Wall is the improvement of investment climates by other means clouds of it's for dummies The Scott Horton show taking out Saddam Hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal.
They hate our freedoms We're dealing with Hitler revisited we couldn't wait for that cold war to be over quickly So we can go and play with our toys in the sand go and play with our toys in the sand No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare Today I authorized the Armed Forces of the United States in military action in Libya That action has now begun when the president doesn't that means that it is not illegal All right, you guys introducing the great tree to Parsi he is the founder of the National Iranian American Council He is a professor at Georgetown University and he's the author of a few books.
The latest is losing an enemy About the Iran nuclear deal so much for that But you gotta read treacherous Alliance man.
Oh man that book treacherous Alliance.
I'll tell you what welcome back to the show How are you doing Trita?
Thank you so much for having me Happy to have you here.
So big doings.
I Keep telling everyone.
I'm not that alarmed.
I'm just not feeling I just don't think there are enough factions Who support an attack on Iran?
Right now I'm compared to 2002 and 3 and there's just nothing to fight about except for the fact that America's picking this fight We're waging this brutal economic war Against Iran perhaps you can help enlighten us on The degrees in comparison between the crippling sanctions of the Obama years preceding the nuclear deal versus how it is now, but It seems like the u.s.
Is really pushing Iran up against the wall right now yeah, no, it is worse now because The amount of oil for instance that the Iranians can sell is less than what they could before but it's also psychological factor You know back then people really didn't have much Expectation or hope but because of the nuclear deal Expectations and hope really started to rise so they had an expectation of being in a good place now instead They're in a place that is worse than what it was before the nuclear deal was struck So that is a big psychological blow to the population Yeah, and so in fact just talk about that part of it because that's the most important part of it that always gets subsumed Just like with all history all we ever learn about is presidents and wars But what about the people who are caught in the middle here?
What are the crippling sanctions mean for the people of Persia?it means that They have a tremendous amount of difficulty making ends meet it means that Their hope of being able to have a future in which the United States and Iran Actually would be able to be on at least decent terms is more or less crushed now But it's not because of what the regime did it's what because of what the u.s.
Did and this is important because you have an entire generation now They were not there when Mossadegh was over for overthrown.
They were not there when the revolution happened They were not there during the Iraq-Iran war their first formative experience with the United States is The United States reneging on a deal that it had signed You know, there was a great piece I don't know if you saw it in fairness and accuracy and reporting It's kind of a side point, but it's so important about the media coverage of just that well America withdrew from the deal But the idea that the Iranians might enrich some uranium up to 20% still far short of weapons grade in order to make a statement, which is actually allowed in the deal if One if part of the other side reneges on the thing which they admitted in Haaretz But they say oh that would be Iran breaking the deal sabotaging the deal and Violating its terms and all of these things in the worst way where America just you know Forgot about it walked away from whatever whatever however They phrase it to always give it a euphemism and make it sound like it's perfectly legit For Donald Trump to break this perfectly good deal for no good reason and pick this fight, but for them to respond in any way We get to sit here and say how dare you break the deal that we already left Exactly.
Exactly.
No, I mean it is I mean irony has become an obsolete word at this point seriously Hang on just one second for me.
Hey guys, you know You probably need a new website a lot of people do what you need to do Then is go to expand designs Comm the great Harley Abbott and his team over at expand designs comm they'll hook you up with a great new website for 2019 and in fact what you really should do is type in expand designs comm Scott and you'll save $500 Alright, so now we almost had a war last Thursday.
It seems like and people are disputing exactly how close we were to airstrikes But you know what?
Before that New York Times story hit I had a tip that hey, we're about to attack Iran They're gonna hit the radar station and some Sam's and things like this And then I believe that the Tucker Carlson show with featuring Colonel Douglas McGregor actually stopped the war On Thursday night.
It's a correlation without exact proof of causation, but it sure seems like a probable explanation I wasn't the only one who thought so But that's how close I can tell you I can't go into the details but I can tell you that from what I saw as this whole thing was played out and I got phone calls from Contacts in Congress telling me this is about to happen.
And then I was in touch with some of the folks that you mentioned What has been reported is very much driving with what I saw happening Yeah that they really were about to attack and Trump called it off at the last second you mean because of Tucker Yeah, because of Tucker.
Yeah, and you know what?
So let's talk about that a little bit because here's what's special about Tucker He was a hawk on a rack, but he clearly regretted it and learned his lesson He's one of the only people in on that level of TV media Who you know has had a sincere change of heart on it and you can tell what's the key to it?
And this comes up when he talks with McGregor all the time The key to it is he understands the difference between Sunni and Shia So the Israel lobby and all of the Hawks say Oh radical Islam radical Islam and Tucker goes Would she whiz Colonel McGregor it meant the case that Iran hates al-qaeda and Isis?
And they're the ones who are actually the enemies of the American people in any way Whereas Iran and their allies haven't really done anything to us and McGregor says that's right Tucker And that's the conversation that never happens with any other host or any other guest in any other place We have this massive sectarian war led of course by not that they're fighting over religion but it's you know Riyadh versus Tehran over there and who's on whose side and Tucker is interested enough to know the difference at all and that's enough to make the difference on what whether He's gonna support war against Iran and their allies essentially And I think that's definitely a big part of it but I also think that it's because of the fact of seeing how war has totally devastated the United States itself and that the Values of freedoms liberty etc is being infringed upon the more the United States turns into an empire The more it is involved militarily all over the world.
All of those national security concerns do not stop At the border they come into the United States and suddenly we have a police state I'm not saying that's where we are right now, but I think those are also very valid concerns that people like Tucker and others on the conservative side have And also a sense that you know at the end of the day It's not that Tucker I think would like to be on the Iranian side of this I think he says I don't understand why the United States should be involved in this at all We don't have a dog in this fight, right?
Yeah, I mean There's I don't think anyone's saying we should ally with Iran and the Shiites Pope for God's sakes We're here back in jihadis against them in places like Syria and Yemen and and no that ain't right I don't care how much you hate the Ayatollah.
You can't hate him more than Ayman al-Zawahiri the butcher of New York City You know, it would seem like that's not even my opinion that's Scientific fact or something if you're an American And you have to choose between those two.
Who do you hate more?
Not who do you want to support but just who do you oppose more?
It's kind of a black and white sort of an issue when you put it that way in it But not if you work for the CIA or the Obama administration or the Trump administration for that matter see our current Yemen policy Anyway, so Let's talk about the Iranian side of this You and Elijah Magnier and Bernard over at moon of Alabama and some others who I really respect and I know are all Very biased against violent conflict here are saying that you know what?
It may well have been the Iranians who bombed one or two or more of the ships here in the last six weeks You want to talk about that?
Yeah, I mean I personally think that it's very plausible that it could have been done I think there's some important question marks as to how you know how it would make sense for them to do this against the Japanese tanker at a moment when the Japanese Prime Minister is in Iran first time in 40 years meeting with a supreme leader So there's there's question marks about it But I think the more important point is some more solid evidence needs to be put forward mindful of the fact that John Bolton has a very long history as a Serial fabricator of intelligence in order to get war.
This is not an administration with credibility This is not a national security advisor that has any Credibility and you also have several countries in the region who would love to get the United States and Iran into war with each other So we have to have our guards up.
That doesn't mean that Iran is exonerated It could very well have been them But we need to have a high standard of evidence here in order to avoid getting tricked into a war.
Mm-hmm Well, it's interesting because you know, that's the obvious point everyone should be Considering is who all might have done it who have an incentive to do something like that on all the different sides here and I guess what Elijah Magnier is saying is that this wasn't to False flag to start a war This was the signal by the Iranians that you better not start a war because look how much we can cost you for pennies on the dollar and We are masters of this asymmetric game and this is just step point one and we can you know Take out these ships cripple these ships do it in a deniable way Not really kill anybody.
They could have killed some people but they didn't But do it in a way where it's not enough to start a war But it's enough to show that they're ready for war if it really comes to it as a warning to Trump What do you think about that?
I?
Think it is a plausible explanation of what could have happened At the same time.
I think there are other explanations that could shine some light on the situation one of them being that so far the strategy of Maximum pressure has been extremely costly to Iran, but it has had essentially no cost to the United States Yeah, and it's not until the Iranians start to counter escalate that you actually see Some form of a cost being inflicted on Trump and particularly if this is then dragged to the point in which Trump has to make a decision as to whether he actually wants to go to war or not at that point Not only is it a very costly scenario for the United States?but also it maximizes the tensions between Trump and Bolton and could potentially lead to Bolton's fire in which I think the Iranians would see as Necessary step in order for them to even entertain any negotiations with the Trump administration in addition, it's Raises the cost for the Europeans to just sit there and talk nicely about the JCPOA, but do absolutely nothing Concretely that could make sure that the JCPOA would survive So there's several different explanations that could explain why the Iranians would want to do this But as I put out in my piece in NBC they could achieve almost all of these things by just simply starting to Escalate some of their nuclear activities.
They would not have to go and do you know an attack on a Tanker because that carries a lot of other types of risk and a significant downside Compared to what they would be doing on the neutral side.
So again, there's good Explanation as to why they did the good explanation as to why they may not have been them and also why it may have been Some others particularly those who actually have a very clear interest in dragging the United States into another war Mm-hmm.
And by the way, you mentioned the EU there What is the status of the so-called special purpose vehicle loophole for continuing trade between Iran and Europe?
Is that all falling through?
It's not Entirely operational at this point But the bigger problem is that if the Europeans are only going to be engaging in trade that Trump hasn't yet Sanctioned then it's actually quite meaningless because what really actually would be of importance is for them to continue to buy Iranian oil as they were prior to these sanctions.
That's what makes a difference And you know, the Iranians are in a bizarre situation right now, which they are under more sanctions Now when they're abiding by a nuclear agreement and they were back a couple of years ago when they were accused of having violated one Yeah Well, and I know for you and for me and listeners this show who know better It's the most frustrating thing to see Trump say, you know, all they have to do is renounce nuclear weapons He said on Saturday the u.s.
Would be Iran's best friend.
If only they would renounce nuclear weapons Trita Yeah, it's that simple I mean they signed the NPT in 72, right I Even earlier than that and they have they've been living up to the nuclear agreement and They have honored their words where whereas unfortunately the United States is not No, and you know, this is a real important thing too.
And we talked about this back in the time When they were negotiating the nuclear treaty, but essentially the JCPOA is superfluous they've been members of the non-proliferation treaty this whole time and the IAEA had Verified continued to verify the non-diversion of nuclear material to any military or other special purpose on team million times That whole time since they began their nuclear project at the beginning of the century and So really all the JCPOA was meant to do was to put unjustified fears At bay, you know to allay those to say listen if you think that NPT isn't good enough Try this and a whole other layer and really when you look at the deal, what is it?
It's all this stuff essentially to get them to adopt an additional protocol to their safeguards agreement and a couple of subsidiary Arrangements which could have been negotiated just as one-offs as no big deals all along In fact, they were abiding by the additional protocol while they were Negotiating with the Europeans in the bush years there for a long time And so this whole thing even if they left the JCPOA that wouldn't mean that they left Started making nukes, you know Yeah, but there's a big difference though because as a result of the JCPOA the United States for the first time comes in and essentially Accepts that Iran will continue to have enrichment on its soil And of course the US position of denying Iran that was never really grounded in any proper international law But through the JCPOA the United States gave up on that that position now, of course with Trump It seems like it may have returned to that position And that is in and of itself a highly problematic Think mindful of the fact that few countries are going to be trusting the United States if one Administration does not honor the signature of the previous administration.
Yeah, well, we see all the time I mean the case of Bush finally allowing Qaddafi to come back in from the cold only To have Barack Obama stab him in the back has got to be the biggest lesson in the world for any country You know that Has the Americans coming after him and John Bolton tried to ruin the North Korea deal by saying?
Yeah, we're looking doing on things on the Libya model there.
I mean, come on You know as though Kim couldn't have thought of that himself.
He needs to be reminded by Bolton Yeah, go ahead and make yourself helpless and see what happens So, what do we do now, well, I think at this point frankly unless Trump fires Bolton.
I think we're going to continue to be in this scenario in which every week or so there will be a crisis I think the only way out frankly for Trump right now is to get a different team a team That agrees with what he at least is saying is his position, which is that he wants to have negotiations You know, he is surrounded right now by people who want war people who have never Pursued diplomacy with Iran never supported diplomacy with Iran never even spoken to an Iranian Diplomat so the idea that this team would be able to come up with a diplomatic strategy Is quite laughable.
So if Trump truly wants to have those negotiations Then you know what he needs to do is to surround him with people that will enable him to Enable him to actually actualize that objective Yeah, I mean the Prime Minister of Japan went there to say hey Trump wants to talk with you and the Ayatollah told Abe Forget it.
There's no point in talking to this guy Why would I try to make a deal with a guy like this who never mind one president betraying the last president's obligations?
But you can't trust this guy from Sun up to Sun down So, you know he would have to see some real incentives it seems like to want to negotiate with Trump who is you know acted as though he is willing to go to war over essentially nothing One of the things that I thought was interesting with what?
Harmony was saying that he he wasn't entirely ruling out negotiations, but he was ruling it out under the circumstances That currently exists, you know with Trump being surrounded with that team it pursuing, you know maximum pressure and sanctions But he hasn't entirely closed the door I don't know if Trump picked up on that in any way shape or form but so far he hasn't acted as if he has Yeah All right.
Well, thanks very much treat apartheid everybody founder of NIAC That's National Iranian American Council teacher at Georgetown and author of losing an enemy.
Thanks, Trita All right, y'all thanks find me at Libertarian Institute org at Scott Horton org anti-war.com and reddit.com Slash Scott Horton show.
Oh, yeah, and read my book fools errand timed and the war in Afghanistan at fools errand dot US
