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Wall is the improvement of investment climates by other means.
Clausewitz for dummies.
The Scott Horton Show.
Taking out Saddam Hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal.
They hate our freedoms.
We're dealing with Hitler revisited.
We couldn't wait for that Cold War to be over, could we?
So we can go and play with our toys in the sand.
Go and play with our toys in the sand.
No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.
Today, I authorize the armed forces of the United States in military action in Libya.
That action has now begun.
When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal.
I cannot be silent in the face of the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today.
My own government.
All right, you guys.
Introducing Nasser Araby.
He's a journalist from Yemen, living in Sanaa there, the capital, and covering the war for us.
He's previously written many articles for the New York Times and all over the place.
Look him up on Google News.
You'll find a lot of different stuff going way back.
And he runs his own media company called Yemen Alon.
That's Yemen Now.
YemenAlon.com.
Welcome back to the show, Nasser.
How are you doing, man?
Thank you very much.
I'm okay.
Okay.
Well, I'm glad to hear that you're okay.
I mean, it seems like all hell is breaking loose over there.
And we're talking about a country that's been at war for a long time now.
So, I guess, you know, the bottom line of the recent news is that the Houthi-Saleh alliance has broken.
And Saleh reportedly tried to tilt back toward the Saudis and make a deal with the Saudis.
And the Houthis got to him and his men first.
Is that right?
Yes.
This is what happened, exactly, with a little thing that I need to clarify.
Sure.
Please do tell, sir.
Yes.
For the Houthi-Saleh alliance, it was a convenient alliance, more than political and religious or sectarian or whatever.
It was just an alliance of a common enemy.
Not more.
And we Yemenis here were expecting it to come to an end, but not during the war.
So, it surprised us to be during the war with Saudi Arabia.
Right.
So, what happened is the United Arab Emirates succeeded in convincing Saleh and his son, in convincing Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, to gain Saleh, to gain Saleh or to take Saleh to their side.
And what happened then is, before this breaking of the alliance, there was a big conflict between the two allies over their recruitment and the influence over Sana'a and the other places.
So, what happened exactly is, this conflict started in 24 of August, but it reached its peak on December 2, this current December, when Houthis wanted to celebrate the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed, and they clashed with Saleh supporters.
What I wanted to say, what is the most important after the death of Saleh is, this was a big turning point, and it is a big turning point in the conflict with Saudi Arabia, in the Yemeni conflict with Saudi Arabia, not necessarily in the internal conflict of Yemeni, because Saudi Arabia failed by the death of Saleh.
When Saleh was killed, this was a big failure of Saudi Arabia.
All right, now, so, I guess my first big question is, do you know what is happening or what is likely to happen with the army divisions that were loyal to Saleh, who had previously fought the Houthis?
These were former enemies of the Houthis, and as you say, they had this alliance of convenience as long as they were fighting Saudi, but now whose side are they on?
After the death of Saleh, we are at a crossroads, and in this crossroads, we have two directions, only two directions, not three.
The first direction to go is to continue fighting Saudi Arabia's aggression by Houthis, where Houthis now are stronger and dominant.
The other direction is to make it the beginning of the end of Houthis, because this is what Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were planning to do.
But let me tell you something that a lot of people outside Yemen don't know.
What is it?
It is that Saleh miscalculated, Saleh underestimated the strength of Houthis, and also he miscalculated his people or his supporters.
Or his supporters let him down, let me say.
His supporters let him down.
When he called, when Saleh called to uprise up against Houthis, it was like a suicide call, unfortunately, from Saleh.
I'm sorry, you're saying when he called for the people to rise up to defend him from the Houthis, they didn't?
At all.
And this means that the call was not planned, was not studied, was just according to misinformation to Saleh because of some anger and rage because of what happened between him and Houthis.
So we were shocked, everyone in Yemen was shocked of what Saleh did and what happened after he called.
Because you can just imagine a president who is a very strong man, influential, a lot of popularity, yes, but imagine that he was talking about fighting Saudi Arabia for three years, for three years, publicly at least.
And I think he was serious, he was serious.
As Yemeni, I believe him, I was believing him on that, on what he was saying about Saudi Arabia.
But just imagine that he was talking about fighting Saudi Arabia for three years, and all of a sudden he tells you to turn against Houthis who was fighting, who was the real fighter of Saudi Arabia.
So let me tell you why I'm saying Saleh is miscalculated.
First, no one came to help him in his house.
No one.
I'm saying no one.
No one.
No army, no tribes.
Why?
Because of this switch, because of this switch side, it was a crazy one, crazy thing to switch sides in minutes.
So this is one thing.
It was a sudden call from Saleh.
The second thing is that no single fighter, no single fighter from the army who was fighting Saudi Arabia, no single, I'm saying, and I'm responsible for what I'm saying, no single fighter in the front who were fighting Saudi Arabia was under Saleh, was under Saleh's orders.
And while Saudi Arabia and American media for three years saying that the forces of Saleh are fighting Saudi Arabia.
Yes, there are hundreds and thousands of people from the army, from all ranks, who are fighting, yes, but they are not under the control of Saleh at all.
Those who were, who are still loyal to Saleh or who love Saleh or who don't want truth, who hate truth, they are at home without salaries and without anything.
So when Saleh calls them, no one can even come to him because he can't give the taxi to take him, any money.
Yes, go ahead and ask me what you want.
Yes, go ahead and ask me what you want.
Maybe that's not the best choice.
And it seems like that, you know, the Saudis bought that, but for some reason he didn't try, he was just going to backstab the Houthis rather than try to compromise and bring them along in a new coalition.
Let me tell you something important.
Saudi Arabia also miscalculated.
United Arab Emirates also miscalculated much, much, much more than Saleh, unfortunately.
They miscalculated the strength of Saleh.
They miscalculated what Saleh could do for them.
You know, the day when Saleh called the people for uprising, or just before, hours before what he said, Saudi Arabia media and United Arab Emirates media were saying that Samar fell in the hand of Saleh.
Samar fell in the hand of Saleh.
The military bases, and they talked about all Yemen in one day, in one day, you know, media frenzy.
All of it was lies.
Nothing was right, nothing, nothing.
I was laughing, and everybody who knows the reality would laugh also like me.
Saudi Arabia wanted to make a victory from nothing.
One day they were talking about the victory, when there is nothing, no people in the streets, no uprising, no army, no capturing what they said they captured, nothing happened.
But what happened after that is Houthi came to Saleh's street and blockaded the house, and then they went to the places where some people or some tribal leaders tried to act with Saleh.
And they arrested them easily.
In 24 hours, less than 24 hours actually, less than 24 hours, everyone was captured, and Saleh was blockaded.
And they gave him 48 hours as an alternate to hand himself.
So it was a big failure for Saudi Arabia because they also miscalculated what would happen after they, after Saleh, or if Saleh breaks the lie with Houthi.
Because nothing in his hand, nothing in his hand.
Yes, people, they were beating on the anger of people because people now without salaries for 15 months from all parties, from all sections and from all areas and regions, yes.
But people know that it's only killing each other, it's only chaos.
So it's not, they couldn't do anything.
No one would fight, no one, who would fight?
And the people who could fight with Saleh, the army and these things, they can't do anything because no support, no, I mean, nothing from any place.
Even if Saudi Arabia wanted to give them something, they should have done it before, not overnight and they wanted to make this uprising.
So they failed 100%.
But this, of course, failure means, it could mean better or worse to Yemen now, to Qatar.
Houthi now is strong, stronger, stronger at least because he became one, they became one leadership, one negotiator.
But for the strength, it is the same strength.
It is only, you know, he also delivered a message to the outside world that what Saudi Arabia failed to do in three years, in killing or capturing Saleh, I did it in hours.
I want to make sure I understand you right, that you're saying that the fact that the army divisions that were loyal to Saleh and left the government with him and have been fighting alongside the Houthis this time, the fact that they didn't come to his defense shows that they already have really ceded authority to the Houthi political leaders to follow their orders, or they're just free agents now.
And the others, the others who are not with Houthi and who hate Houthi, who hate Houthi, they couldn't do anything in 24 hours at all because they are not equipped, they are not financed, they are not organized, it's just a cold.
I see.
In other words, the Houthi leadership has virtually total control over their side of the war against Saudi Arabia and the former kind of coalition alliance with Saleh and his forces has now just devolved under their authority.
From the very beginning of this aggression, not from now, from the very beginning of this aggression.
So people outside were only talking about, exaggerating about the role of Saleh.
Saleh was influential, yes, but in talking, yes, political, yes, politician, yes, good politician, yes.
He has a lot of supporters, a lot of activists who use Facebook and Twitter, but not concrete things, unfortunately.
I saw you say on Twitter that his son has now been killed, his whole political group is basically, you know, completely marginalized at this point.
Yes.
All right.
Now, so, I mean, the obvious question is, so what does this mean for the war?
It means that if this was a chance for peace, it's dead now.
It's a very important thing.
We should focus on this point.
What could happen after this, after the death of Saleh?
What could also happen?
What is the next step?
What could happen, as I told you, is Houthi could continue, Houthi could continue with this strength and then negotiate from one side.
And they can come to an agreement if they want, because it's only one negotiator.
Or the Saudi and United Arab Emirates continue in penetrating the key role, the key players.
The key players for Houthi are the tribesmen, or the seven tribes around the city, called or known as the Kohler tribes.
Seven tribes.
Seven tribes.
This is historically, not only from now, historically, the seven tribes, big tribes around Sana'a, which are known as the Kohler tribes, the Kohler, around.
If they can help Saudi Arabia, a breakthrough can happen.
But I am not expecting this to happen at all, because after what Saleh said, all the supporters in these seven tribes, the Saleh supporters, would join Houthi blindly.
And the only who will remain, who will remain as not supporters of Houthi, are those who are in conflict with Houthi for other reasons, like sectarian or like personal revenge or something like this.
But for national things and patriotic things, they were shocked by Saleh to call, to say that he's switching sides.
And he's switching sides.
He didn't say, I'm going to be with Saudi Arabia, to be honest.
He said that we should uprise up against Houthi.
He called people to uprise up against Houthi.
And this was a big shock.
And he said that war with Saudi Arabia was pointless.
And people were shocked, of course, by this, because they, I mean, Saudi Arabia killed and destroyed thousands of people and thousands and thousands and destroyed all Yemen.
And at the end, you say it was pointless.
It was a big problem for them.
So the key thing is that tribesmen of the seven tribes around Sana'a, if they would help Saudi Arabia or not.
But I am not expecting, after all what happened to Yemen, I'm not expecting them to switch at all, at all, at all.
Because if there were, if they were ready to do anything, they would have helped Saleh, because Saleh is from their tribe.
And Saleh was, you know, they loved him a lot.
But they could not even help him when he was in need for help.
And they could have done a lot of things to help him, at least to rescue him.
But they didn't do.
And it's enough now.
It's enough for anyone.
It's a big evidence that these tribesmen would not do anything in favor of Saudi Arabia, because they would have helped Saleh first.
But now they lost Saleh, and they hate Saudi Arabia very much as a historic enemy, and also as the killer of Yemen and destroyer of Yemen for three years now.
Killer of their sons and destroyer of their country.
We have three things now, three elements.
We have Saleh has tribesmen, Saleh has Ami, Saleh had Baqi.
Ami, I told you, it was nothing, only with the Houthi.
The tribesmen, they are now with Houthi.
They were divided between Houthi and Saleh, but even the home village of Saleh now is with Houthi, at least this week after what Saleh said.
So what is left is his political body.
His political body, it was not that established.
It was not that establishment.
His body was Saleh, and Saleh was his body.
There was no references, and there was no establishment that has its institutions and all these things.
So what is left now is the politicians in his body who need to ally with Houthi or to be marginalized.
I think Houthi would only be successful, only would be successful, and he did this already, only if he gains the loyalty of this body, of the politician of this body.
And this is what he's doing.
The coalition government is still working now.
The president who was approved by the two parties, by the two groups, Saleh and Houthi, are still working.
What's his name, the president?
Saleh Samad.
Okay, I'm sorry, go ahead.
Yes.
He called yesterday for dialogue, and he reassured the people of the political body, the political, I mean, of the PGC of Saleh's body.
And he said we would open a new chapter of alliance and of cooperation, and our enemy is won.
And this is what is expected to happen, because many of the Saleh's body, who did not go to Saudi Arabia, know very well the historic enemy of Yemen.
And they couldn't do anything with Saudi Arabia.
And for Houthi, his success would be a success only if he reassured the Saleh's body, and if he also gains them to his side, and also if he be fair with them in power sharing and in everything.
Of course, he would be with the other hand, as he was.
This is something that I observed from the very beginning of the aggression, and from the very beginning when Houthi came to Sana'a, when Houthi overran Sana'a and captured Sana'a, he was the one with the other hand in everything.
Now he would be without Saleh, which means it would be better.
The situation would be better, because Saleh was a big player, but without concrete things.
He was a big player in spoiling, if I can say, in spoiling, and just in inciting, and just as a famous leader and these things, but not in fixing and not in helping even his supporters.
So he would be a spoiler, not unfortunately.
Not a fixer.
Well, we got it now.
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All right.
So let me ask you about the split in the country.
And I guess who rules Aden?
The Houthis rule everything from Sana'a to the north up to the Saudi border.
But who rules the south?
Is it UAE forces there?
South is ruled by militias of Emirates called themselves, they call themselves the Shirk or the South Separatists.
And they are not controlling everything.
Qaeda and ISIS is or has upper hand in some places like Shabwa and Havamot.
And so Qaeda, ISIS and South Separatists are ruling the south.
And the South Separatists are backed by Emirates 100%.
And they are, you know, United Arab Emirates use them as their agent to do whatever they want.
But Qaeda is also doing whatever they want.
And Qaeda is in link in a way or another or have links in a way or another with the Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood means the people who are under Hadi who is based in Riyadh, who is exiled in Riyadh.
So three different groups in the south.
United Arab Emirates hired, United Arab Emirates supported militias who call themselves the South Separatists.
And the second is the Qaeda and ISIS.
The third one is the people who are against all, against all, against who want to keep the unity.
And who in a way or another in contact with Houthi here because their leaders are here in Sana'a with Houthi.
So there is, there are south people or southerners who are based in Sana'a and who are working with Houthi here in Sana'a.
And they have their own supporters in the south who want to keep the unity of Yemen.
All right, now tell me what's the stage of the siege now?
Because after the missile attack a few weeks ago, two weeks ago I guess, that was shot down but almost hit the airport in Riyadh there.
They announced they were clamping down on the siege and they were not just, you know, shutting down all commercial traffic as they have done for the past two and a half years.
They're shutting down even the airport and the Hodeidah port to Red Cross and other international relief organization, medical and food aid there.
And then there were reports that they started letting some planes land at the Sana'a airport and I guess that's all I know.
But so is the siege much worse now than before or did they start lifting it again or what is the status of that?
The siege is a little bit safe now because there were a lot of aid allowed in from Hodeidah and from the airport of Sana'a.
This is a UN relief, I mean, not commercial.
And there was some commercial in Hodeidah.
But Saudi Arabia is still using it, still using it.
If the international pressure, when the international pressure goes down, they, Saudi Arabia, exploit the situation and tighten the blockade.
What I am now expecting is that what happened in Sana'a because what happened in Sana'a was a big shock to everyone, to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and people outside and even to Yemenis inside and outside.
So they, Saudi Arabia said that Hadi ordered the army to enter Sana'a.
I think they are now, they are now waiting for what Hadi could do.
Because they said the last, last, last, the last card was used now.
Which one?
The last card that Saudi Arabia wanted to play is to break the alliance between Houthi and Saleh.
Now it is broken.
What is next for Saudi Arabia is to enter to Sana'a.
But what is happening now in reality, Sana'a now is more difficult, Houthi is more stronger.
So would Saudi Arabia, would Saudi Arabia come back to tighten the blockade?
This is what I am expecting.
I am expecting that Saudi Arabia would tighten, would come to its dirty games to tighten the blockade.
As if now, what is happening in Sana'a now, it is striking Sana'a day and night and destroying everything, destroying the destroyed places.
Because Saudi Arabia wanted to say, to tell people here in Sana'a that I am, I am with Saleh now.
Saleh was with me and now it is, it is striking every place where Houthi, where they think that Houthi are located.
Houthi are everywhere and there is no places that are captured by Saleh people or Saleh supporters.
So it is just striking everywhere in Sana'a.
But now, yesterday they hit everywhere and the day before and to tell, just to tell people that I am with Saleh and Saleh is with me.
But unfortunately they would, I am expecting them to give up also because they achieved nothing, nothing.
Nothing except them or more than, than destroying the stores or the building or the houses of the people.
But they do not even kill Houthi fighters at all.
Alright, so now the Red Cross is saying, it is almost unbelievable, I don't know.
They are saying 900,000 people have cholera and now they are saying there is an outbreak of diphtheria too.
What can you tell us about that?
For the cholera, yes, there are about 1 million, yes.
And as I always talk with you, cholera was a result of destroying the clean water facilities deliberately by Saudi Arabia.
And diphtheria is there now, yes, as a new, and it is spreading now, a new disease and it is spreading.
And many people were infected and many people were already killed, yes, by this epidemic.
And these diseases are connected to the health system which is destroyed.
No hospitals, no clinics, no medicine, no, I mean it is connected with the blockade, with the Saudi blockade.
And unfortunately Saudi Arabia is supporting these things to kill more and to exercise more pressure on Yemenis.
But I think it always, always backfires, backfires, backfires against Saudi Arabia.
And the last thing, the last thing was what happened between Houthi and Raleigh last week.
Yes, last week, that was also against Saudi Arabia.
Until now it is against Saudi Arabia.
It could be for Saudi Arabia if the tribesmen help Saudi Arabia but this is impossible to happen after what Saudi Arabia is doing.
They are killing also, they are destroying.
Today for example they destroyed the last, last, last, last government building, the last government building in Sana'a.
In the middle of Sana'a, destroyed it.
People were very angry, even people who are with Saudi Arabia or who hate Houthi.
They say why, why are they doing this?
So this is what Saudi Arabia is doing.
Always do it, always do it.
Alright Nasser, well, I guess I wonder if you think that there are any real options now for any kind of negotiated settlement.
Maybe not a peace but some kind of ceasefire, a way to just stop the madness for a minute.
Other than just America and Saudi just choosing to do the right thing because that's not going to happen apparently.
What I can say about this is that negotiation and talks now would be better than before.
Any efforts, let me say, any efforts for negotiation and talks would be better because as I told you Saleh was big influential, yes, big influential figure, big influential politician, yes.
But because of his history with Houthi, he would not give the chance for Houthi at all.
Now the chance is there for Houthi and Houthi is to be or not to be now, to be successful or to be failed.
And even the government and everything, the big blame now would be on Houthi if he did not do anything for the people or if he also becomes a good fighter against the aggression or not.
And this is what people are waiting to see.
All right, well best of luck to you there Nasser.
I really appreciate you coming back on the show.
Thank you very much, Scott.
All right you guys, that's Nasser Arabi on the line from Sana'a, Yemen reporting on the American and Saudi inflicted genocide there.
I'm Scott Horton, you know the deal.
ScottHorton.org for the show.
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