Sorry, I'm late.
I had to stop by the wax museum again and give the finger to FDR We know al-qaeda Zawahiri is supporting the opposition in Syria are we supporting al-qaeda in Syria It's a proud day for America and by God we've kicked Vietnam syndrome once and for all thank you It's been These witnesses are trying to simply deny things that just about everybody else except as a fact He came, he saw, he died.
We ain't killing they army, but we killing them We be on CNN like say our name, been saying, say it three times The meeting of the largest armies in the history of the world, then there's going to be an invasion All right, you guys, introducing Peter Ford, he is a Middle East expert and former British ambassador to Syria and Bahrain, and now he works with the UN on refugee issues Here he is with a very important piece at Loblog, the great Jim Loeb's blog, Loblog It's called, is the global coalition the new Baghdad pact, and then also, I don't know if there's a name for this Global coalition, the new Baghdad pact, and then also, I don't know if this was posted anywhere Someone just sent me this, an update from Peter Ford, former British ambassador to Syria from June 4th All about the Idlib province, so we're gonna be talking about both of those things.
Welcome back to the show.
How are you doing Peter?
Thank you very much for having me back, Scott Very happy to have you here.
I love reading your stuff I don't know where to begin or end with the questions today I guess, can we start with Idlib?
You wrote this kind of intelligence brief that I think, someone just forwarded me the email here I'm not sure if it was supposed to be public or what, but This is from June the 4th about the Idlib province, and it begins that what's happening there now is only the very beginnings of an assault by the Syrian state and an attempt to retake Idlib province, just nipping at the very southern edges of what is essentially the Al-Nusra Front caliphate there in Northwestern Syria, right?
Exactly, I think the strategy of the Syrians and the Russians is Incremental It would be too big an operation for them to handle to mount a full-scale invasion The number of jihadi fighters is quite amazing in that intelligence assessment, which has, with my permission, gone public by the way I think I estimated there were about 50,000, but I've since heard reliable information that the figure is closer to 70 or 80 thousand That is a huge army of jihadis, and they are armed to the teeth They've recently been receiving U.S. weapons like TOW anti-tank missiles via Turkey Their salaries are paid for out of the bottomless pockets of the Gulf state of Qatar Which is a big Al-Qaeda supporter So that's quite a big chunk to bite off at one go.
This is why I'm Unsure that the, and I have this from reliable sources, that the Syrians are going to approach this bit by bit, but they have in fact advanced further than I expected I hear different estimates, but I believe they've probably advanced about 40 miles Okay, wow, so those are really high estimates.
Now, is that the Al-Nusra Front, otherwise known as HTS, or you're including any and all other so-called moderate rebels?
Are there any rebels that are really outside of the umbrella of the Al-Nusra Front?
A handful, a handful only.
Al-Nusra Al-Qaeda effectively control about 80% of the fighters in Idlib, and the the marginals are only nominally different.
Their ideology is exactly the same.
The only difference in fact is the paymaster Some of them are being paid by the Saudis, some are being paid by the Turks But they all have the same jihadi ideology.
And now, so they, do they control different areas of Idlib then?
Where you have Nusra here, and then is it Arar al-Sham and the others still too?
They kind of marble together I mean, they work very closely Sure, they always have Sometimes they fight together, but at the moment they're marbled together and they coordinate their fighting.
And now, when you talk about the Gulf states still funding them, is that in the same sense as back when that was simply plausible deniability for Obama and John Brennan's program here?
Or is the US trying at all to stop them from backing these guys?
Because officially Donald Trump at least called off CIA support for them But is the US turning a blind eye to our allies still funding them?
I have reliable information that the US at no point, at no point, has tried to dissuade the Gulf states from funding any of these jihadis.
The US itself has drawn back when videos have appeared of some of its pets beheading children Yeah, the US has drawn back, but at no point has it tried to put pressure on on Qatar to stop funding al-Nusra Wow, okay, so...
You don't hear it in the rhetoric at all They never even paid lip service to the idea that the United States should put pressure on countries that are funding an al-Qaeda affiliate.
It's unbelievable Yeah, I mean, I guess You know, it seemed like the Saudis focused much more of their attention in 2015.
They sort of turned toward Yemen, the near enemy Bin Laden might put it And I don't, I mean, that doesn't necessarily translate into cancelling all their intervention in Syria But it seemed like they dialed it back and after all the Islamic State blew up in the West's face so bad in seizing all of Western Iraq that then they had to destroy it again so that's left really only al-Nusra and then the Iranians, Hezbollah, the Syrian state and their Russian allies have all really worked to destroy the rest of the so-called rebellion everywhere except Idlib is the last space left in Syria, so I guess It sort of just seemed to me maybe that a lot of that support had been called off but It sounds like, yeah, no, you're saying the Turks are still financing them, too Absolutely, the Turks are not supplying the money That's Qatar's job.
They have bottomless pockets That country is amazingly rich and amazingly reckless And from the beginning, from the beginning of the insurgency Qatar singled out for support al-Nusra.
I've been in meetings myself with Qatari ministers where they've admitted it off the record there's no secret about this and al-Nusra has emerged as top dog and for this same reason Saudi has withdrawn quite a lot of its support because the jihadi groups, which it was supporting have largely been decimated by Russians and the Syrians and by al-Nusra There's been a lot of infighting in the jihadi ranks previously Previously So the Saudis are funding probably only about 10 percent of what's going on and the rest is Qatar with an assist from Turkey Hey guys, Scott here for Liberty Under Attack Publications Looking for a Liberty-focused publisher?
Liberty Under Attack publishes books and strategy guides for individuals looking to increase their personal freedom They assist authors through the entire publishing process, proofreading, editing, cover designs, paperback and kindle formatting and full audio book narration and post-production Tell them Scott sent you and get 20% off a full service deal to get some one-of-a-kind books or for more information visit libertyunderattack.com And then It's so hard to keep all this straight But is it the Qataris prefer Ra'ar al-Sham or that's the Saudis that prefer Ra'ar al-Sham to al-Nusra?
The Saudis prefer Ra'ar al-Sham Who's still?there's still a dog in in the fight Ra'ar al-Sham, but they have lost a lot of their people who've simply joined the HTS Qatari al-Sham and Nusra Branded militia group It's you know the many of these fighters come and go they hired guns Whoever pays the best salary often gets the best fighters It's kind of ironic that you know, there's all this hype where the UAE and Saudi ganged up on Qatar and Said that well, they're too close to Iran.
They have this shared natural gas field under the Persian Gulf That and so therefore because of business they have these political relations and All that kind of thing, but I guess Iran doesn't have that much influence with them Never mind the giant American air base in their country But the Iranians sure can't I don't know if they've even tried but they sure don't seem to have the ability To prevent them from continuing to back Assad's enemies in Idlib province That that's right, they're they're daggers drawn in fact, but what you have to bear in mind here is that For Saudi and Qatar this fight is mainly about them It's about their struggle for regional hegemony These are the two big kids on on on the block and they want to These are the two big kids on on on the block And they worry far more about each other than they do about israel or iran or russia or asset uh, so This explains Why uh in recent months the the uae?
No doubt with saudi Commission has reopened its embassy in damascus Bahrain has diplomats now in damascus, which would never happen without the the nod from Riyadh and and the one to watch The one to watch is possible rapprochement between assad and riyadh Yeah, well, I hope they hurry it up So let me ask you about the deal between Between the syrian kurds and the government in damascus at this point Uh, well that's marking time Uh, the the the kurds I guess like everybody else are confused about u.s intentions Trump blows hot and cold on Whether he's going to support to the hilt to the the kurds at the moment.
It looks like He's there for the the duration having announced that he was going to withdraw u.s troops Hardly, any of them have been withdrawn and it doesn't look like they're going to be withdrawn uh, so the um the kurds I think are are are in a wait-and-see mode that they're not going to Do the deal with damascus which I think in the end is inevitable But they're not going to do it as as long as they have um unlimited support especially uh air cover, uh from the u.s if asad put one soldier over the euphrates in the direction of the turdish forces uh, the u.s air force, uh would come to deal with that You're saying they're confident that the americans will keep the turks out As well as asad Well, I don't know about how confident but for the moment, uh, they're Confident that that's the way the wind is is blowing.
It seems like it would just make more sense I mean putting myself in their position, you know, they want to have their little independent rajava But just look at where they are in the world and and their enemy On their northern border there that absolutely will not stand for it It seems like it only makes sense for them to go ahead and Tell the americans.
Sorry, but we have to go ahead and make peace with asad here for the long term It's going to be his troops that keep turkey out not yours Right.
I mean, thanks, but no, thanks.
Go ahead and that would be the uh, the Farsighted, uh thing to do but the kurds have not always been well, uh led.
I mean this is Why they are the great losers always in middle east history they somehow always seem to bungle opportunities um, and if they leave it too late They'll get nothing.
Well, the americans drive a hard bargain too.
I guess the americans are telling them Keep us we'll stay here.
We'll keep the turks out And you just don't make peace with damascus And america is the 800-ton gorilla, right?
So what are they supposed to say to us?exactly the the u.s message to the kurds is Uh, we we're here indefinitely Our presence is absolutely open-ended The the kurds are um Taking that to to the bank and how many american troops are still in syrian kurdistan Uh, I haven't seen a recent estimate there were two thousand, uh, a few hundred Uh have probably left.
Uh, that that that's all but actually it's got it doesn't matter whether there are two thousand one thousand two hundred or twenty Uh, it it they are just a tripwire those forces they're there so that if uh, Assad was rash enough to send his forces across the euphrates into that territory then the u.s could say We have to defend our our forces.
So we're sending in the air force Hey y'all, here's the thing donate a hundred dollars to the scott horton show and you can get a qr code commodity disc As my gift to you It's a one ounce silver disc with a qr code on the back You take a picture of it with your phone and it gives you the instant spot price And lets you know what that silver that ounce of silver is worth on the market in federal reserve notes in real time It's the future of currency in the past two commodity discs dot com or just go to scotthorton.org slash donate And now well, I want to ask about the altanf base, too But now I keep shifting further east on the map, but I want to get back to idlib for a second here you importantly There's there's two more important points here in your your write-up about idlib to cover first of all you say that it's not true that everyone's trapped there and that in fact the turks could especially could facilitate a Corridor or what have you for civilians to flee before the worst fighting breaks out.
Is that right?
Uh, uh, exactly, uh, don't they have maps in the pentagon scott?
Uh, let's claim that that the people have nowhere to go or the fighters have nowhere to go utter Nonsense, there is a sliver of territory to the north of idlib, which is totally controlled by the turks and their allies Uh, if the jihadi fighters that are currently being supported by turkey had to run away This is the obvious place for them to run to There are already camps.
They're housing thousands of syrian civilians um and these jihadi fighters could Very simply rebadge and become part of the turkish.
Um, ally Militia, uh there this this in fact in many ways would be the best outcome I mean, I guess that makes sense, right if Give them a rifle, but also give them some discipline and just absorb them into the turkish state force I mean that really is the open question of what is supposed to happen with all of these armed nuts if If it's not just stand back and watch the russians carpet bomb them.
They got to go somewhere and we don't want them attacking concerts in england and Uh cartoonists in france or crashing planes into things in the usa and so now that the cia and all of america's allies have created this mess you say there's are as many i'm gonna I I really hope that this is a high estimate but as many as 70 or 80 thousand Of these, uh, you know essentially bin ladenite fighters in idlib province They got to go somewhere Uh, well they can go uh whence they came that did they they nearly all came in through turkey Some of them are native syrians Native to idlib and other provinces But many many of them came through turkey and there's no reason they shouldn't go back that way Go back to central asia.
Many of them came from central asia places like kazakhstan From china even there are several thousand Chinese muslims among these ranks of these jihadi fighters.
Let them go back and make trouble for china Well, i'm sure that's a big part of the plan I mean america used to train those uighurs in afghanistan back before the september 11th attacks So they always kind of have that in reserve and you know, you just look at this where?
You know the al-qaeda of the 90s was the blowback from americans and support and allied saudi and Etc support for the jihadists of the 80s and then After iraq you have especially all of these guys, you know come to you know surviving Jihadis of that era come to iraq to help lead the insurgency there And then they come home from iraq war two and they go to libya and to syria and to take the fight there And then i'd like to say inexplicably, but we all know what's going on here.
Um, america takes their side in syria Leading to a situation where you just told me with I presume a straight face on the other side of the audio line here That you think there might be as many as 70 or 80 thousand of these bin laden nights A whole new generation of these fighters and they come and go pretty quick.
I think a generation In their lifespan is about you know, 10 years instead of 20 But in much much the same way scott Isis emerged out of some of the sunni groups that were supported by the us in in iraq Right and so let's talk about that iraq war i'm calling it iraq war three and a half now the islamic state is over But you still have essentially isis or what we used to call al-qaeda and iraq fighters in western iraqi sunni stand And that war's really not going anywhere.
Is it?um it it morphed into a more of an insurgency than a war, uh, the Isis fighters have gone to ground.
Uh, they're not doing any kind of group actions, but there are isolated bombings assassinations raids this is the the pattern for the foreseeable future in both iraq and syria But it is not so serious that the local government couldn't take care of it I mean the iraqi and the syrian government If the us would just get off the case of syria And let the syrian army with some help from russia And iran deal with the the remnants of isis.
It would be problem solved But the syrian government is having to fight on so many fronts at the same time Well, although would it be problem solved when um You know essentially the the especially in western iraq They really have no security force The place was wide open for isis to take over in the first place because they'd already been forsaken by baghdad And the new shiite government there um and so You know, I was just reading a headline today where iraq they're just handing out death sentences for anybody accused of being allied with isis um, I read a story about the brutal mistreatment of prisoners where the shiite forces are avowedly saying That that's right.
We're adopting isis tactics.
You throw people off roofs.
We throw you off roofs you rape ladies We rape ladies you murder people we murder people and then and just you know Outright acting just like their enemies that they vanquished here And then there's also that gulf money again, right who backed the sunni insurgency during iraq war, too Our friends the saudis while they were suicide bombing americans Our saudis were backing them and that must be still the case to this day, right as prince bandar said we can't stand it this shia control baghdad and If as long as it takes we'll do whatever it takes To support the sunni insurgency against them there Exactly, exactly, uh scott.
Uh, the west is blundered into an ages old conflict between sunni and shia not only blundered into it, but but helped to make it 10 times worse by overthrowing the secular regime Of saddam and and then attempting to overthrow the secular regime of bashar al-assad, I think Us never saw a secular regime, but it didn't want to take down khaddafi was another That's true.
And in fact I mean, I don't know exactly how um Secular he was but uh, he wasn't exactly all that sectarian either Uh abdullah salah at least until america started arming him up enough to go and start attacking the houthis and losing but he had Really unified north and south and held it that way for 30 years So, I don't know if that exactly counts as secular, but I wouldn't wage a regime change there, but hillary clinton would Exactly exactly scott.
You're right Hang on just one second for me.
Hey guys, you know, you probably need a new website A lot of people do what you need to do then is go to expanddesigns.com The great harley abbott and his team over at expanddesigns.com They'll hook you up with a great new website for 2019 And in fact what you really should do is type in expanddesigns.com Scott and you'll save $500 Um, all right, so now talk about this baghdad pact And and this goes back I mentioned the al-tanf base there They're saying donald trump has said his people have told him.
Well, we have to stay in syria And in iraq not because of the remnants of the islamic state group Not because of al-qaeda, but because of iran as trump put it so we can watch iran closer Uh from there and so now you go back in history and refer to this baghdad pact Which I guess was about containing nasser.
Is that right?
But yeah, essentially, yeah, that's right and and uh, fascism and arab socialism And communism generally, but nasser was the seen as the fountain head of everything bad that was happening and was Considered a threat to the conservative regimes that the west always preferred at the time.
Britain was more of a player now The u.s has inherited that Mantle and the uh, the baghdad pact a bit bit the dust Because although we the brits managed to round up iraq and the shah of iran And turkey and pakistan Uh, it fell apart through bickering through regime change in Iraq and then in in the end, uh, the regime changed to end all regime changes in tehran um It it was an utter failure, but it was typical of the way the west tries to create gangs of local powers and and proxies In in in that area and we're seeing the same thing again now with the so-called global Coalition, um, which comprises 80 countries no, no less uh, but which excludes many of the biggest most important countries in the world like china, russia india um nevertheless, um, a The the u.s and and with the british lieutenant these days and the french love the coalition Uh because it allows them to corral many other countries behind their imperialist ambitions and one one of which is to occupy a sliver of syrian land in altan as as you mentioned the forces there on Not well called by the western powers, uh part of the coalition and and This provides a very convenient cover because whenever whenever anything goes wrong Or it was done in the name of the coalition, but the coalition doesn't have an address uh, it doesn't come under any congressional or parliamentary Oversight, it's a it's a wonderful creation.
No wonder they didn't want to wrap it up Even though isis has been defeated in its as a territorial manifestation It's just too handy, uh a tool Right.
Yeah, I like that where it's just essentially a legal fiction in order to help diffuse responsibility Somebody's house blew up.
Well, the coalition dropped the bomb.
We're not really sure if it was the french or who it might have been Exactly, exactly.
That is literally how it's happened There was an occasion, uh when syrian forces in the vicinity of altan Were attacked people got killed And uh, we never got to the bottom of who did the killing.
It was just the the amorphous anonymous, uh coalition But now so as we're talking about Well, and and you know what I haven't been there and i'm not going there.
So who knows exactly what's the situation in fallujah ramadi?
Mosul now the degree of government control the degree of consent for the baghdad government's presence there in these cities now I mean, I really I don't know from there's there's very little journalism out of western iraq these days, but it seems apparent to me that You know the baghdad government doesn't will never really have Sovereignty and control over that land because the people there just won't really accept it because they have essentially no Representation in the government at all and they really are already kind of an autonomous zone and yet The americans are so bad at this essentially They're the ones who made it that way in the first place and they don't seem to have the slightest bit of an idea of what to do about that of what kind of you know Replacement government to create in in iraqi in western iraq there In the predominantly sunni regions there and and even they don't seem to have a plan to use them as a cudgel against um the shiites in baghdad anymore, they still seem to Want to try to win over the baghdad government and and somehow You know pull them away from iran when that's what they've been trying to do really since they put them in power in 2005 and they failed this whole time, but You know what?
I mean?
It just seems like they really don't know what to do They're they're mad at iran for winning all the wars that they fought against them Uh and taking advantage of all the power vacuums that they've opened for them But they don't really have a plan of anything to do about it or even including How to consolidate any sort of authority in western iraq there That's exactly right and and a very similar situation is emerging in eastern syria Where the kurds occupy a similar position to that occupied by the shia Militias in western iraq.
They overlord it uh There are about maybe a million kurds In in the u.s.
Occupied area, but there are one and a half million arabs And they they're not happy they're beginning to demonstrate There are beginning to be assassinations.
This is exactly how isis Got going in western iraq.
This situation is reproducing itself now in eastern syria Now so is it the the ypg militias?
Are they the ones who are in control of raqqa now?
That that's right.
Uh-huh, and that's not a kurdish city, right?
People of raqqa It's far it's a hundred miles from any kurdish majority area Those people are arabs and they are not happy.
They are demonstrating on a regular basis And there are many incidents and and assassinations Yeah, I see what you mean about the parallel with the situation there i'm also reminded of what patrick coburn said About the beginning of iraq war two Where because the turks wouldn't let america invade?uh from turkey They went ahead and contracted with the kurds with the peshmerga in which was you know, iraqi kurdistan was You know semi-autonomous at that point and the peshmerga went ahead and took mosul and the iraqi army fled but then The kurds turned around and left after about three or four days or a week or something like that because it became very clear That saddam's army wasn't really welcome in mosul But they sure as hell were not welcome to replace them either and they better turn around and get back to their land Before it was too late And they made the wise choice to do so at that time Exactly, uh, that that was the wild west of iraq, but there's also the wild east of syria Near the iraqi border And i've been there a few times and uh, even when things were quiet in syria Uh, there were a lot of incidents, uh in in the badlands there and the people of Generally feel no loyalty to any state.
They they they are many of them bedouins.
They come and go uh their families, uh have members in uh in saudi Um, so it's no wonder that that whole area was a fertile breeding ground for isis Yeah um And will continue to be it sure looks like okay So let me ask you this i'd like to ask you all about bahrain But I guess that'll have to be a whole other interview.
Let me ask you instead about um Not necessarily specifically on these attacks in the gulf.
You can comment on that if you want, but just overall, uh, what's your take on?
The level of tension between the u.s and iran right now and do you fear that it might really boil over?
I don't think it will uh boil over uh, although um The trump administration are playing with fire uh, but I I hope And I suspect that there are cool enough heads in the pentagon Uh not to rush into anything precipitate um, the the reality is that the trump administration through its policy of maximum pressure on Iran have created for themselves an impossible situation How could they imagine that they would block all all scott all of iran's oil exports absolutely choking The iranian economy and not expect some blowback iran has been warning for months and months that If the u.s was going to prevent iran from selling its oil and from having an economy Then it would show that it it was able to block the straits of hormuz and prevent the saudi's allies From supplying the world economy with vital oil now that you we've just seen a demonstration That iran means what it says.
Are you convinced of that?
It sort of looked like maybe someone was trying to frame him up I don't buy that uh at all.
Uh, i'm i'm not someone uh, who's not ready to believe the worst of the u.s administration And in in syria in particular there have been fake Instances over chemical weapons But on this occasion, uh credit where credit's due.
I I say the iranians are being really smart with these calibrated attacks No, nobody gets hurt No blood is spilled.
No america.
Not one hair on one american head is harmed So there's no cassus belly There's no pretext to go to uh to war it does make sense.
Yeah But the effect the effect Is immense immense It's it's unbelievable the demonstration that we have just seen What about them doing that right is the supreme leader not even the president but the ayatollah is sitting down with The japanese prime minister right at the time that the ship is being bombed Does that really sound right?
I think that's just a red herring Scott, yeah, you have to remember that the uh, the mediation was mounted Literally just a few days before You recall that the whole idea of him doing a mediation arose in his meeting with with trump And that was just a few days ago.
Yeah, uh, it would not Simply have been enough time for any party to mount the complicated very sophisticated Operations, which which we have seen uh, so But it also seems like the ayatollah might have told the irgc to knock it off, you know I'm, sorry it also seems like the kind of thing where the ayatollah might have told the irgc to knock it off and call off their plan if The japanese prime minister is going to be in tehran that day I don't know.
I mean, I think we're all just speculating.
I mean all we know is what pompeo claims is true.
So It yeah, yeah, but it's important to understand what what's going on it.
I understand what you're saying about Why it makes sense that iran might do that that it's a pinprick, but it makes a big point But without causing you know how it makes sense in the balance for them to do something like that.
I see what you mean It's a demonstration.
Yeah power equation is not what pompeo and bolton think It the power equation is in Iran's favor because of geography because of geography.
Yeah, the the the the tightness of the Straits and and the world economy the reliance especially of asia on on oil and um it trump says, uh, Earlier today or they might uh block the straits, but it wouldn't be for for long.
Well, I got news for him It's not just about physical blocking.
It's about something as prosaic as insurance rates, right?
Insurance rates have just doubled For that that part of the the world doubled it now costs two hundred thousand dollars to take a a typical tanker on one day Through the straits and that's just the beginning of all of the asymmetric ways that they can fight back Um escalating from here i'm so sorry, I gotta cut this off right now I'm, really running late for my next interview, but thank you so much peter.
It's really been great Anytime.
Okay guys, that is peter ford He's the former british ambassador to syria and you can read what he writes over at low blog the great jim loeb's blog low blog Dot com this one is called is the global coalition the new baghdad pact All right, y'all thanks find me at libertarian institute.org at scott horton.org anti-war.com and reddit.com Scott horton show.
Oh, yeah, and read my book fools errand timed and the war in afghanistan at fools errand.us
