as much Right.
And now that was what the piece before the last big one, right?
It wasn't the one that got all the attention right, and there's also that that INSS report that I referred to back in my previous piece to this one Yeah, you could add you could add that to the reasons why there won't be a military option happening Not this year or next year or possibly ever well now I can see though when they leak things like Netanyahu fears that once the Ford Oh facility is up and running That if they did ever embark on a crash program to produce weapons-grade uranium and to make a nuclear bomb That they could do it at Ford Oh and that you wouldn't be able to do a thing about it from the air that And basically Israel will be able to do a thing about it at all that America would have to go in there and you know drop in paratroopers or whatever to take the place out or tanks or God knows what in order to get the job done and So we got to stop them before the Ford Oh facility is completely up and running that kind of thing now, obviously Okay, it makes for a great talking point and it makes for a great line in the script but I could also see why from Netanyahu's point of view if I try to put myself in his shoes why he would really think that and Really think that the Ford Oh facility could be a major problem if he's suspicious that they really do mean to make nukes once They think that they have all of their technical ducks in a row So, you know, I wonder what about that these red lines.
Are there no red lines?
What if they actually withdrew from the NPT and started making nuclear weapons?
You think Israel bomb them then or they would basically understand that they're just gonna have to put up with it, right?
Yeah, and in the event of they're pursuing an actual nuke and taking out the inspectors yet, and there would be military action Yeah, but that's why I call this whole thing like a pseudo Cold War like because one side doesn't have any nukes right Yeah, yeah, and and we've known that they're not making them I mean, that's the whole thing is even though the common narrative is that oh, no They're making nukes and they're gonna wipe Israel off the map and whatever anybody who actually has any real political power knows it That's not true Right.
So this is all about stopping the civilian program and this goes back to keeping Iran weak, but not too weak So that they they realize that they need a partner in Israel And we are just being with them We know Trita Parsi was on the show yesterday and he was saying that you know the his more positive spin on what just happened with Netanyahu and Obama is that when Obama said that the red line is them making a nuclear bomb on one hand You know, he's saying for certain we would go to war if they ever started to try it sounds like but it What he's also saying the flip side of that is that he's basically again Implicitly just like he did back in o9 with the fuel swap deal and all that.
He's basically implicitly accepting Iran's Enrichment of uranium which is contrary to the UN resolutions Which say that they must stop enriching altogether and and contrary to a Bush policy Which was they must stop enriching altogether He is sort of tacitly accepting you can make your fuel for your electricity and medical reactors Just don't make bombs out of it and we'll be all right You think you have much hope that they could like work out a deal that actually says that on a piece of paper somewhere That we could put this theater behind us then if we're not gonna actually have a war It would be nice to stop having the threat of it all the time.
I Certainly hope so.
I mean, yeah for the longest time they were trying to cease all enrichment whatsoever And the reason they wanted to do that was because then Iran could export all its domestic oil They would need to use that as a domestic source they could rely on nuclear energy and of course The effect that that would have on the worldwide market Drop the price of oil right Which is sometimes what the Empire wants and sometimes not I?
Guess that's the magic is timing your oil policy with what Washington wants And it's interesting because back in the 70s there their nuclear program was no issue we were assisting them And yeah people like Kissinger and Rumsfeld who were involved with that So it's not so much the fact they have nuclear energy.
It's that they're independent Right.
Well, I guess the Israelis at least used to say that Having a nuclear program at all is tantamount to having a nuclear weapons program It's all the one big same difference, even though the reality of course is not that way You could see how somebody would could craft a policy around that premise anyway And you know after all here's here's a flaw in your argument that I kind of left out Which is I thought Robert Baer made a good point on TV when he said that when the Israelis are sending the Mujahedini cult Communist terrorist cult around assassinating scientists that that cannot and they know that that cannot Actually degrade Iran's nuclear program, they're trying to provoke the Iranians into doing something stupid That's how terrorism works.
The action is in the reaction They're trying to bait the Iranians into attacking the United States in the Gulf in order to get us into a war Robert Baer said on TV and that sounded right to me.
What do you think about that?
Exactly.
Yeah, I agree.
There's also Going back to that meeting with Netanyahu and Obama earlier in the month It's possibly being about stopping our outing of their activities in that regard Like the MEK and Jindala, right?
Yeah, cuz there has been a bit of that lately Well, then I guess the answer to that was to keep leaking or I don't know whether it's highest level leaks or mid Mid-level leaks seem like pretty high level leaks to James Risen at the New York Times two different stories that he wrote about All around all about the background of the CIA's conclusion that the Iranians are not right now pursuing nuclear weapons which that seemed to me to be a pretty big deal, hopefully a Bit of a last word on the subject at least for a while, right?
Yeah, and and that meeting could also have involved us ramping up our own covert ops spying More on the ground operations not necessarily Terrorism relying on the MEK and Jindala Sure.
Yeah plenty of intelligence operations and that kind of thing my curse Just make sure that we keep up that covert campaign Right Israel will do their part.
We'll do ours Going along those lines, I think Yep, sounds right.
In fact, my wife Larissa Alexandrovna wrote a story When the WikiLeaks State Department cables first came out about Mayor Dagan who now is opposed to war Then was the head of the Mossad and he was briefing or at least having a discussion With the deputy assistant secretary of state or maybe it was just the deputy secretary of state His name is it wasn't Christopher Hill Yeah, pardon me now the American ambassador's name escapes me, but he's basically saying First of all, yes, our red line is Closer than yours, but wouldn't you rather start the war on your own terms rather than have us drag you into it?
That's one thing and then the other thing is they're talking about working with the Iranian dissidents Which means of course the MEK and probably Jindala too.
So Seems like there's some Seems like there's some cooperation on those issues at least back in the past even if The Americans are pretending now that it's all the Israelis and none of us doing it Dagan was also going for regime change in that piece and I do think that that could be like the ultimate goal the ideal goal but also I do wonder if If that's tenable now considering that what would the effects be of a Persian Spring?
Would that in turn precipitate a Shia Spring which I can't imagine the Gulf States would want to possibly occur True Yeah, I mean that could be a real problem for them.
I mean, well they got They got Iraq sewn up but not so much Bahrain not so much Northeastern Saudi Arabia where the Shiites live and where all the oil is and it was Nicholas Burns was the name of the State Department Funky I was trying to think of there Right.
Yeah The story is leaked cable reveals us Israeli strategy for regime change in Iran is from November 2010 All right.
I'm sorry.
We're over time and we got to go but I want to thank you very much for your time And for your great writing I sure appreciate it Thanks for having me Scott.
All right, everybody.
That is Stephen Ellsbury He's got a couple quite a few actually here at Voices yahoo.com.
There will be no war with Iran at least not a hot one and Before that will Israel attack Iran?
No way and Very well informed commentary there links to his sources Very important in the 21st century to link to your sources.
Okay, we'll be right back
