08/15/16 – Philip Giraldi – The Scott Horton Show

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All right, introducing Phil Trawley again.
I had him on last Friday to talk about some things, and then right at the very end of the interview, I realized, I forgot to ask him about the coup in Turkey and the aftermath.
What the hell kind of interviewer am I?
A bad one.
Welcome back to the show, Phil.
How are you doing?
I'm fine, Scott.
How are you?
I'm doing very good.
Very happy to have you back here.
Everyone, you know, Phil, he's the executive director of the Council for the National Interest.
That's the pro-America, anti-Israel lobby in Washington, D.C.
Boy, how we need them.
And then also, he's a former CIA and DIA officer and writes regularly at UNZ.com and the American Conservative Magazine at theamericanconservative.com.
And, in fact, at the American Conservative, the article is called A Very Predictable Coup.
And at UNZ, the follow-up is Erdogan Takes Control.
And I'm not sure if there is another one after that.
But anyway, a big attempt to coup d'etat in Turkey last month, Phil.
Yeah, that's right.
I mean, there's no question, but that a coup d'etat did occur.
But of course, as usual, the devil is in the details.
The question is, you know, who knew about it in advance?
Who might have been behind it?
And how is the Turkish government responding to it in terms of punishing the malefactors?
All right.
So, first of all, who was behind it?
Well, there's no question, I think.
You know, see, the problem is a lot of the information that's coming out of Turkey is from government sources.
And we all know how that works.
And the fact is that they're saying that these generals were involved, these diplomats were involved, these judges were involved, policemen.
I would take that with a grain of salt.
I have what I consider to be pretty good contacts in Turkey, including diplomats, including leading businessmen and that sort of thing.
And they're telling me that a lot of their friends and associates are being arrested who had absolutely nothing to do with the coup and nothing to do with Gulen in any capacity and are being arrested because they're people that may have been critical of the regime at one time or another.
Yeah, which I kind of screwed up in your introduction there.
I should have mentioned that you're a former CIA officer who was stationed in Istanbul back in the Cold War days anyway.
So you're very familiar with this place.
In fact, it's been at least within the last couple of years you've been back to Turkey because you told us about all the ISIS guys raising money on the streets.
Yeah, that's right.
Yeah, I go back to Turkey regularly, although I don't think I'm too welcome at the moment.
And I speak some Turkish and have a lot of friends and former associates there.
Yeah.
All right.
Now, so you know how this works.
I mean, and everybody knows I've been interviewing you for 10 years and you're a straight shooter, but you also have CIA after your name.
So sometimes that means, wow, he's really got the inside scoop.
But sometimes that means, hey, I got to be really suspicious of the things that you think.
For example, you seem very convinced in both these articles that there's just no way that America had anything to do with this.
And yet it seems like Obama was putting out leaks that Erdogan was hightailing it to Germany.
And he's accusing this guy, Gulen, of being behind it, him and his movement of being behind it.
And that guy lives in Pennsylvania, which sounds like a CIA kind of operation to me, just the fact that he's safe here in the USA.
It reminds me of Haftar, the Libyan general who was living outside of Langley for 20 years, waiting for his turn to be reinstalled in power down there, that kind of thing.
So I wonder why you're so sure that the CIA or the military or Barack Obama didn't actually give a wink and a nudge and a green light for this coup.
Well, there are a number of reasons for that.
I mean, the first reason I would give is the fact that for the U.S. government to get involved with the overthrow of an elected government of a NATO member would have been sheer insanity, no matter what that government was doing.
And Erdogan cannot be accused really of doing anything that's horrific in terms of U.S. interests.
So I just think on the surface of it, if you look at the issues involved, I think you would probably agree the preponderance of evidence would suggest that this would be something that no government would be, no U.S. government would be stupid enough to do.
So that seemed pretty brave for Obama.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think we'd be pretty brave for almost anyone.
Maybe, maybe Nixon would have tried it, but I'm not sure.
But I just think that the whole basis of assuming that this is how it happened, that the U.S. was behind it, is foolish.
And I think some of the statements that came out immediately were probably the results of bad information.
You can assume that the U.S. embassy was basically shut down when this was happening.
CIA people were certainly not out on the streets or anything like that.
People were not willing to call up their contacts because that would be a ticket for those contacts to get either shot or imprisoned.
So I think there's a lot of ignorance that was going on.
Same thing happened with Libya.
You know, you're in these situations and it's a developing situation and you've got your contacts, you've got your sources, but there are a lot of good reasons why you're not able to get good information.
And I think the government suffered from that in the immediate during and immediately after the coup attempt.
So that would be how I would look at the U.S. government role on this.
All right.
So now what about the breakdown between the Kamalists versus the Gulenists versus the Erdoganites or whatever you call them?
You've got these three major factions.
And I think in your article, you say it looks like it was the Kamalists.
But I talked with Patrick Coburn from Turkey and he was saying it sure looked to him like it was the Gulenists who were behind it.
But as far as I know, those are really just two wings on one bird.
Well, they're not actually.
The Kamalists basically are secularists.
The Gulenists are religious, although they're progressive religious in that they believe in education and they believe in dialogue with other religions and with other groups.
At least that's ostensibly what the Gulenists are about.
But I think the right answer is that it wasn't Gulenist.
It wasn't Kamalist.
It was a combination of the two plus other people with various other grievances.
And the reason why, again, let's look at the logic of this.
The reason why I believe this is the claim being made by the Turkish government that Gulenists did this is on the surface kind of ridiculous.
Now, Gulenists are basically a movement.
But the movement, the name of the movement means service.
They are not wild crazies by any means.
And if even if you had 60,000 or 100,000 or 200,000 Gulenists who went through this schooling system in Turkey, these people don't become automatons as a result.
They don't become engaged fanatics.
Some of them certainly do.
But the whole idea that a guy in Pennsylvania can push a button and stage a coup with a considerable amount of support, to me, just smacks of a concept that doesn't make any sense.
I'm sure even Gulenists admitted that some of his people were involved in this, and I'm sure they were.
But there were lots of other people, too.
There are a lot of people in Turkey that don't like Erdogan.
And you have to remember that.
When you're saying that the military as an institution, or at least some factions of the military, you could have combinations of Gulenists, Kamalists, and maybe even some former Erdogan supporters who say now is enough is enough.
And they're going to go just because they're colonels together, not because they're in the same religious movement together.
Yeah, that's exactly the way I would put it.
The fact is, there are a number of interests that could come together in this kind of thing.
And that's what I see happening.
And of course, the other issue is, of course, who knew about it in advance?
And it's clear that Erdogan was just about to arrest 3,000 military officers.
And of course, he's arrested military officers in the past, and set them up with show trials, in which no evidence was produced.
These people were sent to jail.
So there are a lot of people that have a thing about Erdogan.
And my strong feeling is that Erdogan, his intelligence service, and probably a certain number of his generals knew what was going on.
And to a certain extent, they were going to let it go on to a certain point, so they could arrest all these people as engaging in a coup, and start the crackdown, which is, in fact, taking place right now.
So I think the timing got thrown off, because they heard they were about to be arrested.
So they moved it up.
But the fact is, I think, it's clear that who benefits from this, it's Erdogan.
And who knew about this, if they were about to stage a bunch of mass arrests, Erdogan.
Yeah, well, now his story is that his brother in law called him and said, man, there's tanks on the streets out here.
What's going on?
And that was how he knew that he better run from his, you know, scheduled stay at his vacation resort there.
But you think that's made up?
Well, so he says, yeah.
I mean, I think to a certain extent, the story has probably been embroidered to make it look like he made a daring escape with an F-16 chasing him, which for some reason or another didn't shoot him down.
So I don't know.
I think that obviously a narrative had to be constructed here that supports the official government view, which is that all of this stuff was done and now justifies a massive crackdown.
I mean, there's 60,000 people that have been arrested.
And this is incredible.
This outdoes Stalin in terms of going after the enemies.
And this is what Erdogan is doing.
So there's a lot of smoke here, but there's certainly some fire.
And I suspect that the when we if we ever find out what really happened, we'll find out that there were there were a lot of things going on behind the scenes.
And I suspect that's what come on.
Now, the other issue we should talk about is the CIA role in this.
Please do go ahead.
Okay.
I have said flatly the CIA was not involved.
I can say that because I was a CIA officer in Turkey, as as you mentioned.
And I've been in touch with lots of people who were CIA officers in Turkey after I left up until relatively recently.
And the CIA just doesn't have that kind of reach in Turkey.
When I would go out from the consulate to have lunch with a British diplomat or something like that, I'd be followed by six guys.
And and you know, Turkish intelligence guys.
And and this was normal.
The embassy and the consulates were watched carefully 24 hours a day by Turkish intelligence.
It's not like you exactly like I could go out and have lunch with a Turkish general.
It couldn't happen.
And I'm saying essentially, there are countries in the world where the CIA can has the kind of reach and the kind of contacts where it can arrange a coup.
Latin America, probably a number of countries where that's true.
But not Turkey.
And Turkey is a place where they have a very efficient intelligence service.
They are very conscious of even through Gulen, though, even if they decided not not having your replacement in Istanbul recruit some officers, but having Gulen spread word through his society.
Let me let me add this to that.
Patrick Coburn, who's no slouch, man, he's the best of the best of them.
He described the Gulen movement in a sense kind of like Opus Dei, where there's like a real kind of solidarity even within these separate institutions.
Almost you could think of it like the neoconservative separate government answerable only to Dick Cheney and George Bush's first term where these guys he's not really the deputy assistant secretary of anything.
He answers to Dick Cheney and and in that sense that it's sort of like a secret society where maybe a colonel in the secret society actually outranks his general or you have people in different departments who really are one chain of command in this separate religious group.
And Coburn said he thought that it was really plausible that the Gulen movement really did operate a lot like that.
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Yeah, I know Gulen people and I guess Coburn does too.
But the fact is, it does have a cult-like quality to it.
But again, I go back to the argument that to stage a coup, you need more than a handful of really dedicated fanatics.
I'm sure they exist.
I'm sure that Gulen knows who they are, and he's in touch with them.
You need a whole lot more people.
And the fact is that you cannot rely on all those people to be fanatical.
I mean, it's that simple.
I cannot envision a circumstance in which a guy in Pennsylvania could give the order and this thing would happen the way it happened in Turkey, because it required people at all kinds of levels, people sharing information.
And I just do not see the dynamic of it working.
I mean, if you're trying to figure out how you would do it, if you were trying to do it, and the way you would have to do it in a place like Turkey or almost anywhere else, is you would have to get major components of the military to come out with you.
And that didn't happen.
And it was so the idea that the Gulenists had penetrated all these levels of the military, of the judiciary, of the media and everything like that, to me, I think is a stretch.
I think it's just, it doesn't fit what happened here.
And I think in practical terms, for someone to engineer that kind of event, I think is well beyond what what anyone like Gulen would have been capable of doing.
All right, now, so that's my viewpoint.
Now, you know, Cormier is a smart guy.
And what he says is plausible.
But as I said, in the beginning, there are a lot of things we still don't know about.
Yeah.
And in fact, you know, I may be connecting more dots.
I don't think he ever said anything about he believes the CIA had Gulen do this through Pennsylvania, that kind of thing.
But he was just talking about the Gulenist plot inside Turkey.
So I was sort of adding to it that, you know, this other part about how, how the the word could have come down to them if their loyalty is really that tight.
So I don't want to mischaracterize Coburn there.
I think he was speaking strictly domestically.
If the CIA had independently from the White House come up with a plan to overthrow Erdogan, I think how dangerous that would be, not only in terms of the actual event itself, but in terms of what would happen to the CIA when when this eventually would leak, the CIA would cease to exist.
So it's a it's kind of a, you know, there's a lot of important to me in the story of the simple story.
Yeah, it was Gulen.
Yeah, it was the CIA that there are a lot of implausibilities, major implausibilities in that kind of account.
Yeah.
All right.
So and now the aftermath, I mean, this is one indicator.
It's not necessarily the proof, but clearly he's taking advantage here and just rounding up.
It's almost like he's like the debauchification of Iraq or something.
He's just kicking all the Gulenists and the Kamalists to out of power.
Yeah.
And anybody else who was suspect in any way at all or, you know, it's this typical kind of purge mentality that everybody has a little list, right?
Like the Lord High Executioner.
And they put all the lists together.
And if you're on the list, you get it's like, you know, the travel list for the U.S. government.
You never get off it.
And so everybody put their lists together and they just keep arresting more and more and more people.
Today, he arrested, I think, 72 judges.
So it just keeps going.
And these are all people that are from the Erdogan administration point of view are people that are not completely loyal, or at least that's what he's surmising.
Well, now they're not being shot at least yet, right?
But they're just being are they being tortured?
They're being tortured.
There's a lot of evidence that they are being tortured.
And of course, Erdogan has proposed that the death penalty be reinstituted.
Turkey doesn't have a death penalty now be reinstituted for these characters.
Yeah.
Well, now, I mean, if it was America and some military officers tried that, and somehow they failed to get away with it, they'd certainly hang for it.
Although I don't know in America now.
Anybody in government could do anything to anyone, even each other and get away with it.
I don't know.
But that makes sense that they would hang the actually guilty.
But it sounds like you're afraid that there's going to be some some real mass murder going on here.
People who, you know, were either just following orders and had no idea what was going on or maybe had nothing to do with anything whatsoever.
It's if they showed up to teach school in the morning.
Well, and also the parliamentary system is broken down in Turkey, where the opposition parties, they're terrified.
I've heard this from friends of mine in Turkey.
The opposition people are terrified.
So they're going along with everything that everyone is saying, including Erdogan disenfranchising some of the politicians who are in parliament, they will no longer have protection.
And he's already accused some of them of being traitors.
And so it's like, you know, there's once you get the you know, the bit between the horse's teeth, and you start rolling with this, there's no stopping it.
Well, they all denounced the coup immediately.
Yeah, they were at night they were denouncing they denounced the coup before Obama did.
Oh, that was going to be my other indication that I was going to bring up earlier was John Kerry's original statement, saying, Oh, yeah, you know, geez, we sure like it when things have continuity.
And then it wasn't for I think, two and a half, three more hours when the coup was clearly failing that then Obama and Kerry came out and said that they were against it.
I thought that looked pretty bad, because they're, they're pretty ham handed about that kind of thing.
Like when the sheriff took over Pakistan in 98.
Madeline Albright was like, Oh, there's a coup.
Oh, they did the same thing with Egypt, right?
Yeah, exactly.
You know, when they disapprove, and you know, when they think that, hey, at least no big deal.
Yeah.
I mean, let's face it, they don't like air to walk.
But to go back to my original comment, I just think that this is a, this is a bridge too far to even be thinking in terms of that kind of thing.
Because these things inevitably leak.
And once they leak, that's it.
You know, they, I don't believe in NATO, you don't believe in NATO, but these, the White House does.
And if the White House wanted NATO to survive, this would be the, the exact way to go the opposite way to destroy it by, by having the United States intervene in a country and overthrowing an elected leader, right?
Hey, well, all the news is that the word on the street in Turkey is that of course, America was behind this.
Yeah.
And that maybe they will leave NATO looks like.
And I don't know you characterize the best you can what you think is going on now with with Erdogan apparently turning toward Russia?
Well, all right.
Two issues there.
I mean, first of all, the Turkish public is buying into the US being involved in the plot because Gulen lives in the United States.
It's an obvious connection to make that Gulen is behind it.
Here's the CIA, Gulen is in the United States.
Therefore, they've been propagandized heavily by Erdogan.
You know, there's no free press in Turkey anymore.
I mean, it's all the, all the media is, is controlled by Erdogan.
So this is all they're hearing.
And so that, you know, that's, that's the, that's the way to look at it, I think.
What was the other question?
Well, just how, you know, politically speaking, that means in Turkey now, America is really on the outs.
And so, and then politically, Erdogan seems to be acting like it too.
Yeah, yeah, no, that's, that's exactly There were more statements against the Europeans today, too, in terms of, you either give us free access to the Europe, or we're, we're going to let the flood of refugees open again.
Erdogan is just is, you know, he's got, he's, he's gone crazy.
But the other thing about the Russians now, I wouldn't get too carried away about the relationship between Russia and Turkey.
Because Russia and Turkey had a decent relationship before, before that airline, airplane was shot down last December.
And, and they're back to a decent relationship.
Now, the relationship is based on the fact that they have commercial issues and tourism issues and other stuff like that, that benefits both of them.
And the whole idea in the US media that suddenly, Turkey is turning to Russia is, is, again, a typical US media, I think, exaggeration.
Well, do you think there's any possibility that, that Erdogan has given up on back in Al Nusra, and is, I mean, because we talked before about how, you know, he was, well, as we mentioned earlier in the show, you sat there and watched Islamic State guys raising money on the streets of Istanbul back a couple of years ago.
But then the Islamic State seemed to have made a really bad choice to decide to start attacking Turkey.
And they've lost Turkey as an ally, and apparently really gained them as an enemy now.
And I just, I wonder whether you think that the policy there has changed since it was a US-Turkish operation to back Al Nusra and friends all this time.
Is there now a wedge in there?
Maybe he has more reason to actually go along with more of a Putinite policy in Syria now.
Well, I think the reality is there are two realities here.
The first is that what Turkey has been doing in Syria is, is, apart from anything else, is very unpopular in Turkey.
The Turkish people, if you look at the opinion polls over the last year, Turkish people are totally opposed, like 80% opposed to any Turkish involvement in Syria.
So that's been one of the issues.
And that's why back before the coup, Erdogan was resetting the policy, both in terms of Russia and in terms of Syria, because it was very, very unpopular.
And he really needed popular support to get the constitutional changes that he wants.
So that, that's, I think, a key issue there.
And the other issue, of course, is the fact that now that the military has been gutted, over half of all officers above the colonel and above are under arrest or hiding.
The Turkish military can't really play much role, the intelligence services will no doubt continue to fool around there.
And, but Turkey will be pretty much, I think, much less a player in terms of what's going on in Syria.
Yeah, you know, I think I did see a headline.
I don't know if I read the whole thing or not, I guess not.
But I think I did see a headline, at least that claim that at least Erdogan was saying that some of the generals that he was arresting were some of the ones who'd been in charge of the Syria policy.
And, you know, and maybe even blaming them that, oh, yeah, whatever was going on bad in Syria, it was these damn nefarious generals.
And in fact, one of them was the one who shot down the Russian plane trying to get me in a fight with my friend Putin, that kind of thing.
Yeah, that's nonsense.
Because the fact is that the generals in the Turkish army has been pushing back against Erdogan for two years now, because it didn't want to get involved in Syria.
And Erdogan was the one that was pushing involved.
And he was using the intelligence service MIT to do most of the dirty work.
The army was really reluctant to get involved.
So that's a useful lie coming from Erdogan.
Yeah.
All right, now, so the US and Russia both are backing the YPG, which is really the government of autonomous Syrian Kurdistan now, Phil, and they just made people probably saw the headlines where they had liberated this town in eastern Syria.
And all the women were taking off their burqas and lighting up cigarettes.
And all the men are shaving their beards off.
And everybody's doing cartwheels in the street, celebrating the fleeing of the Islamic State from their lives, which is pretty nice to see.
But big problem.
Oh, Erdogan, he doesn't like the PKK or their YPG cousins on the other side of the border there.
And he's, I don't know, I guess he hasn't been, or has he?
I don't think he's been bombing Syrian Kurdistan, but he's sure as hell been bombing Turkish Kurdistan and restarting the war there.
And they'd had a ceasefire for what, 10 years or something?
Yeah, it was longer than that.
Yeah.
But yeah, and Erdogan is basically the one that that forced the ceasefire to break down.
He was doing that for political reasons, because the main party that was opposing him in the Turkish parliament had a large Kurdish base.
So he had to make the Kurds look like enemies again.
Erdogan, you know, he's a slimeball.
And he's, everybody praised him for his first 10 years in office when he brought in reforms.
He was doing this and doing that.
But somehow it all went to his head.
And almost anything you look at now, if you look at it, think about it a little bit, you realize what his agenda is in terms of what he's doing.
Yeah.
Well, it seems like, well, to stick with the Kurdish issue for now, how bad exactly is the renewed war against the Turkish Kurds?
Do you know?
Well, I keep hearing a lot on it.
It's horrific.
Apparently, the whole southeastern part of the country is like a military occupied zone now.
People are getting killed all the time that doesn't even get reported.
It's like, it's like Palestinians on the West Bank, they're, they have zones that are military control zones, nobody can go in and go out.
It's, it's, it's unbelievable.
It's, you know, there, there are a lot of tourist sites down in that part of Turkey, people can't go into them anymore, they can't go near them.
Turkey's losing $11 billion a year, I think, in terms of tourist revenue.
I'm not going to go there at the moment, that's for sure.
Well, there's, there's no kind of front.
I mean, it's just completely occupied space.
I mean, like in the 1990s, there was a real war kind of on both sides.
But here, it's just pure occupation.
Yeah, mostly, that's what it is.
They've created like, essentially, the bigger cities down there, like Diyarbakir, they've turned them into like concentration camps where they're completely surrounded by the military and it's a control zone.
And that's what they're doing.
Well, so how long before Turkey goes to war against Rojava?
Ah, well, Syrian Kurdistan, because he's not going to let I mean, that's a real problem sticking between us there, right?
Right, right.
Yeah, that's, that's the fundamental issue that's going to screw up whatever Erdogan is trying to do, because ultimately, to keep his, his, his consensus going, he's got to do something about the Kurds.
And it's either, you know, back off, which I don't see happening, or just intensifying it and exploiting it as a political issue.
Yeah.
Well, I guess the real question is how long before the Americans stab the Syrian Kurds in the back after using them as an effective force against the Islamic State all this time?
Yeah, well, that'll be as soon as they're of less use.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, yeah, like they're all just among tribesmen or whatever.
Okay, now we're gonna hang you out to dry.
Have a good time.
Yeah, yeah.
That's, that's, that's the traditional American way of warfare.
Damn.
All right, Phil.
Well, thanks a lot for coming on the show and talking about all this complicated stuff with us.
I sure appreciate it.
Okay, well, take care.
All right, y'all.
That's great.
Phil Giraldi, former CIA and DIA officer.
He runs the Council for the National Interest at council for the interest.org, the America lobby there in Washington, D.C., and he writes for unz.com and the American Conservative Magazine, a very predictable coup and Erdogan takes control.
And that's it for the show.
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