All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show.
I am the Director of the Libertarian Institute, Editorial Director of Antiwar.com, author of the book Fool's Errand, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and I've recorded more than 5,000 interviews going back to 2003, all of which are available at scotthorton.org.
We can also sign up for the podcast fee.
The full archive is also available at youtube.com slash scott horton show.
All right, you guys on the line, I've got the great Mike Swanson, he's responsible for this show's existence.
I hope you guys know he's the best advertiser I got for what going on eight years now.
He's one of the major reasons why you guys get to hear this thing at all, so I hope you're grateful for that.
I hope you listen up, because he's a very successful former hedge fund manager on Wall Street.
He now runs wallstreetwindow.com, where he gives investment advice to the likes of you.
By the way, I know he's been saying for a while, get out of the stock market, it's a giant bubble, it's going to crash.
Here we are, Mike.
Welcome to the show.
Yeah, thanks for having me.
I hope you were taking your own advice there in the last couple of weeks here.
Unfortunately, everything in the market has dropped since it peaked out a couple of weeks ago.
Gold has fallen, oil has collapsed, everything has gone down, so I'm not going to boast that I'm making a lot of profit.
In fact, I'm probably down from the high I made in my account a couple of weeks ago, maybe 9% or 10%.
Everyone is losing money unless they're completely in cash or shorting, and unfortunately, I wasn't clever enough to do that.
This is playing out quicker and differently than I thought.
I thought the market might fall and then bounce back up, and then some of the things that are happening now are happening, which is really what I want to tell you about.
I don't want people to think I'm trying to predict what's going to happen.
In some ways, it's more important to understand exactly what's happening because there's stuff going on in the markets that are really breathtaking and different with a lot of ramifications to them.
Can you start with my confusion that I would think that everybody's fleeing stocks?
I understand they're fleeing for cash.
I saw that happen in 2008, going for U.S. securities and stuff.
But it seems like they'd be running like hell toward gold and silver and Bitcoin and all those things.
But they're all falling, too.
Niu.
Yeah.
That's really significant.
One thing that's actually kind of creepy for me is that over the past several ten years, there's been several corrections in the stock market where it would fall 20 percent.
Typically, people do panic on the bottom and sell on the bottom.
That's kind of what makes them in.
And I would actually get phone calls from people that live in my community that would all of a sudden call me up and say they're scared or should I sell or whatever.
And now I'm getting calls from people wanting to buy, which I think they're calling, hoping for reassurance or something.
But the point of this is to say that I don't actually think people are panicking yet, which is kind of bad on one hand.
Cross.
Wait, this crash in the markets in this last week and a half, that's not the panic yet?
I don't think so.
If you go back to 2008, historically, people do panic when the market falls over 20 percent.
And that year, the market fell 20 percent from the high of 2007 to January and then bounced.
And it was in September that it fell again through that 20 percent level is when people start to lose money.
That's when what everyone remembers is the crash.
So in other words, we're in Bear Stearns territory now.
The real crash is still coming.
Well, I think it's started.
So the market, if I go back to 2008, the problem in the market was these mortgage-backed securities that these banks had.
They're worth zero, but they were marking them up in value.
But they couldn't sell them.
So they're actually worth zero.
And this was publicly known.
People could have found this out.
In fact, I remember you tell me you read people talking about it.
I can't remember their names.
Yeah.
That's my famous anecdote from the summer of 2008.
I love the Mises guys, but especially at that time, I was reading LewRockwell.com more often.
And cranky old Gary North was looking at M1, M2, M3, and whatever the hell, and saying, everyone run!
The money supply is shrinking.
The bad debts are being called in.
The stock market is going to completely cease to exist in a matter of weeks.
And then he was absolutely right.
That was in August of 2008.
People can check his archives, Austrian school guy.
And it was four weeks later that the bottom fell out of the entire thing.
Yeah.
So, there was him, and I read an article in January where someone was laying out all the bank balance sheets and so forth.
But none of that stuff mattered until that September happened, and then the market fell over 20%, and then all these things started to blow up and became history.
Well now, there has been a bubble for years that's grown and grown and grown.
That's the government debt bubble and bond bubble of corporations borrowing money.
And they lowered rates and did all these QE programs over the years, and interest rates hit a historic low two weeks ago.
The 10-year Treasury bond went to 0.666 two Fridays ago.
By the way, I'm sorry, I keep interrupting you, but I'm so ignorant about this stuff, man.
This is the Fed lowering it, or this is one of the rates that sort of sets itself?
Okay, the 10-year bond is set by itself.
But what's going on is, by making rates zero, or they're zero now, but making rates so low over the years, and doing these QE programs, they've flooded the system with liquidity and lowered the rates, other rates have dropped.
So the 10-year bond went to a record low the other week, and junk bonds got down to a triple-B junk bond, which is low-grade or mid-grade debt.
It got down to less than 3% yield a few weeks ago.
What's going on is, these markets have started to fall apart and go down.
And this is, I believe, the subprime of 2008, and it doesn't threaten, the banks aren't the biggest threat to the system.
I'll just lay out the big problem in the markets, and that is that right now, most people invest in stocks through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds, and then they invest in bond funds as a safe haven.
And these bond funds own all these bonds that are now either falling in value, or they have values that they cannot be sold at.
So the way this is a problem is, there's these exchange-traded funds, such as BND is one that's really popular, LQD is another one, in which the net asset value of these funds is falling, excuse me, the value of the funds are falling, and the net asset value is staying the same because the bonds, the holdings aren't being sold or marked down.
It may sound a little confusing, but to make a long story short, it's similar, I'm not saying these bonds are worth zero, but this is a big problem inside the financial markets.
And what we're seeing when everything is declining, gold, commodities, stocks, everything, altogether, and I'm not saying that's going to continue for a long time, but it's what is going on now, that means that there is a debt deflation happening.
People are raising money for cash, they're trying to get out of everything, and the selling is kind of building on itself.
And this is something that, it did happen in 2008, maybe for three months, but it's started to happen now, last week, and I have no way to predict if it's going to end in a month, or six months, or whatever, but it's a very negative thing for the economy.
Moser.
I'll tell you what, back in 2008, everyone wasn't locking themselves inside and staying home from every job in the country, deliberately.
Is there even any way to begin to measure how much wealth is no longer being created this week, compared to three weeks ago, around here?
Well, that's the thing.
I wrote this and said this in some other interviews, but I believe this year, 2020, is going to end up being a historic year, more historic than 9-11, when people look back on it 50 years from now.
Something like 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall, or 1929, a year that our society, and I don't know where it's going, but everything is kind of changing.
Yeah, I think that's right, man.
This is something we have not seen.
This is like September 11th, if they kept attacking for weeks and weeks and weeks, and they hit LA and Miami and Chicago and St. Louis and Houston, and nobody knew when it was going to end, and it just kept coming and coming and coming.
That's essentially the equivalent.
With the economy stuff, I think we've got three things happening, the virus situation, the financial markets imploding, and I think this is basically the bubble implosion many people have been warning about for years.
At the same time, the economy is going, we don't know yet how bad it is, but I looked locally, where I live, in 2008, the peak of unemployment was 15% in the county I live in, and now all the teachers have been laid off, a factory that employs 1,500 people and a population of 100,000 is shut, all the restaurants and bars are closed.
I mean, we've got to be close to 20% employment.
That's depression level unemployment, and this has happened across the country.
I'm not a virus expert, but I've sent two links.
One is a federal government planning document that was released on March the 13th, sent out to the various bureaucracies of the federal government at all levels, and leaked to the New York Times, and it's not easy reading.
I mean, it's federal bureau speak, but one thing in there is it talks about this being an 18-month crisis.
That doesn't mean the country's going to be shut down for 18 months, but that this pandemic isn't going to go away, by their estimates, in 18 months.
This is what the government's doing.
You can read it and see everything they're planning, and the other thing is a document that supposedly was sent to the Boris Johnson administration and then to Trump with projections on all this stuff, which is easy to read, very explanatory.
What are the actual risks on a personal basis?
If people want facts, read that, not listen to my memory of it, but the bottom line is that this is going to go on, and this lockdown that we're under, it should be lifted by July, I would think, at the latest.
That's kind of what Trump himself has said, but I don't know what happens after that, what degree of measures get taken or what, but it does seem certain that the whole economy is being thrown into depressionary conditions, at least for the next 90 days, and who knows when it will actually recover, and on top of that, that has created what I thought would happen one day, regardless, in the future, it's making it happen now, and that's the financial market implosion and this debt crisis.
I got another resource for that, that's a book called Big Debt Crises that takes a historic look at every time this has happened in any other country, including the United States, in the 1930s, although this isn't, you can't really make direct comparisons, like it's all not exactly the same, but if you look at all the examples in aggregate, the stock market should drop around 50%, and when that's over, or maybe before the stock market bottoms, gold will come alive and lead, and we're having some sort of deflationary thing right now, but when it ends, the Federal Reserve is going to just print, print, print, print, and they're already doing it, starting to, and it's going to have really inflationary effects at some point.
Gardner Miller And maybe not just huge bubbles in certain sectors, but maybe widespread price inflation across the board, huh?
Niu Yeah, that's what I believe is coming.
But the timing of that, when that's going to actually start, the timing isn't five years from now, it's within months or a year.
So this is kind of what we're facing, and I just kind of, I get lots of, I think that at this moment, people are in a state of shock about the virus situation.
Where I live, people panicked, went to the grocery store, bought all the toilet paper up and all this kind of stuff.
But you could have known it was a bad situation a month ago of some sorts.
And I think the situation in the markets is the same, that people really aren't panicking yet.
I mean, you see selling, but selling doesn't translate into the regular person selling.
And the market is trading in a way that no one in it has ever seen before.
It fell from that high that it made without any single bounce and fell at a faster rate than it did even during the 1929 crash.
So that's how amazing the decline is.
And the only thing I can compare it to isn't, well, the US market had a bear market in 38, in which it fell like this, 50%.
That was the second bust, so to speak, when Roosevelt was president.
And it fell straight down for like four months.
Other markets have done this outside the United States in the past 10 years.
It happened in Turkey two years ago.
It happened in Russia several years ago.
Well, and you know how FDR prevented a revolution with all that unemployment was he conscripted 16 million men and sent them off to fight in Europe.
Well, eventually that's exactly what happened.
And you know, they say, I mean, the way I learned the history is certainly in government school, the way they taught it was like, hey, his interventions really did save capitalism because America might have been overthrown and turned into a fascist or a communist dictatorship if he hadn't have taken the interventions that he took at the time.
Now, I know David Stockman would laugh his ass off and says that the depression was already over before stupid Roosevelt was even sworn in and started ruining everything even worse.
But that's certainly the idea that, boy, you live in a society where 20% of people don't have a job.
That is an unstable society, man.
And nobody knows what's going to happen from that, especially if it's a prolonged situation like this might be here.
Well, Stockman's correct in the sense that the market and the economy, everything did bottom out about six months before Roosevelt got in office.
So, but that didn't mean, but, you know, it didn't pick up and boom, obviously.
Oh yeah.
Not that the depression was over, but that all the bad debts had been cleared and it was beginning, it was on its way back up again before a dummy came and ruined everything worse.
Which sounds right to me since he was a president, you know.
Sure.
But, you know, it just, personally, I don't know, you know, even if some, I'm not, you know, as I told you earlier, I'm not making a big profit off this personally, but even if I was, I think everyone has to feel uneasy in our country with everything that's going on now.
I mean, I almost feel like going into hiding for a year and then popping back out or something.
Well, you know what?
You're one of the few, maybe who has the ability to even do that.
Most people can't do a thing.
You know, they don't know what they're going to do.
I saw Trump said today, nobody has to bother paying their mortgage for a couple of months.
Thank God for that.
But, and for the renters too, I hope landlords give their renters a break.
But this is like, man, we knew the bubble was going to pop.
The only question was when.
But this is just, you know, it's not popping.
It's washing it all the way down the drain, you know?
Well, that's maybe a problem with how this is going to play out is that the, this virus thing kind of can become the perfect scapegoat.
So Democrats can blame Trump for not doing enough to stop it or something.
And Trump can blame it on China.
Whereas these economic impacts really wouldn't be as bad.
Well, you shut down the whole country.
That's bad, but still it's still what's going on.
The markets wouldn't be as bad without the bubble.
So for example, in 1918, 1919, when the Spanish flu hit the world, over 500,000 Americans died and the stock market actually went up 80%.
So it's possible for, you know, it's just simply blaming everything on the virus, I think is what people are going to do, but it's not reality.
The Federal Reserve and everything that's gone on, I believe, since the 1970s and the empire's been dependent on the Federal Reserve or wouldn't exist, I don't believe.
So it's a lot of stuff going on.
And I think people are going to be very confused and it's just going to be pretty crazy times.
Yeah, man.
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So let's say I had any money, what would you tell me to do with it?
Well, if I had money right now, I would sit on it, half of it, and I just put half of it in gold.
And what I would expect is at some point when the market starts to bottom out, or you see, let's say, commodities start to hold up while the market's still dropping, then I'd put the rest of it to work buying, say, energy stocks or just things that pay dividends.
Because when the stock market does start dropping, and I'm not sure when that's going to happen, but stocks will come alive.
But gold, I think, is still important.
Even though it's come down, it's falling less than the stock market is doing.
And when the stock market has up days, it tends to go up a little bit more.
And when everything bottoms out, I just expect it to go completely crazy, because it'll benefit from inflation and whatever.
But it's suffering now from what is a mass liquidation.
But most Americans have been caught ...
Well, if I have any cash, I take it out of the bank and put it under my mattress?
Or should I just leave it in the bank?
Well, I'm just leaving mine in the bank.
Well, you've got more than you can fit in your mattress.
I don't.
But I wonder if the banks are going to be in trouble, too.
The way to limit that risk, first of all, all bank deposits are insured.
I think it's $250,000, maybe $100,000.
So, if the bank went under, you would get FDIC insurance for it.
People don't know it, but stock brokerage accounts are only insured up to $500,000.
So, say someone's got $10 million sitting in a brokerage account, in theory, the broker could go under, and they could only have $500,000 left.
So, I don't think people aren't going to be at risk of losing all their bank deposits.
I saw this thing on CNN.
They go, don't get your money out of the bank.
And I was like, I think I better get my money out of the bank.
But there might be other reasons to do it.
And it's not so much the bank's failing, but what if you can't even go to the bank because they shut down because of a stupid virus?
That's a reason to have some cash.
Another reason not to have it all in your house, though, is if everyone thinks everyone's hoarding, people are going to rob you.
Well, everybody listening, you need to know that I'm broke as a joke, and every dime I get from this guy goes straight to the rent.
So, don't bother robbing me, man.
I ain't got nothing but a couple of cans of ravioli over here.
What do you think this will do to the American empire, all the things overseas?
Well, I don't know.
I mean, the obvious thing would be to call off the whole goddamn project immediately.
And the idea that America's supposed to be the global military hegemon of the old world.
Have you ever seen a map of the world?
The whole thing was stupid and crazy all along, of course.
And in the face of this, I mean, I think this, as you said, this changes everything.
This is 1929.
This is 1939.
This is, you know, when this is over, the entire world is going to be a different place in all kinds of different ways, predictable and unpredictable.
But it just seems like the obvious thing is, if the Germans want to defend their people, they can tax them and raise their own damn army.
Why are our troops in Germany right now?
Not that I want them here on my streets, but I want them home at Fort Bliss, not wasting all this money, you know?
And same thing for all throughout the Middle East and building up and threatening around China and all of this.
Everybody's got their own problems.
It's just crazy to think that we would keep this up and spending, you know, if you account the care and feeding of the nukes and the VA and everything, we're spending a trillion dollars a year on this project.
So just, is there any argument that, boy, you know, I know that the coronavirus is bad and I know that we're right now deliberately, in a sense, entering into a Great Depression, but still, I just can't stand not killing Iraqis.
We got to keep killing Iraqis, no matter what, right?
Or else what'll happen?
You know, they might attack us again.
Yeah, there's a book I just read.
That was a joke, by the way, for the ignorant.
I know good and well Iraq never even threatened to do anything to us, ever, not once.
But anyway, go ahead.
Oh, there's a real good book that just came out.
I just read it by Andrew Bacevich, The Age of Illusions, How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory.
And his argument is that he's examining the period of time between the fall of the Berlin Wall and really the election of Trump and positing that it's really a time of continuity that once the Berlin Wall fell, they created a new sort of consensus to maintain the empire, one based around, sort of, he doesn't quite say this, but I'll say it, explain it this way, a belief in the stock market, the financial markets, is the way I would put it, but also that the country is the sole superpower around the world and that some sort of individualism is our culture.
Those are the three pillars of what he says is a Cold War consensus.
But if you look at it and think of Trump, he, in every successive president, they've kind of maintained, if you just take the topic of empire, all that together and made it so, today's, the drones of Obama and the bombing that Trump has done in Afghanistan, different places, all that really started with the first Iraq War and then completely sort of ignored and accepted with Clinton.
So this culture of ignoring and accepting the wars and the bombings and remote control stuff going on, that really started with Bill Clinton, not Obama, not Trump.
And yeah, the Clinton-Greenspan administration, right, where he created so much new money that they were able to squander the entire peace dividend but make it seem free.
Even though Bill Clinton was expanding America's military footprint across the planet for eight years straight, people thought, oh, economy's doing great.
Relatively speaking, my taxes have not gone up compared to my wages, so what the hell do I care?
So if I take that sort of argument, then everyone has been obsessed with the Trump election and Trump and this and that.
In the event before that, everyone got obsessed with 9-11.
In the future, I think people could look back and those two events will be fairly meaningless.
And now, this is the year in which the consensus that Bacevich talks about, I believe, is going to unravel.
And I think the process really started Sunday.
So on Sunday, I was watching 9-11 with my mom, actually, waiting for Trump to, or actually waiting for Vice President Pence to give a coronavirus update at 5 o'clock.
And by surprise, Trump appeared first and announced that the Federal Reserve was lowering interest rates to zero and doing a new quantitative easing program.
And I was shocked, because never before had I seen the Federal Reserve do something like that over the weekend.
And they were going to have a meeting this week on Wednesday.
So this was really strange.
And I immediately called a friend of mine that is on the board of directors.
Well, I read in more detail what is going on.
And one of the things they were also doing was lowering the reserve requirements for banks to zero.
So every bank has to have some deposits.
Whoa, really?
Oh, my God.
In fact, that was one of the things Trump said was, don't worry, our banks have really high reserves right now.
We're all good.
Yeah, yeah.
So they did that on Sunday.
Oh, my God, dude.
So I immediately called a friend of mine that's on a board of directors of a bank.
And I said, he didn't know the news.
I said, look, you see, they just lowered rates to zero.
And I was going on and on about it.
And then I said, let me ask you a question.
I know this isn't 2008.
I know real estate isn't crashing.
I know banks don't have these stupid mortgages.
But why would the Federal Reserve lower the reserve requirements to zero?
And he just said, it means the banks are distressed.
You know, they got debts on them that are distressed debts are going to be.
And obviously, what they're doing to the economy, that's going to be the case.
So but to me, that was a historic moment, because what also happened was that the stock market, the next day on Monday, had the biggest drop on a percentage basis since 1987.
In other words, it didn't do any good, that drastic measure and announcement.
No.
So in my lifetime, the stock market would go up on something like that.
So now it goes down.
And the market, the way it's trading, it kind of had it'll have an up day, then it'll go down.
I just think it's dead, you know, until it really bottoms.
And I don't know when that is.
It could be months, it could be next year.
It doesn't mean it has to fall every week.
But I just don't know, you know, when it's going to win the bear.
It's a bear market.
I don't know when it's going to come to an end.
But to me, that event, the Federal Reserve doing that, the response, the markets, and it wasn't just the stock market.
The bonds fell in value, too.
To me, that's the end of the system of when Trump took the US dollar off of the Bretton Woods system in the 70s.
And we've had this regime of the dollar being the reserve currency of the world.
It still is.
But this is the end.
You call them Trump.
I know they all look alike.
Did I say Trump?
I think so.
Anyway.
Oh, goodness.
I mix them all up, too.
They're all the same.
It's true.
If it had been President Trump in 1971, he would have taken us off the gold standard then, just like Nixon did.
Yeah.
But this is the end of, you know, what we've been living through.
Okay, so after...
I don't know where it's going, though.
After 08, people were saying, okay, so the bubble now is not in housing.
The bubble now is in bonds themselves.
But bonds, that means the government promises to pay the holders with the tax money they steal from the rest of us next year, right?
So if the bond market is falling apart, is that the same thing as saying that confidence in the dollar itself is being lost?
Not yet, because people are scrambling, you know, for dollars to get cash reserves, to be able to pay debts and so forth.
But with bonds, maybe this is a good way, maybe I can explain it better this way.
Let's say you had $10,000, okay?
That sounds about right.
On a good day, maybe?
Let's just say you got 10 grand, you want to put it in something safe.
Now, a 10-year bond right now is paying, well, 1.12%.
A week ago, it was paying at the low, like, 0.666%.
But anyway, if you buy a 10-year bond, you're only getting 1% a year.
That's not any money, and it's most likely going to be less than inflation.
So it's a stupid investment.
Maybe it was a good investment at 3% or 4%, but at 1%, it makes no sense for a human being, for a person to buy it.
And what's going on is that the Federal Reserve is now announcing these quantitative easing programs to buy bonds themselves.
So they're starting to print money to buy Treasury bonds because they're no longer valid investments.
There's not enough real people buying them.
So that's how this is really going to play out.
They're propping up the prices of the Treasury bond market with their own buying, and they may be able to main, you know, do that forever.
But at some point, them doing that is going to create huge inflation and make the dollar go down in value, probably when this process of everyone liquidating things, including gold, to raise cash ends.
That's when the inflation will start.
But I don't know.
I have no idea.
Is that next month?
Is that three months from now?
Is that the sign that it's near an end?
That will be when the stock market drops a week and gold goes up.
That'll be a sign that we're near the end of this mass liquidation phase.
Man.
All right.
I don't know what else to ask you.
Tell me some more stuff.
Well, I mean, I need to know.
Well, that's the main thing.
It's the important thing is to understand what's happening and just be, you know, as far as the stock market goes, just be real patient if you're thinking of buying it.
And if you need money, if you're someone who needs money and has money in these markets, maybe it's best just to sell and not worry about, you know, if it can go back up or something.
By the way, wherever the market is now is equivalent to when Trump took office.
I think that's what I read.
Every bit of the gain since he was sworn in has now been erased.
Is that right?
Probably.
Or it's very close to it.
But though also, in other words, I mean, if you have a lot of money in the market, you just lost a lot on paper.
But then again, you have the same amount of money that you had in 2017.
Go ahead and sell now is better than waiting.
That makes sense.
If it's just going to keep dropping and dropping.
Sure.
And also, when is it going to get back up to the high?
I mean, it took several years to do it last time.
Right.
And even after the 99 crash, when they kept the housing bubble going full scale and started printing money immediately to prop up the stock market and all that, still took another couple of years at least to catch back up to 99, 2000 levels, right?
Yeah, it did.
Almost six or seven in these bear markets.
In other markets, outside the US stock market, every all these other bear markets have been huge and taken much longer than you would think.
Russia, for example, had a huge one, but oil had won in 2014 and sold it in gold, topped out silver in 2011 and fell for almost five years.
That's a long time.
So things can fall for a longer amount of time and larger than you would at first think.
So it's best just to be patient to not just simply see something go up for a day, but you go up and then go down and make a higher high and show that the trend has really changed and it's going to take a long time for that to happen.
But I don't know.
And also, it's hard to predict when the economy is this crisis that's being created with this virus thing is going to actually end.
I'm not really sure.
Well, I'm pretty sure that you're going to be one of the first to know.
So I'm going to keep my eyes on Wall Street window and I hope the audience will too.
And I don't know what to say to you, Mike.
I said, thank you so much, bud.
Well, thank you.
Hopefully one day I'll have more positive, uplifting message for people.
Oh yeah.
Hopefully someday soon.
Thanks again, bud.
