12/29/15 – Scott Paul – The Scott Horton Show

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All right, you guys, welcome back to the show here.
I'm Scott Horton.
It's my show, Scott Horton Show.
Next up is Scott Paul from Oxfam International.
That's oxfam.org.
Welcome to the show.
Scott, how are you?
Great.
Thanks for having me on, Scott.
It's a pleasure to be here.
I really appreciate you joining us.
It's a very important subject, and it's one that's not getting very much attention because a lot of reasons, I guess.
But anyway, it's the war in Yemen, America and Saudi Arabia's war against Yemen.
You guys have been doing quite a bit of reporting about this.
So I guess, can we just start with the bad news?
Can you break down however you could best characterize the plight of the civilian population of this country under American and Saudi attack?
Well, Yemen is first and foremost a humanitarian emergency.
Right now, more than four out of five people in Yemen need some form of humanitarian assistance.
That makes Yemen the country where more people need assistance than any other country in the world.
And it's, as you mentioned, not being reported.
I think we more or less consider it a forgotten crisis given the scale of need and given the relatively little attention it's received.
At this point, there's more than two and a half.
Even worse than Somalia, huh?
Yeah, there's many more people in need in Yemen right now than in Somalia.
There's actually a number of people, about 100,000 people who either were Somali refugees in Yemen or Yemeni people who have now fled Yemen to go to Somalia to seek safety.
So Yemen is really, you know, it's amongst the worst crises in the world.
And by the numbers, there's more people in need in Yemen than any other country.
We're talking about a conflict that's now spread to 20 of the 22 governorates in Yemen.
There's about 14 million people who lack adequate access to health care.
The health care system is close to collapse.
And about 7.7 million people in Yemen are needing emergency food assistance.
That's the sort of food assistance they need to survive.
So through all of this, all parties to the conflict in Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis, other parties on the ground, have all failed to meet their obligations under international humanitarian law.
And most importantly, have passed by opportunities to seek a durable political settlement.
The good news in all this is it's not too late to salvage peace in Yemen.
There are talks.
There's a political process that began last month that does have some momentum behind it.
And our hope is, you know, as we provide assistance, we're providing assistance to a little bit more than 600,000 people in Yemen.
But there's no way that organizations like AXIOM can meet the scale of need without a durable peace.
So we're calling on all parties to go back to the table, observe the ceasefire that they've agreed to, and set forth an inclusive political process.
Now, I don't know if this is just difficult to answer or impossible to answer, but do you know how many people have died of deprivation in the war?
I mean, they say thousands have died in the fighting, civilians and otherwise.
But, you know, they said back in, you know, last spring that, geez, you know, this is the country, the poorest country in the Middle East already, and imports between 80 to 90 percent of their food.
Now, obviously, people try to make do in other ways and this kind of thing.
But we haven't really heard necessarily about people, you know, dying en masse like they did in Somalia in 2011, for example.
But maybe that's just because of a lack of reporting or maybe I just missed it or I don't know.
No, it's hard to say exactly how many people have died due to deprivation specifically.
You know, you have two and a half million people who have been forced from their homes, and a lot of them have nowhere else to go other than to sort of go out under the open sun and sleep out in the open with no shelter at all.
You've got – I mentioned there's 14 million people that don't have access to health care.
There's entire regions that don't have functioning health facilities.
You know, I think it's difficult to track and figure out how many people have died, but the malnutrition numbers are absolutely off the charts.
And as you mentioned, that's apart from the roughly 2,700 civilians that have been killed throughout the country, about 240 of them children.
Even that is amazing that that count is so low.
That must be a very conservative estimate there after almost a full year of air war here.
Yeah.
And I think the people who maintain those numbers at the United Nations, they're aware of the shortcomings of their methodologies.
But, you know, I think in the interest of credibility, they try to keep a conservative count.
But as you say, if 2,700 civilians is the conservative number, it is pretty frightening to think about what we might learn once the conflict ends about the extent of the damage that this has had on the civilian population.
Right.
Then it'll be left to Allen Hyde and the Lancet and whoever to come and count the excess deaths over the time period from, you know, the one cause or another comparing the death rates.
What a sick business that America, this niche that America creates in the global market, right?
And people come and count the number of people that we starve to death.
And the American role in this conflict has been very confused.
U.S. policy has been very disjointed.
You know, on one hand, the U.S. has called at first privately, now publicly for an end to the conflict.
And according to reports, has pressed the Saudis and other members of the coalition to really pay, to really work hard to achieve peace through the political process.
But at the very same time, there's parts of the government that are pressing forward very urgently to supply the Saudis with more precision weaponry and ordinance that can be dropped in Yemen.
And so you sort of have a situation where there's some very mixed messages coming out of Washington.
And the coalition and the government of Yemen that's sort of given permission to the coalition to continue its bombing campaign is rightly reading that as a lack of political will in the United States to achieve peace.
So for those of you who are listening, who have, you know, who are disturbed by these reports, there's some really very important action you can take.
You can tell your members of Congress that these weapons sales that are going forward to supply the coalition and Saudi Arabia in particular need to be stopped until there's a real clear political process in place so that those weapons don't end up hurting civilians in Yemen.
Yeah.
A recent guest pointed out that if there's any Yemen lobby at all, it's on the side of the war, not on the side of the people being bombed.
There's no one to speak for them other than groups like yours.
And as you just mentioned, regular citizens in the country who are disturbed by this and would like to see something done about it.
But other than that, that's it.
There's not a special interest group in this country that is here representing the victims in this case.
And when it comes to the mixed messages, I think we'll just stick to what they do instead of what they say.
When it comes to billion dollar arms transfers in the middle of this.
And after all, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and the L.A. Times and absolute official media from the highest levels, it's American planes that are refueling the Saudi fighter jets as it's American bombs hanging off of their wings and their F-16s and F-15s that we sold them in the first place.
It's Americans typing in all those GPS coordinates for where to go and drop the thing.
I mean, this is an American war as much as it's a Saudi one.
There's just no denying it at that point.
I mean, it's not like the White House said that the Wall Street Journal had it all wrong or anything like that.
You know what I mean?
That's the story.
Simple as that.
It's America's run over Saudi Air Force.
Yeah.
I mean, the details of U.S. involvement in the coalition and support for the coalition, you know, there might be a report here that, you know, that claims a certain kind of support or report there that claims another kind.
But what's not in dispute at all is that the U.S. is on one side of its mouth saying we want peace and on the other side of its mouth helping one of the parties advance its military objectives.
I'm sorry to interrupt.
We've got to hold it right there and take this break.
When we get back, I'll let you finish your statement.
It's Scott Paul from Oxfam.
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All right, you guys, welcome back to the show.
I'm Scott Horton.
It's my show, Scott Horton show.
I'm talking with Scott Paul from Oxfam International.
We're talking about the massive humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the worst humanitarian crisis on the face of the earth right now.
All caused by Washington, D.C. and Riyadh, of course.
If you don't mind a small tangent here for a second, Scott, I was wondering if you could tell me a little bit more about Oxfam.
Seems like I probably should have been talking with you guys all along, but, you know, I'm a suspicious type.
So I wonder where you get your money and what your agenda is.
And I hope you didn't support the war in Libya like Amnesty International did back in 2011 and things like that.
Sure thing, Scott.
Oxfam is an impartial humanitarian organization.
We go wherever the need is greatest.
We've been in Yemen now for almost 33 years.
Our programs historically there have been very focused on development activities, trying to get youth and women involved in the political process.
And, of course, whenever there's a humanitarian emergency, we try to meet whatever need whatever need people have and to help them fulfill their rights.
We didn't take a position on the war in Libya.
And, you know, in situations like the war in Yemen, much like the war in Syria, much like the conflict in South Sudan, our agenda is to make sure people can enjoy the full range of their human rights.
And in those situations, as in many others, that means first agreeing on a ceasefire and then achieving a durable political solution.
This is a conflict in which there really are no angels.
All of the parties in Yemen have committed some pretty significant violations of the laws of armed conflict, and all of them have passed by opportunities to bring the conflict to an end.
So that's a bit about us.
As I mentioned, we're reaching a bit more than 600,000 people inside Yemen, mainly to help them meet their needs related to clean and safe water, sanitation and hygiene.
All right.
Pardon me for being jerky, but if I could just narrow down that point real quick there, because a warmonger can say, hey, we're always just doing whatever we can to secure the blessings of liberty for the people.
That's why we must have a regime change rather than that's why we must have an immediate ceasefire.
And if I read you right, what you're saying is y'all's thing is there should never be a war, always ceasefire and always negotiate whatever it is.
Or is kind of sound like maybe there was a little bit of wiggle room in there to.
Well, whatever we think will best secure security for people over some medium or long term.
You know what I mean?
Sure.
So, I mean, we're a rights based organization, which means we listen to the people who we're serving.
And what people say they want to determine their own future and determine their own security needs are primarily going to guide our positions.
In most of the conflicts we work in around the world today, what they want most is peace and they want security forces that safeguard their interests, not try to defeat external threats or advance political agendas.
And that that's been our position.
And, you know, the the big conflicts and the big humanitarian emergencies around the world.
But so, like, for example, in Yemen, if the Houthis or al-Qaeda or one of the other sides had pretty much been angels when it came to the laws of war, at least, and and had not violated them within you guys feel like, well, we've got to support them then.
And our policy should be that they should win and and America or someone else should support their side to make sure that the war criminal side doesn't win.
I mean, our position vis-a-vis the U.S. government is always going to be, what do we need to do to make sure people in these crises can fulfill the full range of their human rights?
Nine times out of 10, including in Yemen right now, that's to bring the parties together to achieve an immediate ceasefire and a long term political solution.
It's I mean, it's hard to imagine a hypothetical in Yemen in particular where that wouldn't be true.
I got you.
OK.
And the one thing I'll add to that is I think the main thing that that Yemen's political track now is lacking.
Other than a commitment from the major parties to achieve a durable solution is the involvement of women.
Women have been at the forefront of Yemen's political evolution ever since the overthrow of former President Saleh in 2011.
They've really helped push the limits of what what the Yemeni government will do to provide, not just for their female citizens, but for all of their citizens over a couple of years after that revolution.
And now their exclusion from the peace process has enabled the people who are fighting, I think, to push on with their military objectives rather than seek, you know, seek, seek a peace that serves all of their people.
We've been told that the next round of peace talks will include more women.
And we really, really hope that the parties fulfill their commitment to bring more women into their delegations.
And you're saying this not as some kind of token feminist thing, but that they have a very important role that they have been playing that they are now being excluded from.
It's exactly right.
I can't imagine what I could possibly say that would be tokenistically feminine.
No, no, no, no.
Feminist, I said.
Feminist, I said.
I was just I was just clarifying.
I didn't mean to.
I wasn't being jerky on that one.
I was just clarifying your point, I think, that.
Yeah.
And the point I think is twofold, because, you know, in the first instance, women have been very instrumental in Yemen's political evolution and have a very, very critical part to play in Yemen's political context specifically.
That's on top of the fact that in general, there's a very, very strong, you know, both empirical and rights based case to make for including women in the peace process.
And so far as that, including women typically leads to better outcomes than excluding women.
Yeah.
Well, and so now I guess back to something that you said toward the beginning there, that all sides have not done enough.
They've all failed basically to do enough to have real talks.
But that now there seems to be some real momentum behind them.
And I wonder, you know, if you could describe that maybe a little bit more, that momentum on the international level or on the local level to really sort these things out.
And if you could compare and contrast that with the incentives that they have to keep fighting, for example, the Houthis have gained the capital city.
Do they really want to give it up?
Or, you know, could they be willing to do so?
And what about all the gains that al Qaeda has made with America and Saudi flying as their air force for the last nine months?
Sure.
So last month, the UN special envoy for Yemen convened the major Yemeni parties in Switzerland.
I have to say, getting them in the same room talking to one another was in and of itself a huge accomplishment.
He tried to bring people together way back in May.
And basically they showed up, they stayed in different rooms, they shuttled messages back and forth, and they never even saw each other.
So getting them to talk and agree on a common agenda was a huge accomplishment on the part of the special envoy.
Beyond that, he got them to agree on a framework to first agree to a ceasefire and then meet some very basic, take some very basic steps to build confidence between them.
I think it has to be said that the party's conduct during the talks demonstrated the commitment wasn't actually there to take steps forward.
So it's going to be up to, and I should say the biggest evidence of that is that both parties, both major parties and in particular the coalition, used the declared ceasefire to make military advances.
So now it comes down, as you said, to incentives going forward.
Who has pressure on them to make peace?
Who has something to gain to make peace?
And who gains from continuing conflict?
At this point, most of the parties have a great deal to gain from an inclusive peace process.
The parties, I think, that are most concerned with peace are certain allies of the Houthis that realize they have no political future once the war ends, and the same is true for people associated with the government and the coalition.
So it's really down to international powers like the U.S., like other major powers at the United Nations, to send a clear message to all of the parties that the international community simply isn't going to tolerate more fighting.
And as I mentioned at the beginning of your program, it's awfully hard to send that message diplomatically when you're selling significant amounts of ordnance that you know are going to resupply the air campaign that's taking place.
Yeah, and I guess I don't know if anybody really knows about the new Saudi king and whether if the Americans really write him the riot act, whether he'd care or not.
I mean, and again, I guess as long as they're giving him weapons, it doesn't matter what they read to him.
I think, yeah, and I think people in the administration will say it's more nuanced than that, people are getting the message, they're making progress.
Frankly, I think there's a point we can take away from that, but in the big picture they're being naive if they think that anyone is going to listen to a call for peace while major powers are enabling them with defense assistance and weapon sales.
Oh, and I'm sorry, let me ask you one more question here real quick.
Where is Saleh now?
And I guess I had read that he'd made an alliance now and brought a couple of army divisions with him and joined up with his old enemies, the Houthis that he'd attacked over and over again, empowering them so much in their victories against him that now they're this powerful, powerful enough to take the capital city and all this.
But now he's with them, but he's not their leader, right?
He's just joined up with them, and do you know?
Yeah, the former president Saleh and the Houthis have found common cause in the Houthis' military advance.
So they together comprise one of the parties or a set of parties that needs to be brought back into line and needs to be shown the merits of a peaceful outcome to this conflict.
All right.
Well, thanks very much for doing the show.
I really appreciate it, Scott.
My pleasure, Scott.
Thanks for having me on.
All right, y'all.
That is Scott Paul.
He is with Oxfam at Oxfam.org.
We'll see y'all tomorrow.
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